In recent years, the two teams that bookend Tobacco Road have garnered so much national praise that by March, many college basketball fans are reciting their ABCDs: Anybody But Carolina or Duke!
But this year has a different feel. North Carolina has suffered a full nuclear meltdown, and the ACC has only one representative in either poll: Duke. And for some reason, the Blue Devils don’t seem to be receiving much attention. However, in about six weeks in Indianapolis, the basketball nation will likely be wondering where in the world these Devils came from.
Entering the final week of February, Duke possesses the most potent offense in basketball with an efficiency rating of 123.6, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. To better appreciate Duke’s offensive prowess, consider that only 14 teams in the past six NCAA Tournaments have had an offensive efficiency rating of 123.0 or better. Nine of those 14 teams reached the Final Four, and four of them cut down the nets in the past five years. Of those 14 teams, only Wake Forest in 2005 failed to reach the Sweet 16, which can largely be attributed to a terrible defense that was ranked No. 72 in defensive efficiency.
The trio of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith runs Duke’s offensive juggernaut. As Ken Pomeroy’s team reports indicate, Scheyer is one of the most productive offensive players in the country. His statistics back up that rating: 18.9 points per game, 39.8 percent shooting from three-point range, 88.5 percent shooting from the free throw line and a better than 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Combined, the three lead Devils average 53.7 points, 13.5 rebounds, 10.6 assists and 3.9 steals per game. They each shoot better than 39 percent from three-point range and 77 percent from the free throw line.
Besides the big three, Duke has some key role players who can take the pressure off Singler, Smith and Scheyer. The Plumlee brothers, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek give coach Mike Krzyzewski more depth in the frontcourt than he’s had in years. The Blue Devils are perilously thin in the backcourt. But Scheyer and Smith show no signs of diminishing production despite averaging more than 35 minutes per game.
Duke also has a good shot at making a deep NCAA Tournament run because the team is well balanced. Duke ranks No. 12 in defensive efficiency and is the second-best team in the nation at guarding the three-point line. That’s a critical skill to have in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament, when many upset-minded teams use the three-point line to score in bunches.
The scary part about Duke is that the Blue Devils figure to be an even better, more balanced team next season. Duke has Stephen Curry’s baby brother, Seth, sitting on the bench as a sweet-shooting transfer from Liberty. Curry averaged 20.2 points per game and hit 102 three-pointers last season. In addition, Duke will add five-star recruit Kyrie Irving to provide more depth at point guard, and freshman guard Andre Dawkins will have one season of experience under his belt.
But these Blue Devils are focused on the present, with senior guard Scheyer prepared to lead Duke to the promised land of the Final Four for the first time since 2004. Unless this team runs out of steam in the next few weeks, only bad luck — meaning drawing Kansas in its bracket — will keep Duke out of Indianapolis.
