Entering the ESPN BracketBusters event this weekend, the Colonial Athletic Association had possibly the most to gain. Twelve games later, the CAA lost more ground in race for the NCAA Tournament than any other conference.
According to the RPI, the CAA is the 12th best conference in the country. But the conference’s top teams lost to the cream of the crop from the Missouri Valley Conference, Southern Conference and Western Athletic Conference. William & Mary, which has one of the CAA’s best profiles for an at-large bid, suffered the most damaging loss in a road game against Iona, ranked No. 92 in the RPI, by 16 points. The only elite CAA team to win was VCU, which won a home game against Akron, ranked No. 100 in the RPI. The rest of the CAA pack didn’t fare much better as the conference ended BracketBusters with a 3-9 record.
Old Dominion, Northeastern and William & Mary had the most to gain in their BracketBusters match ups. But Old Dominion couldn’t solve Northern Iowa’s suffocating defense en route to a 71-62 loss. Despite the defeat, the Monarchs have a solid résumé anchored by a marquee win at Georgetown. Old Dominion doesn’t have too many other great wins to brag about, but the Moncarchs have notched good wins against Charlotte, William & Mary (twice) and Marshall. As co-leader of the CAA, Old Dominion should receive an invitation to the NCAA Tournament even if the Monarchs lose early in the CAA Tournament.
Unfortunately for the CAA, the Monarchs are the only team that can feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament prospects. William & Mary has stumbled too many times since racking up non-conference victories against Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland. The Tribe has two ugly losses to James Madison and UNC-Wilmington, both of which have RPIs worse than 200. The loss to Iona in the BracketBusters event, which was televised on ESPNU, might be the death knell for the Tribe’s tournament aspirations.
After starting 2-7, Northeastern had won 16 of 18 games heading into its home match up against Louisiana Tech in the BracketBusters event. The best wins were against Kent State and CAA-foes like Old Dominion and VCU. The Huskies likely needed to beat Louisiana Tech to prove that their turnaround was complete. However, a three-point loss drops Northeastern to 18-10 and likely in need of the CAA’s automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament.
The lone member of the CAA elite to win a BracketBusters game was VCU, which stands at No. 61 in the RPI. The Rams have a couple of quality wins against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. But those are offset by bad losses to James Madison and Western Michigan. VCU closes the regular season at Old Dominion, which is an opportunity to pick up a quality road win. That would be the team’s fifth win against the RPI top 50. Even if the Rams enter the CAA Tournament with a 21-7 record, VCU almost certainly would need to win the automatic bid to reach the Big Dance.
Come Selection Sunday, the second-to-last weekend of February will likely be one of the big reasons why the CAA remains a one-bid conference when the selection committee reveals the brackets at the end of the second weekend of March.
