We’re just about three weeks away from Selection Sunday, and only two ACC teams can feel secure about their NCAA Tournament prospects: Duke and North Carolina.
The ACC’s hub of power once again is in central North Carolina, as the Blue Devils and Tar Heels hold a combined 20-3 record against conference opponents. Those two teams will definitely hear their names called March 13, with Duke in contention for a No. 1 seed and the Tar Heels en route to at least a No. 5 seed.
Besides those two, the NCAA Tournament fates of four other teams are pretty much sealed, though in the equal and opposite direction. Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina State and Wake Forest aren’t going anywhere near the Big Dance unless they miraculously win four games in four days in the ACC Tournament.
So that’s half the conference. The other half has work left to do.
Florida State
Odds of reaching NCAA Tournament: 80 percent.
The Seminoles are 18-7 overall and 8-3 in ACC play, including an excellent win at home against Duke. That seemingly would have Florida State in good position to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. However, the Seminoles likely will be without Chris Singleton for the rest of the season, and the selection committee will be watching this team closely to see if the team’s play drops off.
Even with Singleton, Florida State has only six wins against the RPI top 100. The schedule is favorable for the Seminoles, though, with Miami coming to Tallahassee and winnable road games at Wake Forest and North Carolina State. An 11-5 ACC record will put Florida State into the tournament regardless of the team’s performance in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia Tech
Odds of reaching NCAA Tournament: 70 percent.
The Hokies whiffed on most of their opportunities to pick up a marquee win, but they can claim eight wins against the RPI top 100. The biggest game of the season will be Feb. 26, when Duke comes to Blacksburg. That’s Virginia Tech’s last chance to pick up an elite win, and it would nearly guarantee the Hokies a tournament bid.
But I wouldn’t give the Hokies better than a 50/50 chance of winning that game. Luckily for Virginia Tech, the rest of the schedule includes games against Virginia, Wake Forest and Boston College, the latter in Blacksburg. If the Hokies beat the teams they’re supposed and protect home court against a fellow ACC bubble team, Virginia Tech should finish the regular season at 20-9 and 10-6 in the ACC. That should be enough to get Virginia Tech a bid as long as the Hokies avoid a black eye in the ACC Tournament against the likes of Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia or North Carolina State.
Boston College
Odds of reaching NCAA Tournament: 45 percent.
You’ll have to excuse the Eagles if they’re kinda ticked off at Texas A&M right now. Boston College’s win against the Aggies in November looked like an elite win for much of the season — at least until Texas A&M hit the road in Big 12 and loss to pretty much everyone away from College Station. As the Aggies sink, so does Boston College’s at-large profile, which lacks any other wins against an RPI top 50 team.
The Eagles possess six wins against RPI top 51-100 teams, but that might not make up for a damaging home loss to Yale in non-conference play. For Miami, a win at North Carolina Saturday would be huge. But the Tar Heels smashed the Eagles by 32 in Chesnut Hill just two weeks ago. More likely, Boston College will be battling for its at-large survival in Blacksburg at Virginia Tech and again in the ACC Tournament. The Eagles are the type of team that will be rooting for conference favorites while looking to pick up at least two wins during Championship Week.
Clemson
Odds of reaching NCAA Tournament: 25 percent.
Clemson has a similar profile to Boston College — and even has a home win against the Eagles. But at 6-6 in conference play, the Tigers face the difficult task of needing to win a road game at Miami or Duke. The upcoming road trip to Miami has become a must-win game after the Tigers lost at North Carolina State. A home win against Wake Forest won’t help the profile, and a road victory at Duke seems highly unlikely. That means Clemson will probably end the regular season with a 19-11 record overall and 8-8 record in conference play. That’s not good enough to earn a bid this season.
With that type of profile, Clemson would need to win three games in the ACC Tournament, including one against North Carolina or Duke, to have any prayer of reaching the NCAA Tournament as an at-large squad.
Miami
Odds of reaching NCAA Tournament: 15 percent.
The Hurricanes have seven losses by single digits and have been competitive in every ACC game this season. But close calls don’t buy any credit with the selection committee. Instead, Miami must rely on the strength of its win against West Virginia, an RPI top 25 team. Unfortunately for Miami, that’s about it on the résumé. Miami has only two other wins against the RPI top 100. On the plus side, the Hurricanes have no losses to teams outside the top 100.
In addition, Miami gets home games against fellow bubble teams Clemson and Maryland. If the Hurricanes can take care of business against Georgia Tech on the road and steal one at Boston College or Florida State, Miami would end the season at 8-8 in conference play and 20-11 overall. That would also give the Hurricnaes three more top 100 wins. If West Virginia can finish strong in the Big East to make that win look even better, the Hurricanes will remain relevant on Selection Sunday, especially if they win three games in Greensboro in the ACC Tournament. But I wouldn’t bet on all that.
Maryland
Odds of reaching NCAA Tournament: 10 percent.
Maryland’s problem is similar to Miami’s: lots of close calls but no cigar. The Terrapins have zero wins against the RPI top 50 and only three against the top 100. That’s not going to cut it, even though Maryland has no bad losses.
Another problem for the Terrapins is the lack of opportunities to improve their résumé. Maryland gets North Carolina State and Wake Forest in College Park, which won’t help. A home win against Florida State would be decent, but without Chris Singleton, the Seminoles don’t have the same clout. That leaves road games at Miami and North Carolina. To have any prayer at an at-large bid, the Terrapins probably need to win both, a tall order for a team that’s 4-7 away from the Comcast Center. Maryland’s only hope for an at-large bid is at least a 9-7 ACC record and a run to the ACC Tournament title game.
Final Tally
Look for the ACC to put four teams into the NCAA Tournament. In my opinion, the winner of the Boston College at Virginia Tech game March 1 will likely determine the identity of the final bubble team. That favors the Hokies because the game is in Blacksburg. If the Eagles can find a way into the tournament, they’ll likely be the conference’s fifth team, which would be an impressive total given the justifiable criticism lobbed at the conference all season.
