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Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 1.0

Only 22 days remain until Selection Sunday, the Christmahannukwanzakah of March for college basketball fans. The bracket projections turn to reality shortly after 6 p.m. EST March 14. In the days following Selection Sunday, office productivity creaks to a halt as bracket brainiacs nationwide crunch the numbers in search of the perfect picks.

With about three weeks to go before Selection Sunday, the Bracket Breakdown’s initial outlook foresees a remarkably stable group of teams competing for the 34 at-large bids. The top 36 teams all appear to be safe picks as participants in the Big Dance. That makes the last eight in the field — plus Virginia Tech for good measure — as the only teams that the Bracket Breakdown considers in danger of a collapse. Of course, those teams will start to sweat if they go on losing streaks to end the regular season. And as usual, conference tournaments can wreak havoc when teams like Butler and Northern Iowa allow a second team to represent the Horizon League or Missouri Valley Conference, respectively, which smell like one-bid conferences right now.

During the next few weeks, Bracket Breakdown will publish mock brackets on Mondays and Fridays until Championship Week, when the frequency will increase as the field crystalizes. From the emergence of the Atlantic 10 as one of the top conferences to the invitation of William & Mary for the first time in the Tribe’s 104-year history, here is Mock  Tournament 1.0. Take a look, and submit a comment if you think we’re off base. Of course, if you agree with our projects, feel free to comment about that, too!

1

Kansas

Syracuse

Purdue

Villanova

2

Georgetown

Duke

Kentucky

Kansas State

3

Wisconsin

West Virginia

Temple

Pittsburgh

4

New Mexico

Texas

Wake Forest

Tennessee

5

Ohio State

Michigan State

Georgia Tech

Richmond

6

Vanderbilt

Butler (Horizon)

Xavier

BYU

7

Old Dominion (CAA)

Dayton

Texas A&M

Baylor

8

Missouri

UNLV

Gonzaga (West Coast)

Oklahoma State

9

Illinois

Charlotte

Clemson

Florida State

10

Virginia Tech

Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)

Rhode Island

UAB

11

William & Mary

Cincinnati

Louisville

Maryland

12

Marquette

California (Pac-10)

Utah State (WAC)

Siena (Metro Atlantic)

13

UTEP (Conference USA)

Kent State (MAC)

Cornell (Ivy)

Oakland (Summit)

14

Murray State (Ohio Valley)

Sam Houston State (Southland)

Weber State (Big Sky)

Charleston (Southern)

15

Santa Barbara (Big West)

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

North Texas (Sun Belt)

Morgan State (MEAC)

16

Coastal Carolina (Big South)

Stony Brook (America East)

Robert Morris (Northeast)

Lehigh (Patriot)

Jackson State (SWAC)


Last Eight In:

Northern Iowa (if needed)

Rhode Island

UAB

William & Mary

Cincinnati

Louisville

Maryland

Marquette

First Eight Out:

South Florida

Mississippi

Seton Hall

VCU

Saint Mary’s

Connecticut

Utah State (if needed)

Washington

Conference
Breakdown:

Big East: 8

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

Atlantic 10: 6

Big Ten: 5

Mountain West: 3

SEC: 3

CAA: 2

Conference USA: 2

22 one-bid conferences

3 Comments

  1. Mike I have been enjoying your articles…up until now TN as a 4 seed and Vandy as a 6th seed? Vandy has opened up a double can of whoops on TN. Vandy beat them at home and away .
    Vandy is also coming off an impressive road victory over Ole Miss.
    At the very least Vandy will get a 5 seed, at best a three .

  2. Michael Protos

    Good points, s.martinup.

    The difference between Tennessee and Vanderbilt is minimal right now. I have Tennessee as the last No. 4 seed and Vandy as the top No. 6 seed, which means there are only four teams between the two. As of 1 p.m. EST on Feb. 20, Tennessee has the best win of the two — perhaps the best win of any team this season — with its home victory against Kansas. Plus the Volunteers have no losses to teams outside the top 100.

    Vanderbilt has a huge opportunity today against Kentucky to legitimize a strong start to the season marred only by a loss to Western Kentucky. Besides the wins against Tennessee, the only other high-quality wins are at Saint Mary’s and vs. Missouri.

    Of course, in your defense, Tennessee has no wins against any top 50 teams besides that win against Kansas. I place major value on marquee wins. Based on recent years’ seedings, the selection committee has demonstrated that it rewards teams that can prove they can beat the best. Kansas is undoubtedly a No. 1 seed, and any team that beats the Jayhawks will be rewarded. The same could very well be true of Kentucky. If the Commodores take care of business, check out where they end up in Monday’s Mock Tournament 2.0.

  3. Even though I dont believe that these two teams(Vandy TN) are equal or close to being equal. The upper hand most certainly should go to Vandy since they beat TN twice in games that where not really close. You are 100% right that Vandy has it’s destiny in their own control a win today certainly makes them a legit contender come March.
    Keep up the good work!!!

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