You probably don’t remember the last time Northwestern won a Big Ten title. The odds are your parents weren’t alive when it happened. And it’s quite possible that your grandparents might not have been alive either.
The Wildcats haven’t won their conference since 1933, and the team has never reached the NCAA Tournament. In more than 100 years of basketball history, Northwestern has posted only 27 winning seasons. But coach Bill Carmody has this team poised to rewrite history — at least the part about never appearing in the NCAA Tournament.
In a stacked Big Ten, the Wildcats probably don’t have the firepower to hang near the top with Ohio State, Purdue or Michigan State. But there’s no reason that Carmody’s crew can’t compete with Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota in the conference’s second tier. In such a strong year for the Big Ten, a 9-9 conference record should be enough to get the Wildcats into the Big Dance.
Carmody has Northwestern playing a brand of basketball that is tough to stop. Led by sharp-shooting John Shurna, the Wildcats launch a ton of three-pointers every game and hit more than 40 percent of them. Shurna is the second-most accurate long-range shooter in Division I, hitting better than 62 percent of his three-point attempts. He’s only a few percentage points behind Wake Forest’s Gary Clark, who has attempted 21 fewer three-pointers. By season’s end, Shurna could be the best three-point shooter in the country.
Drew Crawford and Michael Thompson work alongside Shurna to give Northwestern a triple threat on offense. The trio averages 53.6 points per game on a team scoring nearly 80 per game. That’s enough offense to keep Northwestern in nearly any Big Ten game.
The question will be whether Northwestern can play enough defense to compete with miserly squads like Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois. All four are among the top 25 in defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. In contrast, Northwestern ranks No. 106. The Wildcats aren’t particularly great at forcing turnovers, and they allow opponents to shoot nearly 50 percent inside the arc.
Another question will be whether Shurna, Crawford and Thompson wear down during the grind of the Big Ten schedule. All three average more than 30 minutes per game. Although the Wildcats don’t play a particularly up-tempo game — and the Big Ten isn’t known for its track meets — that’s a ton of minutes to log in a conference with plenty of physical teams.
Despite a 9-1 start, Northwestern remains largely unproven, with its best wins against Georgia Tech and Creighton. The lone loss came on the road at St. John’s. The Wildcats open Big Ten play with a road game at Purdue. That will be a good barometer for Northwestern’s chances at getting over the hump and competing with the best Big Ten teams for an NCAA Tournament bid.
The Wildcats are hopeful that for once, history won’t repeat itself.
