For the Conference USA, Selection Sunday will be stressful regardless of which team wins the conference tournament and automatic bid.
UTEP enters the conference tournament on a 14-game winning streak and has not lost since dropping its only Conference USA game of the season at Houston Jan. 13. Despite a strong 24-5 record, the Miners have only three wins against the RPI top 50 — two against No. 40 UAB and one against No. 46 Memphis. The Miners cannot afford to lose in the quarterfinals against SMU or Central Florida. For UTEP to feel secure about its at-large chances, the Miners probably need to make it to the championship game.
Although the conference tournament favorite has more work to do, the No. 2 seed, UAB, might be in better position to earn an at-large bid if needed. The Blazers hope that the selection committee values its 23 wins, which include a home win against Butler, one of the RPI top 25 teams. UAB has 11 wins on the road or at neutral sites, and two more in the Conference USA tournament might be enough to book the Blazers a trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Memphis is in a similar position as UTEP with a gaudy record but few quality wins. The Tigers are 23-8 and have two wins against the RPI top 50 — but both of those came against UAB. Memphis came close to knocking off Kansas and Tennessee, but the Tigers came up short. And if they don’t win the automatic bid, their run toward an NCAA Tournament bid might likewise fall short.
The biggest wild card in the Conference USA tournament is Tulsa, which is hosting the tournament. Tulsa has lost only twice at home this season, but the Golden Hurricane has no wins against the top three teams in the conference. If Tulsa wants to live up to its lofty preseason expectations, the Golden Hurricane will need to knock off Rice and Marshall before likely facing UTEP in the semifinals and either Memphis or UAB in the championship game. It’s not inconceivable for the home team to win four games in four days, but it’s a lot to ask for a team that hasn’t posted more than two straight wins since mid-January.
Another sleeper to win the conference championship is Marshall. The Thundering Herd have received less press coverage than UTEP, UAB and Memphis. Besides a five-game losing streak in the middle of conference play, Marshall went 23-3 to start and end the season. Despite the record, Marshall lacks any quality wins and is not a viable at-large candidate. But the Thundering Herd have one of the most dominant defensive players in the nation in Hassan Whiteside, who averages 5.4 blocks per game. He adds 13.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game to give the Thundering Herd a bona fide game-changer.
The Conference USA figures to place two teams in the NCAA Tournament if the favorites take care of business and reach the conference championship game. If a team seeded six or lower reaches the championship, the conference might slip back to being a one-bid conference yet again.
