William & Mary has been playing basketball for 104 years and never received an invitation to the Big Dance, one of 32 Division I teams that haven’t made it. With a few more wins and a little bubble love, the Tribe will set school history this season with a trip to the promised land of the NCAA Tournament.
At 19-7 as of Feb. 17, William & Mary will enter the CAA Tournament as one of the favorites to score the conference’s automatic bid, which would make Selection Sunday far less stressful for coach Tony Shaver and his Tribe. William & Mary’s biggest competition will come from Old Dominion, which claims two of the Tribe’s five CAA losses. Two of those conferences losses could jeopardize an otherwise spectacular season.
Entering conference play, William & Mary sported a top 35 RPI on the strength of three huge wins against Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland. The Tribe took out the two ACC foes on the road, too, to goose the RPI even higher. In addition, William & Mary served notice in its first CAA game by taking out VCU, a perennial CAA favorite.
However, the Tribe sputtered against UNC-Wilmington and James Madison, two teams with an RPI below 200. Those are ugly losses that might stick out like a sore thumb to selection committee members. But that would be a disservice to William & Mary and trivialize the team’s fantastic non-conference wins. And the Tribe hasn’t slacked off much in conference play. As of Feb. 17, the Tribe remains in the RPI top 50, ranked No. 48, and are 3-3 against the four other top CAA teams.
Before William & Mary starts thinking about setting school history with its first trip to the NCAA Tournament, the Tribe will likely celebrate another rare feat. With one more win, the Tribe will notch its 20th win of the season, which would be only the third time in team history they reached that total. With Iona, Towson and a revenge game at UNC-Wilmington, the Tribe could easily have 22 wins entering the conference tournament.
If William & Mary reaches the semifinals of the conference tournament and loses to Old Dominion for a third time this season, the second week of March will seem like an eternity leading to Selection Sunday. The Tribe has a profile that looks better than bubble teams like Wichita State, Mississippi and Seton Hall. However, some bubble teams, like Connecticut, Louisville and Marquette, have the luxury of notching a marquee win against top 10 competition. Will the selection committee dock William & Mary because the Tribe don’t play in the Big East? If the Tribe can get to 23 wins, committee members would be making a huge mistake in taking a middle-of-the-pack major conference team over a mid-major powerhouse that has proven it can hang with the big boys from power conferences.
