For the fifth time in six years, Maryland prepares for the stretch run as a bubble team. Although the Terrapins sit precariously close to the bubble, they also have the profile of a team that could cause trouble in the NCAA Tournament, and the emergence of a senior guard not named Greivis Vasquez might be the ticket to glory in the Big Dance.
After an impressive 6-2 start to conference play, everyone seemed to assume that the second-place ACC team would earn a bid to the tournament. But the Terrapins’ profile doesn’t back up that assumption. Of those six wins, four were against the bottom third of the conference: North Carolina, North Carolina State, Miami and Boston College. It’s not Maryland’s fault that the Tar Heels are in a funk this season, but the team doesn’t deserve any more or less credit for slamming North Carolina, ranked No. 80 in the RPI, than Gonzaga should get for beating Portland, ranked No. 78.
As the middle of February passes, Maryland has only two wins against the RPI top 50 thanks to the Terrapins’ regular-season sweep of Florida State. Besides those two wins, Maryland has whiffed on each opportunity to pick up a marquee win, with losses to Wisconsin, Villanova, Wake Forest and Duke. This past weekend’s embarrassing 21-point defeat to the Blue Devils, Maryland’s biggest rival, is especially stinging.
If the selection committee had to decide the field on the afternoon of Feb. 15, Maryland would probably be in the NCAA Tournament. But the Terps could easily be among the final four teams even though few experts are discussing the team as in danger of missing the tournament. Somewhat paradoxically, Maryland has the look of a team that could make a fairly deep March run — if they make the tournament at all — and the Terrapins only need to make subtle tweaks to become a truly potent squad.
Maryland is one of only nine teams to rank in the top 25 for offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. On offense, the team shoots 38.6 percent from three-point territory, good for No. 27 in the country. And they don’t let teams beat them from behind the arc, as opponents shoot only 32.1 percent from three-point range. That improvement might be the biggest defensive change from last season, when Maryland let opponents shoot 34.7 percent from three-point territory. That liability led to an 89-70 blowout to Memphis in the second round of the NCAA Tournament when the Tigers hit 10-of-19 three-pointers to build an early insurmountable lead.
Although the team’s efficiency statistics are strong, they might be even better if senior guard Eric Hayes gets more involved on offense. A Terp fan might wonder how a senior who already plays 30.4 minutes, which is No. 2 on the team to Vasquez, needs to have an even bigger role. However, despite his playing time, Hayes is only involved in about 15.5 percent of Maryland’s offensive possessions, according to Pomeroy’s team-by-team breakdowns. And that’s not enough involvement for a player who shoots 45.2 percent from three-point range, 53.5 percent from inside the arc and 92.3 percent from the free throw line.
In comparison to his teammates, Hayes is the No. 6 offensive weapon, behind Vasquez, Landon Milbourne, Sean Mosley, Jordan Williams and Adrian Bowie. Cliff Tucker and James Padgett play fewer than 16 minutes per game, but when they’re in the game, they also have a higher percentage of involvement on offense than Hayes does. Coach Gary Williams needs to make sure that Hayes becomes more than just a decoy down the stretch. For his part, Hayes must be more active on offense and work to get open. With a great guard like Vasquez, opponents must constantly follow him around the court, which should give Hayes more room to operate.
If Williams can devise a few extra plays to go Hayes’ way each game, he could easily become involved in about 20 percent of the team’s possessions. That doesn’t mean he has to force a shot every time he touches the ball. But based on his shooting percentages, Hayes already knows what a good shot is. So if Maryland feeds him more, at least to match the offensive importance of Milbourne, the Terrapins’ offensive efficiency could soar closer to the top 10 by the beginning of March Madness.
For the record, in the past four NCAA Tournaments, 21 of the 25 teams that had offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in the top 20 reached at least the Sweet 16. And right now, that means the Terrapins would probably be one of the most dangerous No. 7-12 seeds in recent memory.
