Wisconsin might be the most interesting team in the country heading into the NCAA Tournament. The two-faced Badgers look like a national championship contender — and a second-round upset candidate.
As we finish the last weekend of the regular season, the Badgers have a ridiculous offensive efficiency rating of 1.254 points per possession, according to Ken Pomeroy. That’s easily No. 1 in the country. In fact, among teams seeded No. 3 or better in the past eight NCAA Tournaments, Wisconsin would have the fourth-best offense, tied with Florida circa 2007. Of the past four teams to post a 125.4 offensive efficiency rating or better, the 2005 North Carolina Tar Heels and 2007 Gators won the national championship. The 2008 Tar Heels reached the Final Four before running into a Kansas buzz saw, which had an offensive efficiency rating of 1.253 points per possession.
However, the other team on the list is the 2005 Wake Forest Demon Deacons, who had a 1.258 points per possession offensive rating. Chris Paul’s final season ended in bitter defeat at the hands of No. 7 seed West Virginia in double overtime. Could Wisconsin be heading to a similar fate?
At face value, the Badgers have more in common with the vanquished Demon Deacons than the triumphant Tar Heels and Gators. The Final Four squads all had defensive efficiencies no worse than 0.894 points per possession. On the other hand, Wake Forest allowed 0.95 points per possession, sixth worst of the 96 teams to earn a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed since 2003. Guess what Wisconsin’s defensive efficiency is right now? 0.947 points per possession. Uh oh.
A quick aside: It’s important to look at the top three seeds because those teams deliver 77.3 percent of all Final Four participants. On average, that means one in four Final Four teams will come from another seed. But in reality, nine of the 10 teams to reach the Final Four from a worse seed did so in only four different NCAA Tournaments. When it rains upsets, it pours upsets.
And Wisconsin could be in danger of stepping into a deluge of pain if the Badgers don’t shape up on defense. However, that just might not be possible.
The Badgers are who they are: one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the country, playing at a plodding pace and avoiding mistakes. But they also don’t force opponents to make mistake. The Badgers are among the bottom three teams in Division I in forcing steals and the bottom 25 in forcing turnovers in general. Plus they don’t block many shots. Wisconsin is among the D-I leaders in eliminating second chances, though, ranking No. 13 in defensive rebounding percentage. So when you play Wisconsin, you must play a clean game and shoot well because you’re not going to get second chances.
And the Badgers won’t give you many of extra chances either. They don’t commit turnovers (No. 1 in turnover percentage), don’t miss free throws (No. 1 in free throw percentage) and don’t get blocked (No. 5 in blocked shot percentage on offense).
The problem for Wisconsin is stopping hot shooters. That passive defense can allow teams to shoot well, especially from long range. Cornell was the Badgers’ nightmare match up last season, as Steve Donohue’s sharpshooters hit 8-of-15 three-pointers and shot 61.1 percent from the field in an 87-69 second-round blowout upset.
This season’s squad has a similar weakness as opponents shoot 35.8 percent from behind the arc, which ranks in the bottom third in D-I three-point defense. In Wisconsin’s six losses, teams shot 37.6 percent from long range. In slow-paced games, an extra three-pointer or two can be all the difference between a close win and major upset.
Think Bo Ryan would be nervous to see Donohue’s Boston College Eagles and their three-point shooters end up in the Badgers’ side of the bracket? However, Wisconsin’s defensive weakness doesn’t guarantee trouble.
In 2005, Wake Forest had nearly the exact opposite style. The team was running and gunning with Paul at the helm. However, the Demon Deacons were committing turnovers far too often, negating any advantage gained from a gambling defense that collected plenty of steals. Compared to the 2011 Badgers, Wake Forest was not as devoted to rebounding, ranking No. 70 in defensive rebounding percentage. And that’s when opponents actually missed. The Demon Deacons’ D let them shoot 37.0 percent from three-point range and 47.1 percent inside the arc.
The 2005 Demon Deacons had enough defensive holes that teams could find a way past the high-octane offense in a couple of different ways. The Mountaineers did it with great shooting and by forcing turnovers.
The latter won’t work too often against the 2011 Badgers. If upset-minded underdogs want to take out Wisconsin, they will need to beat the Badgers at Wisconsin’s own game: shoot very well, especially from long range, and avoid turnovers and extended possessions on defense.
That’s a tall order, but the stats show it’s not impossible. Badgers beware.
