Entering the 2009 ACC Tournament in Atlanta, the expectations feel familiar. North Carolina has the top seed and is going for its third consecutive conference title. Duke is No. 3 and looking for its seventh ACC title this decade. That should not be a surprise because the Tar Heels and Blue Devils have dominated the ACC Tournament for decades.
Since 1975, North Carolina or Duke has appeared in the championship game all but three years. In the past 33 years, the Tar Heels and Blue Devils have won 22 of the ACC championships. Only Georgia Tech, Maryland and Wake Forest have knocked off the Tobacco Road teams for the title in the past 20 years.
In addition to conference bragging rights, nine teams have an eye looking toward the NCAA Tournament. Here is what is at stake for those teams.
No. 1 North Carolina
The Tar Heels likely have a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament wrapped up. However, a loss to No. 8 Virginia Tech or No. 9 Miami could open the door for Connecticut, Louisville, Oklahoma, Michigan State or Memphis to take away the Tar Heels’ top spot. North Carolina would prefer to be considered one of the top overall two teams so that the Tar Heels would play in the Memphis or Indianapolis region rather than Boston or Arizona region.
No. 2 Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons are vying with Duke, Florida State and Clemson for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. Wake Forest could rise as high as No. 2 or drop as low No. 4 or 5 if the Demon Deacons lose in the quarterfinals to North Carolina State, which would have to beat Maryland in the opening round. A conference title with wins against North Carolina and Duke would likely lock up a No. 2 seed.
No. 3 Duke
The Blue Devils project as either a No. 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A conference title would likely shore up a two seed. A quarterfinal or semifinal loss might put the Blue Devils on the three or four line, depending on what other teams do. The more pressing concern is finishing better than Wake Forest because one of the two will join North Carolina in Greensboro for the first and second rounds. The other likely will fly south to Miami.
No. 4 Florida State
Leonard Hamilton’s team is finally over the hump and not talking about bubbles entering the ACC Tournament. Instead, the Seminoles are playing for seeding. A semifinal win against No. 1 North Carolina would help legitimize the team’s No. 4 spot in the ACC and could deliver a four seed in the NCAA Tournament. A quarterfinal loss to Clemson or Georgia Tech could drop Florida State to a six or seven seed.
No. 5 Clemson
The Tigers have the fewest wins against the RPI top 50 of the ACC’s five elite teams. Clemson needs a strong game to beat upset-minded No. 12 Georgia Tech and a quarterfinal win against No. 4 Florida State to garner serious consideration for a top four seed. If Clemson comes through with wins in the semifinals or championship game, the Tigers could move as high as a two or three seed.
No. 6 Boston College
The Eagles appear to be fairly safe as an NCAA Tournament team, but a first-round loss to No. 11 Virginia would be unwise with some strong mid-major teams, such as Butler, Creighton and St. Mary’s, joining the bubble in recent days. With an RPI of 58, Boston College would be hard pressed to move into the realm of the top four seeds. However, a strong run in Atlanta could move Boston College up to a five or six seed.
No. 7 Maryland
The Terrapins are the first ACC bubble team in this list. After losing three out of four to end the regular season, Maryland cannot afford a loss to No. 10 North Carolina State in the opening round. The Terps’ profile is already dubious with a No. 67 RPI, three wins against the RPI top 50, and two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. Wins against the Wolfpack and No. 2 Wake Forest might be enough to solidify a bid. A third tournament win, especially if it’s against No. 3 Duke, almost certainly would do it.
No. 8 Virginia Tech
The Hokies’ profile is similar to Maryland’s. Virginia Tech has a No. 63 RPI, two wins against the top 50, and two losses outside the top 100. Virginia Tech’s win against Wake Forest doesn’t look as good as the Terps’ win against North Carolina. Virginia Tech likely needs to reach the championship game to seriously rejoin the discussion for an at-large bid.
No. 9 Miami
The Hurricanes have an intriguing profile in comparison to Maryland and Virginia Tech. Miami has a No. 52 RPI and only one loss outside the top 100, but the Hurricanes have only two wins against the top 50. Miami has played a comparable schedule to the others. With fewer bad losses, the Hurricanes could gain the most ground by proving they can beat quality teams. They will get that opportunity in the quarterfinals against No. 1 North Carolina if they can get past No. 8 Virginia Tech. That opening-round game is essentially a bubble elimination game.
