I miss the days when the ACC had nine teams and a conference schedule when everyone played everyone else twice. If your team won the regular-season title, you could feel pretty confident in saying that you are the best team in the ACC.
Don’t get me wrong: I fully appreciate the value of Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech. Eagles coach Al Skinner is a perennially underrated coach, Hokies coach Seth Greenberg has guided his players through some tough times — ranging from personal problems among his players to the horrors of the shooting spree in April 2007 — and Hurricanes coach Frank Haith always seems to unearth a few guards who can hit three-pointers from anywhere. However, each ACC team now only plays five others teams twice. Is it fair that Clemson played North Carolina and Duke only once, while the Blue Devils got North Carolina and Wake Forest twice?
From coast to coast, the conference tournaments are more important than ever because they can expose teams that built gaudy conference records by piling wins against the dregs of the conference. As Selection Sunday approaches, take a look at the résumés of 10 teams, listed in order of their conference record. Only four or five teams will get in, and the selection committee will have some tough decisions to make.
You make the call. Pick five of these teams and look below to figure out who you left out.
Team A (21-10, 12-4)
No. 7 conference: 4-4 vs. top 5, 8-0 vs. bottom 4
RPI: 57, strength of schedule: 84
3-4 vs. RPI top 50
3 losses outside RPI top 100
Team B (21-10, 10-6)
No. 6 conference: 2-2 vs. top 3, 6-1 vs. bottom 4
RPI: 64, strength of schedule: 69
2-5 vs. RPI top 50
1 loss outside RPI top 100
Team C (22-9, 9-7)
No. 6 conference: 1-4 vs. top 3 , 3-1 vs. bottom 4
RPI: 49, strength of schedule: 92
2-6 vs. RPI top 50
1 loss outside RPI top 100
Team D (21-9, 9-7)
No. 7 conference: 4-4 vs. top 5, 5-3 vs. bottom 4
RPI: 55, strength of schedule: 87
4-4 vs. RPI top 50
3 losses outside RPI top 100
Team E (21-10, 9-7)
No. 4 conference: 1-4 vs. top 3 5-0 vs. bottom 3
RPI: 77, strength of schedule: 112
3-5 vs. RPI top 50
2 losses outside RPI top 100
Team F (21-10, 10-8)
No. 3 conference: 1-7 vs. top 6 6-0 vs. bottom 5
RPI: 25, strength of schedule: 18
3-7 vs. RPI top 50
0 losses outside RPI top 100
Team G (21-9, 9-9)
No. 2 conference: 1-4 vs. top 3 3-0 vs. bottom 2
RPI: 41, strength of schedule: 42
5-7 vs. RPI top 50
0 losses outside RPI top 100
Team H (19-12, 9-9)
No. 2 conference: 2-3 vs. top 3 2-1 vs. bottom 2
RPI: 42, strength of schedule: 10
6-9 vs. RPI top 50
1 loss outside RPI top 100
Team I (17-11, 8-9)
No. 2 conference: 2-3 vs. top 3 3-1 vs. bottom 2
RPI: 70, strength of schedule: 60
6-8 vs. RPI top 50
2 losses outside RPI top 100
Team J (16-13, 7-11)
No. 3 conference: 3-5 vs. top 6 3-2 vs. bottom 5
RPI: 47, strength of schedule: 3
4-8 vs. RPI top 50
1 loss outside RPI top 100
Picking teams from this lot is not easy. Near the top, Team B and Team C have nearly identical profiles, with Team B picking up one more win against elite conference competition but three more wins against the bottom of the heap. Team C, which is in the same conference, has a higher RPI, but that’s about it in terms of an advantage.
And how do either Team B or Team C compare to Team I, which has six RPI top 50 wins and a 2-3 record against its conference’s best teams? Although Team I has a lower RPI, it plays in a tougher conference and has a better strength of schedule. But it does have one more loss outside the RPI top 100. The biggest difference is in overall record, as Team I sits at 17-11, while Team C has 22 wins and Team B has 21. Is it more important to just win or to win against good teams — the kind of teams that will be in the NCAA Tournament?
Team J takes the Team I example to an extreme. Team J is four games below .500 in the No. 3 conference, but it played nearly half its conference games against elite members and won three. It did drop two games to the bottom five teams, but Team J has a respectable RPI and extraordinary strength of schedule. But can a 16-13 team really garner serious consideration?
Answer key:
Team A: New Mexico
Team B: Auburn
Team C: Florida
Team D: UNLV
Team E: Kansas State
Team F: West Virginia
Team G: Minnesota
Team H: Michigan
Team I: Nortwestern
Team J: Georgetown
