This weekend features several critical ACC match ups that could leave a few teams in position for a late-season run at an NCAA Tournament bid.
When it’s all said and done, the ACC likely will send four or five teams to the NCAA Tournament, especially if bubble teams in the Big 12 and Big Ten falter during the final few weeks — think Penn State, Michigan State and Kansas State. Right now, Duke and North Carolina look like locks, with Florida State in good position barring a collapse down the stretch.
But after those teams, the ACC has a murky pool of five bubble teams, all of which have shown potential for greatness and ugliness this season. Clemson leads the pack in the conference standings with a 6-4 record. With a record of 4-6, Miami is looking up at Clemson, and Virginia Tech, Maryland and Boston College are sandwiched between those two. Here is this weekend’s ACC schedule for the bubble teams.
- Duke at Miami
- Maryland at Boston College
- North Carolina at Clemson
- Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
The Hurricanes can gain the most ground by upsetting Duke in Coral Gables. Miami already possesses a great win against West Virginia in a semi-home game in South Florida. If the Hurricanes can find a way past Duke, they’ll have more two more wins against the RPI top 25 than the other four ACC bubble teams combined. The strength of those victories will be a significant boost for Miami. The Hurricanes also have three games against the bubble teams during the next three weeks: Clemson and Maryland will come to Miami, and the Hurricanes will go to Boston College.
For Boston College, wins against Texas A&M on a neutral court, at Maryland and against Virginia Tech in Chestnut Hill seemed to put the Eagles on pace for an NCAA Tournament bid. But Boston College is only treading water in conference play, with a 5-5 record. Saturday’s game against Maryland is huge because it could give the Eagles a season sweep of one of the bubble teams. Boston College also has winnable home games against Miami and Wake Forest, and the Eagles might be able to steal a road game at Virginia. To overcome non-conference losses to Yale and Harvard, Boston College must find a way to get 9-7 in conference play and win every game against the other bubble teams.
Boston College’s opponent this weekend, Maryland, is the furthest from NCAA contention. The Terrapins have often looked like a top four ACC team — at least for 30 minutes a game — but they just can’t find a way to finish off games. Maryland had great chances to beat Texas, Illinois, Villanova and Duke but let all four games slip away. As a result, Maryland sits at 5-4 in the ACC and has no wins against the RPI top 50 and only three against the top 100. Maryland needs to start its move toward the top of the standings with a win at Boston College. The only way the Terrapins can impress the selection committee now is to string together some road wins against Boston College, North Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech. If the Terrapins win all three remaining home games against North Carolina State, Florida State and Virginia then add two road wins for a 10-6 ACC record, they might have a strong enough résumé for an NCAA Tournament bid.
Meanwhile, Clemson might be the closest to moving from outside to inside the field. With a 6-4 record, the Tigers are fourth in the conference entering this weekend. If Clemson can protect its home court against North Carolina, the Tigers will have one top 25 RPI win to brag about — the same number that the Tar Heels have. Clemson already has six wins against the RPI top 100, and the team’s only questionable losses were at Virginia and South Carolina. The Tigers have important games against Miami and Duke on the road and Virginia Tech in Littlejohn Coliseum down the stretch.
Virginia Tech has a bunch of decent wins, but none that stands out. The Hokies have seven wins against the RPI top 100, but is the highlight against Oklahoma State? Penn State? Florida State? Virginia Tech must continue to take care of business against the ACC’s cellar dwellers: Georgia Tech, Virginia and Wake Forest. With three games against those teams, the Hokies are in position to get to 10-6 in conference play by splitting games against Maryland, Duke, Boston College and Clemson, and the first three of those must come to Blacksburg.
Based on these five teams’ recent play, I expect Clemson and Virginia Tech to do enough to finish with at least 10 conference wins, which will be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament barring an ugly opening-round loss in the ACC Tournament. On the other hand, Maryland and Boston College probably won’t finish much better than 8-8 in the conference, necessitating a lengthy ACC Tournament run — possibly even a conference championship. Miami is the question mark. The Hurricanes have played tough against everyone all season but come up on the wrong end of many of those games. I expect Miami’s fortunes to turn, but it won’t net the Hurricanes a record better than 8-8 in the ACC. But Miami should have enough quality wins that one more good win in the ACC Tournament will at least keep them in the at-large bid discussion on Selection Sunday.
