Let’s take a look at each Sweet 16 game on the schedule and ask a couple of questions for which the answers could easily decide the outcome of the game. Much of the analysis for these teams comes from the wealth of statistics available at Ken Pomeroy’s website.
(2) San Diego State vs. (3) Connecticut, Thursday 7:15
San Diego State might be playing within two hours of home and have the better seed, but Connecticut is playing better than any team that’s not a No. 1 seed in this tournament. Led by Kemba Walker, Connecticut has been on fire since losing back-to-back games to close the regular season. Will Walker’s quickness and ability to create his own shot carry the Huskies past one of the best defensive teams in the country?
On offense, the Aztecs figure to continue to struggle to score. They are a post-oriented squad that gets 57.2 percent of its scoring from two-point range. That’s tough to do against Connecticut. Will the Huskies strong interior defense frustrate San Diego State and neutralize the Aztecs’ semi-home court advantage by taking the crowd out of the game?
(2) Florida vs (3) BYU, Thursday 7:27
This Sweet 16 battle pits two teams that met in last season’s second round, with BYU winning in double overtime. Can the Gators do a better job of stopping Jimmer Fredette, who put up 37 points in that game last tournament? The Gators are decent at defending the three, which is how the Cougars get a lot of their points — 30.6 percent to be precise.
Offensively, will Florida’s big guys punish BYU’s undersized front line in the post? BYU commits to rebounding as a team, but Florida ranks among the top 10 in offensive rebound percentage. The Gators also prefer to get their points inside the arc. If Florida can establish its size advantage inside and defend outside, BYU will be in trouble.
(1) Duke vs. (5) Arizona, Thursday 9:45
Duke haters love to protest that the Blue Devils get all the calls. Well, this game will test that theory. Duke is one of the top teams at not fouling opponents — or getting the refs’ benefit of the doubt, you say? — while Arizona, especially Derrick Williams, makes a habit of living at the line. The Wildcats get nearly a quarter of their points from the charity stripe. Will Arizona’s aggressive play force fouls, and will one of the top free throw shooting teams, at 74.7 percent, convert those opportunities?
The Blue Devils tend to use their ability to hit three-pointers to open the defense for drives to the basket. Can Duke’s shooters score against Arizona’s perimeter defense? The Wildcats hold opponents to 29.1 percent from beyond the arc, good for No. 3 in the country.
(4) Wisconsin vs. (8) Butler, Thursday 9:57
Butler survived one of the craziest endings of an NCAA Tournament games in years to knock off a No. 1 seed from the Big East for the second consecutive season. Last year, that preceded a run to the Final Four. To repeat that feat, the Bulldogs will need more hot shooting.
In the win vs. Pittsburgh, Butler relied on the long ball, draining 12 three-pointers. Shelvin Mack had a dominating performance, hitting 7-of-12 from long range. Wisconsin happens to be one of the worst teams in the country at guarding perimeter shooters. Can Mack and Butler repeat that performance and drain 10 or more three-pointers?
Wisconsin faces a very similar team that plays at a slow pace and focuses on avoiding mistakes rather forcing the issue. Will coach Bo Ryan stick with the Badgers’ tried-and-true formula, or will the Badgers switch it up and attack a foul-prone Butler team to make the Bulldogs uncomfortable?
(2) North Carolina vs. (11) Marquette, Friday 7:15
Both these teams received a little late-game luck in the third round to move forward to the Sweet 16. The chatter about officiating calls probably hasn’t diminished their focus on preparing for Friday night’s game. And both the Tar Heels and Golden Eagles must be looking for a stronger performance to avoid late drama.
For North Carolina, that requires a dominating defensive performance. Will North Carolina’s considerable height advantage torpedo Marquette’s game plan, which relies on 56.0 percent of scoring from inside the arc? If jump shots and driving layups are tough to come by, will Marquette get to the line enough times to gain a significant advantage? The Golden Eagles are one of the better teams in the country at drawing fouls, but North Carolina is No. 2 in free throw attempts percentage on defense.
(1) Kansas vs. (12) Richmond, Friday 7:27
The last time the Jayhawks won a national championship, in 2008, they beat a No. 16 seed, No. 8, No. 12, No. 10 and two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. This tournament, Kansas has vanquished a No. 16 seed and No. 9 and now faces a No. 12. In the bottom of the bracket, a No. 10 or 11 seed would await. Kind of eerie, right?
Outside the Final Four, Kansas’ toughest test was against Stephen Curry’s Davidson squad. That team could drain threes, much like Richmond can. Can the Spiders slow down the game and make enough three-pointers to hang with Kansas until the final seconds? For Kansas, will the Morris twins take control with their size and athleticism, or can Justin Harper and Dan Geriot keep them at bay?
(1) Ohio State vs. (4) Kentucky, Friday 9:45
Ohio State is firing on all cylinders, averaging 1.264 points per possession, which is the second-best efficiency rating in the past nine years. When paired with a solid defense — which the Buckeyes have — four of the past six teams to have similar offensive ratings won the national championship. Can Kentucky’s defense, which holds opponents to 42.0 percent from inside the arc, slow down the Buckeyes’ juggernaut?
On offense, will Brandon Knight handle Ohio State’s big defenders well and avoid turnovers? The Wildcats are No. 9 in the nation at avoiding turnovers, but Ohio State is No. 26 at forcing turnovers. Something has got to give.
(10) Florida State vs. (11) VCU, Friday 9:57
VCU and Florida State are two of the darlings of the NCAA Tournament, but only one of them can move forward to the Elite Eight. Can VCU replicate its formula for success against Florida State? Namely, can the Rams force turnovers against the Seminoles, who aren’t good at protecting the ball?
On the offensive end, will VCU solve Florida State’s masterful defense? The Seminoles are leading Division I in defensive points per possession at 0.859. Teams just can’t make shots against the Seminoles’ long defenders. From inside the arc, opponents shoot 39.9 percent, worst in the nation. From outside the arc, they’re only 30.1 percent, or No. 10 worst in the nation. The first team to 55 points should win this game.
