Despite reams of scouting reports and hours of tape review, NBA teams end up making their best educated guess when picking a player who usually is supposed to develop into a future starter — if not an All Star.
Shortly after team reps submit their picks to David Stern, team fans and executives cross their fingers and pray that the newest member of their squad can live up to expectations. For lottery picks, those expectations are lofty. For the rest of the first-round picks, expectations vary from long-term project to immediate bench contributor. And for second-round picks, anything more than 10 points per game in their first season or two is exceptional.
As always, there are a few players who exceed those expectations, much to the delight of fans, coaches and members of the front office. We have identified some of the potential steals in this year’s draft.
Lottery Picks
Washington probably will love John wall, and whoever gets DeMarcus Cousins will likely see immediate results. Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, Greg Monroe and Derrick Favors hold plenty of promise, too. Beyond those six, the rest of the lottery looks fairly wide open. But a pair of lesser known college players could make plenty of noise next season.
Luke Babbitt, Nevada
Babbitt is a 6-9 small forward who has the polish to score from inside the arc and excels from behind it. His range and length should allow to step onto the court immediately. At the draft combine, Babbitt put up fantastic numbers for his maximum vertical leap and lane agility test. He also fared well in the 185-pound bench press. Babbitt could easily fall to No. 9 or 10 in the draft but might finish next season among the top five most successful rookies.
Paul George, Fresno State
Like Babbitt, George is a 6-9 small forward from a West Coast school. Playing for the slow-paced Bulldogs, George averaged nearly 17 points per game while grabbing more than seven rebounds per game. He shot nearly 45 percent from three-point range in 2008-09, though his percentage dropped to 35.3 percent last season. If he can regain his 2009 shooting touch in the NBA, he promises to make an instant impact with his new team.
First-Round Values
Jordan Crawford, Xavier
People know Crawford’s name because he’s the guy who dunked on LeBron James at a Nike camp last summer. Well, plenty of other NBA players will have to worry about getting posterized next season when Crawford joins the league. Like Oklahoma State’s James Anderson, Crawford has a scorer’s mentality. He would make a great addition to a winning team’s bench, though he likely needs to go to a team with a coach who can help him better recognize good vs. bad shots.
Quincy Pondexter, Washington
When you play for an NCAA team that likes to sprint up and down the court like it is working against a 10-second shot clock, NBA scouts might expect you to average about 20 points per game, especially if you’re supposed to be your team’s player. But Pondexter is the real deal. He averaged 19.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game for the Huskies and maintained a 52.8 percent field goal percentage despite playing in that up-tempo offense. At 6-7, Pondexter figures to be the type of athletic wing player with range that can help teams at the next level jack up the offensive pressure.
Larry Sanders, VCU
For an NBA power forward, Sanders lacks the beef to bang with players like Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan. However, the 6-11 forward is blessed with the wingspan of an albatross at 7-6. In the Colonial Athletic Association, he used that length to grab 9.1 rebounds and block 2.6 shots per game. Sanders is not a great offensive force, but he knows his range and shot 53.4 percent from the field last season. He averaged only 26.4 minutes per game for the medium-tempo Rams, so Sanders’ offensive numbers might blossom under the tutelage of a veteran power forward or seasoned coaching staff. Sanders compares favorably to much more highly regarded picks like North Carolina’s Ed Davis and Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh. Given that he’ll likely fall to pick No. 20-30, Sanders will be a great value for a playoff team.
James Anderson, Oklahoma State
Plain and simple, Anderson can score. At 6-6, he has the height needed for an NBA 2 guard. He averaged better than 22 points per game playing for the average-paced Cowboys, despite receiving most of the opposing defense’s attention. His shooting percentage from the field and three-point territory dipped last season because he faced more exotic defenses. Some NBA team will get a legitimate scoring threat who promises to come off the bench and provide a spark night in and night out.
Damion James, Texas
Look out for James next season. He struggled down the stretch last season, along with the rest of the Longhorns. That late-season fizzle hurt James’ draft stock. But the 6-8 small forward can shoot and get to the hoop. Plus he has a warrior’s mentality, grabbing more than 10.3 rebounds per game. He shot better than 50 percent from the field and 38 percent from three-point territory. James will be a fantastic value to a team if he falls to pick No. 20 or later. He has a similar profile to Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson, whom many consider to be a lock for the top six or seven.
Second-Round Steals
Artsiom Parakhouski, Radford
Who? Yes, Radford, of the Big South Conference, might be placing one of its own in this year’s NBA Draft. Parakhouski led the nation in rebounding with 13.4 rebounds per game. He was a double-double machine against the weaker competition that the Highlanders faced. But as a legitimate 7-footer who weighs 260 pounds, some NBA team should take a flyer on this guy in the second round. He’s not an athletic wonder, but he is a bruiser.
Greivis Vasquez, Maryland
At 6-6, many scouts consider Vasquez to be stuck between the point and shooting guard positions. However, Vasquez finished last season as one of the top point guards in the country, averaging 6.3 assists per game. And he proved that he can score at will. Vasquez is a fiery leader who could become a valuable sparkplug off the bench. By the end of a few seasons, Vasquez could emerge as one of the best two or three point guards in this draft class.
Omar Samhan, St. Mary’s
Experts question Samhan’s athleticism and ability to contend at the next level. However, when you adjust for minutes played and team tempo, Samhan was second only to Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody in points per possession. In addition, he finished No. 9 in the country for rebounds per game and No. 13 for blocks per game. Samhan could become a valuable member of some team’s frontcourt rotation, much like DeJuan Blair earned frequent minutes with the San Antonio Spurs this past season.
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Like Samhan, scouts doubt that Harangody can put up numbers in the NBA like he did in college. They don’t believe that a lumbering collegiate power forward can play with the lithe forwards of the NBA. But Harangody proved at the combine that he could be a human wrecking ball in the paint, putting up the most reps with the bench press. And he showed some quickness in the three-quarter court sprint and lane agility test.
Lazar Hayward, Marquette
Although Hayward is small for a forward at 6-6, he has a 7-1 wingspan, which should allow him to compete with taller small forwards. He is an adept defensive player, averaging nearly two steals per game last season. At the combine, he showed off his great agility and superior vertical leap. If he can work on his streak shot, his athleticism could help propel him to unexpected success in the NBA.
