Columns

Bracket Breakdown: How the Mountain West Will Fare

The Mountain West Conference demonstrated that it’s a league on the rise as it doubled its number of NCAA Tournament participants from two in 2009 to four this year. But are they ready to dance with the likes of the Big East and SEC?

New Mexico Lobos (29-4, 14-2 MWC)

No. 3 seed, East Region

Regardless of what goes on in the tournament, this will be regarded as the best season in New Mexico’s history. The Lobos won a school-record 29 games — and counting — and claimed the MWC regular-season championship. The only sour note of the year so far was struck by San Diego State, which handed the Lobos half of their losses this season, including one in the tournament semifinals Friday.

The recompense to the Lobos’ exceptional season is a No. 3 seed in the East Region and a game against a I-still-can-not-believe-I-am-here Montana, a team that booked its NCAA Tournament ticket by rallying from 22 points down to win the Big Sky Tournament championship. New Mexico will handle those cats easily and advance to the second round, where Marquette will be waiting.

And although Marquette is a No. 6 seed, this will be where the dream season will come to an end for the Lobos. The Golden Eagles, a Big East team, have been tried repeatedly this season, while New Mexico, part of a far-more-modest conference, has not. It will be close, but Marquette will prevail. Still, the Lobos will go home having won 30 games, an incredible feat.

Brigham Young Cougars (29-5, 13-3)

No. 7 seed, West Region

The Cougars would be considered the best team in this conference hands down if it wasn’t for the simple fact that New Mexico, the actual best team in the MWC, swept them this season. Otherwise, BYU was almost flawless in a season that saw them win a school-record 29 times.

Getting it done both offensively and defensively is what drove the Cougars to this season of distinction. BYU is the second-highest scoring team in the nation at 83.0 points per game. But in the midst of their high-octane offense, they still find time to play defense. The Cougars hold their opposition to 65.2 points per game. That’s a point differential of 17.8 points.

That dangerous combo — along with the brilliance of guard Jimmer Fredette — will make BYU, a No. 7 seed in the West Region, a threat to any team regardless of record or pedigree. The Cougars will make quick work of undeserving No. 10 Florida in the first round and then give Kansas State fits in the second. But the Wildcats and their guard duo of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente will put an end to the dream season. BYU will also have to say bye-bye in the second round, having won 30 games.

San Diego State Aztecs (25-8, 11-5)

No. 11 seed, Midwest Region

After a 2008-09 season in which they felt snubbed out of the NCAA Tournament, the Aztecs made sure there wouldn’t be a chance for a repeat this season by winning the MWC Tournament title.

San Diego State barely escaped Colorado State in the tournament’s quarterfinals but was more convincing in the semifinals, defeating New Mexico, and the championship game, downing UNLV. That tournament title awarded them a No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region and a first-round meeting with No. 6 Tennessee.

But will the confidence of a tournament championship and a chip on their shoulder from the 2009 snub be enough to push the Aztecs past a team that’s beaten both No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Kentucky this season? Likely not. The Volunteers happened to have lost their last game in shameful fashion, 74-45 to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament semifinals Saturday, and they will not overlook the Aztecs in the first round. San Diego State will not be able to surprise Tennessee and will be one-and-out after a great season.

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (25-8, 11-5)

No. 9 seed, Midwest Region

On paper, the Rebels have an almost identical NCAA Tournament résumé to that of San Diego State. The only difference for UNLV lies in its 55-45 loss to the Aztecs in the MWC Tournament championship game Saturday. They’re even in the same region, the Midwest.

Despite the tourney loss, UNLV was granted a higher seed over the Aztecs, a No. 8. That’s not necessarily going to help the Rebels stick around any longer than the champs, though. They’ll have to play a No. 9 Northern Iowa that has only lost four games all season long and has an edge on experience. The Panthers bring pretty much their whole team back from last year’s NCAA Tournament run, and, unfortunately for the Rebels, that will doom them and give them yet another likeness to San Diego State: a season-ending first-round loss.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.