The ACC isn’t doing much to dispel the argument that the conference has fallen out of the elite among the power conferences.
The conference has a 6-15 record against the top 25 teams, as rated by Ken Pomeroy. Against teams ranked No. 26-50, they’re 8-8 and 13-11 against teams ranked No. 51-100. Four ACC teams have lost a total of nine games against competitors outside the top 100.
That’s not terribly impressive. And unless you’re the Duke Blue Devils, you better plan on winning 10 ACC games if you want any chance of earning an NCAA Tournament bid. As we pass the Christmas break, Boston College, Florida State, Maryland and North Carolina have the best chance at making that happen.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Eagles have more wins against the top 25 than any other ACC team does. Boston College knocked off Texas A&M and Maryland — both away from Chestnut Hill. Those figure to be huge wins that will keep Boston College in the discussion for an at-large bid longer than many anticipated entering this season.
Reggie Jackson has been a huge reason for Boston College’s success. The junior guard is playing like the best ACC guard not named Kyrie Irving, based on Hoopville’s Total Impact Quotient. Jackson is averaging nearly 20 points per game and shooting better than 50 percent from the field and three-point range. In addition to leading the Eagles in scoring, he’s setting up teammates, averaging a team-high five assists per game. If Jackson can continue to dominate in conference play, there’s no reason the Eagles can’t finish among the top third and earn an NCAA Tournament bid.
We’ve already outlined Florida State’s recipe for success, and it’s worth reiterating: the Seminoles win with oppressive defense. The Seminoles have a strong win against Baylor and a good win against Clemson. This team has no bad losses and can probably get to 22 or 23 wins by simply beating opponents that it should. Chris Singleton remains one of the most dominant players in the conference, and he is getting enough help to keep the Seminoles on pace for another trip to the Big Dance.
Maryland will find out quickly in 2011 whether the Terrapins are a serious contender in the ACC. The Terrapins have no wins against the top 50 teams and just two against the top 100. However, Maryland looked good in tough losses to Illinois and Pittsburgh in Madison Square Garden earlier this year. And the Terrapins have one of the best big men in the conference in Jordan Williams. The sophomore is second in TIQ in the conference and averages 18.2 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. He’ll need to continue to play huge when the Terrapins hit the road for five out of seven games in January, including tough games at Duke and Villanova. In seven games against Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Villanova, the Terrapins probably need to win at least three to warrant an NCAA Tournament bid.
Like the Terrapins, North Carolina needs a few more big wins to overcome a schedule rife with close losses. The Tar Heels lost to Texas, Vanderbilt and Minnesota by a combined 14 points. A home win against Kentucky looks great — and should continue to do so — but North Carolina really needs to pick up a few good wins against Duke, Maryland, Florida State and Virginia Tech.
The next week will be the last one before the entire ACC gets deep into conference play, and there are a few big games on tap. Boston College needs to win against Providence, South Carolina and Harvard to enter ACC play as a true contender to be among the elite. Virginia has an important home game against a pretty good Iowa State team, and the Cavaliers need to win after dropping a home game against Seattle last week.
Non-conference play hasn’t done much to elevate the ACC’s stock. In the next few weeks, we’ll find out whether the conference has a handful of great teams that stand out or whether it really is a conference with Duke and a bunch of tag-alongs.
