By draft night, 30 NBA teams will have spent countless hours reviewing game tape, scouting workouts, collecting measurements and conducting interviews of every player they will consider taking in the draft.
Although draft night is still two and a half weeks away, every team is busy crunching the numbers on players from John Wall and Evan Turner to Jon Scheyer and Scottie Reynolds. They want a player who can contribute next season — or sometime in the near future. In many cases, that requires filling a specific need. But in others, teams go with the most talented player available.
Obviously, draft results largely depend on the available talent and team needs. However, several trends have emerged during the past few years. And one trend might not bode well for someone like Turner.
Point forwards can dominate the college game. They have the ball handling skills to cut to the hoop, shooting touch to extend defenses beyond their comfort zone, and size to post up smaller guards. However, their skills don’t always translate to the NBA.
In 2008, Italian forward Danilo Gallinari went to New York at No. 6, and Milwaukee picked West Virginia’s Joe Alexander two picks later. Those top 10 picks didn’t exactly inspire much excitement for undersized forwards who like to shoot. Gallinari averaged 6.1 points in 28 games for the Knicks during his rookie season, and Alexander struggled to put up 4.7 points in 59 games. Gallinari improved significantly in his sophomore campaign, but the Bucks gave up on Alexander, shipping him to Chicago for John Salmons.
In 2009, no one took a shot at a point forward until New Jersey took Louisville’s Terrence Williams with the No. 11 pick. Shortly after Williams came off the board, Gerald Henderson and Austin Daye followed. Of the three, Williams fared the best, averaging 8.4 points per game in his rookie season. He appears to be a decent part of the Nets’ rebuilding plans. The other two didn’t impress their teams, the Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons, respectively. Neither averaged much more than five points per game. What’s worse is Henderson’s shooting: 35.6 percent from the field and 21.1 percent from three-point range. For a 215-pound point forward, that’s unacceptable. And it will scare teams away from guys who haven’t proven that they can be great shooters or legitimate post players.
That spells trouble for Turner. Ohio State’s junior superstar averaged 20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game this past season en route to Player of the Year honors. However, Turner shot a decent-but-not-spectacular 36.4 percent from three-point range. And at 6-7 and 215 pounds, Turner might find scoring much tougher in the NBA.
Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson is another player looking to prove he can make it in the league as a small forward. In his one season with the Orange, Johnson dominated opponents for 16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Unlike Turner, though, Johnson shot 41.5 percent from three-point range, proving that he has the goods to consistently deliver from long range.
Turner and Johnson seem to be safe top 10 picks, though perhaps not as high in the top 10 as expected. However, Wake Forest’s Al-Farouq Aminu might be in trouble. He seems to more closely resemble Daye or Alexander than Turner or Johnson. Aminu is 6-9, 215 pounds and a 44.7 percent shooter. It’s even uglier from three-point range, where Aminu shoots 27.3 percent. Aminu is a hard worker, and he averaged 10.7 rebounds per game for the Demon Deacons. But he’s a risky pick, who could follow in the footsteps of other college point forwards who don’t dominate the post but aren’t good enough shooters to play the 3 spot in the NBA.
If the trends of the past couple of years continue, we might see some surprising results at the top of the draft and some long waits for players projected to hear their names called toward the end of the lottery. In a couple of weeks, we’ll find out how much emphasis NBA executives place on recent history.
