Selection Sunday is barely a month away, and the top teams are battling for a No. 1 seed as heartily as bubble teams are fighting just to make the field.
At this point, Syracuse and Kansas are in excellent position to grab two of the four No. 1 seeds in the tournament. Both teams have only one loss — to an RPI top 25 team — and have combined for 12 wins against the RPI top 50. They rank among the top 15 in overall strength of schedule and top 50 for non-conference strength of schedule. There’s little debate that the Orange and Jayhawks are top seeds right now. The only question is which team would be the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament.
However, filling out the other two No. 1 seeds is more challenging. Among other teams, the list of contestants for those spots includes a bunch of Wildcats — from Villanova, Kentucky and Kansas State. If you rely on the polls and win/loss records, Villanova and Kentucky look like locks for those top seeds. They rank No. 2 and No. 4 in the AP poll, respectively, and No. 2 and No. 3 in the coaches’ poll. Both teams have only one loss entering this weekend.
Although they own impressive records, Villanova and Kentucky reside near the top of the polls because they benefit from national press coverage. With stars like Scottie Reynolds, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins — plus high-profile coaches in Jay Wright and John Calipari — the Wildcats from Pennsylvania and Kentucky are basking in the media spotlight and reaping the rewards. However, if you focus on results, the Wildcats from Kansas have an equally compelling — if not better — case for a No. 1 seed.
Although Kansas State sports four losses, the team has twice as many wins against the RPI top 50 than Kentucky. Kansas State also has more wins against the RPI top 25 than Kentucky and Villanova combined. Kansas State’s victims include Baylor, UNLV and Dayton — all on the road or at neutral sites. At home, Kansas State also can crow about wins against Xavier and Texas.
In contrast, Kentucky’s only win against the RPI top 25 came last weekend in Lexington against Vanderbilt. Other solid wins for Calipari’s club include Connecticut, Louisville and Mississippi. However, the sum of Kentucky’s parts is a schedule ranked No. 68 overall. Its non-conference schedule strength is less impressive at No. 123. Calipari kept his team close to home until SEC play, venturing out to play only one true road game, a 90-73 win at rebuilding Indiana.
In Kentucky’s defense, it’s not the team’s fault that North Carolina and Connecticut have been inconsistent this season. In most years, wins against the Tar Heels and Huskies would easily be part of the profile of a No. 1 seed. But those teams’ struggles are Kansas State’s gain. Coach Frank Martin had his team ready for the second toughest conference, according to the RPI, after playing the No. 30 most challenging non-conerence schedule. Thanks to the Big 12’s strength, Kansas State has now played the second toughest schedule in the country.
Villanova presents a tougher challenge to Kansas State’s bid for a No. 1 seed. Wright’s Wildcats have a better marquis win at this point — at home against Georgetown — thanks to Texas’ recent slump. If the Longhorns finish strong and the Hoyas fade in Big East play, that could change by Selection Sunday. But right now, Villanova’s win against the Hoyas is great, and the Wildcats will go for the regular-season sweep in Washington, D.C., today.
Besides the win against Georgetown, Villanova also can tout its wins against Dayton, Mississippi, Maryland and Louisville, all of which are in the RPI top 50. Perhaps equally important, the Wildcats have four wins against Marquette, Notre Dame and Seton Hall, all of whom are hovering right outside the top 50. Right now, it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats from Kansas State outdueling the Wildcats from Villanova for a No. 1 seed.
However, in the next few weeks, Kansas State could have an opportunity to displace Villanova. Villanova has benefited from a comparatively easy start to its Big East schedule. Overall, Villanova has the No. 71 ranked schedule, but the team ranks only No. 174 for its non-conference schedule. The overall strength of schedule will increase significantly when the Wildcats play at Georgetown, West Virginia (home and away), vs. Connecticut, at Pittsburgh, at Syracuse and at Cincinnati by the end of the season. If Villanova drops only one or two of those games, the Wildcats will sew up a No. 1 seed. However, if the team struggles and drops four or five of those games, the door will be open for a team like Kansas State to move to one of the top lines in the NCAA Tournament.
In comparison to Villanova, Kansas State’s final few weeks present only one major challenge: a rematch at Kansas. The Jayhawks escaped Manhattan with an 81-79 overtime win, and Martin will have his Wildcats ready to exact revenge in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Besides that road trip, Kansas State’s only games away from Manhattan are at Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech — all of which are winnable. If the Wildcats finish strong and pick up a road win at Kansas, they can enter the Big 12 Conference Tournament feeling confident that they are on pace for a No. 1 seed.
