We know Old Dominion will be in the NCAA Tournament. The Monarchs claimed their second straight conference title on Monday night with a win over arch-rival VCU. With that out of the way, what happens for some of the other top teams in the conference? Specifically, will George Mason and VCU make the NCAA Tournament as well?
That question can’t be answered here, but examining both teams’ case is a worthwhile exercise.
Most pundits figure George Mason is in. The Patriots won the regular season in what may be the best year ever for the CAA. They entered Championship Week as the hottest team in the country with 15 straight wins before the CAA Tournament. Their RPI is 27, which historically bodes well, although Missouri State can attest to that not being a sure thing. And the Patriots’ case is perhaps a little more interesting than one might think.
The Patriots were 10-3 on the road and 2-3 in neutral site games, so they have certainly proven themselves away from Fairfax. Their best wins are against Harvard (home), Duquesne (road), Old Dominion (home) and VCU (road). They alsowon at Northern Iowa in a BracketBusters game.
The one thing the Patriots lack is a true signature win over a team that was a lock for the NCAA Tournament, unless you figure Old Dominion would be in even if they did not win on Monday night. As Old Dominion has an RPI of 24 entering Monday night, better than George Mason’s, it probably isn’t a stretch to think Old Dominion was a lock. Old Dominion has a win over Xavier in the Paradise Jam final as their signature win, in addition to beating George Mason at home and winning at VCU. The Patriots have plenty of good wins, but only a couple may leap out at the committee.
The Patriots did lose to NC State and Wofford, although Wofford won the Southern Conference on Monday night so that doesn’t look like a resume killer at all. They also lost to Dayton, which is down this year, but that came on the road. None of those losses is a terrible loss by any stretch of the imagination.
In sum, the Patriots should be in, especially considering the great deal of mediocrity on the bubble this year. The Patriots are significantly better than a lot of teams being discussed as possibly the last four in or out.
VCU may have a better profile than people think, especially if the perception is shaped largely by the bad month of February the Rams had. Ever since they beat UCLA in the NIT Season Tip-Off, this team has been watched as a possible bubble team. The Rams have that win, as well as a win over Southern Conference champion Wofford (home) and a win at Old Dominion. On Saturday, they beat George Mason in the CAA Tournament. And like the Patriots, they have their fair share of wins over good, not great, teams. Drexel is a great example, as the Rams went 2-1 against them but are probably an NIT team at best. The Rams’ road record is 8-6 and they went 4-2 on neutral courts, and their RPI is 49 entering the week.
The Rams, however, have a few more losses to overcome. They lost at Georgia State and at Northeastern, two teams in the bottom third of the CAA. Both came on the road, which mitigates it a little. They also lost at South Florida in overtime; the Bulls finished 15th in the Big East. They had missed opportunities against Tennessee, Richmond and Conference USA regular season champion UAB. None of them is a bad loss, but they are all missed opportunities.
For VCU to be in, a lot of other bubble teams probably need to lose, and other locks for the NCAA Tournament need to win the rest of this week. Chances are, that’s more likely to add up to an NIT bid than an NCAA bid.
At the end of the day, the CAA’s top six teams should all make postseason play. All six teams won at least 21 games and had a 10-8 record or better in a conference that is 26 games over .500 in non-conference play. For those that don’t make the NCAA Tournament, NIT bids are harder to come by now that teams that win their conference in the regular season and don’t make the NCAA by virtue of losing in the conference tournament are guaranteed bids to the NIT.
If I had to guess at how this will all shake out, it looks something like this:
NCAA: Old Dominion, George Mason
NIT: VCU, Hofstra
CBI: Drexel
CIT: James Madison
There’s a reasonable chance that only one of VCU or Hofstra makes the NIT, pushing the other into the CBI. James Madison has been in the CIT before, in its inaugural season when they lost to Old Dominion in the semifinals.
