Let’s dive right into today’s Elite Eight match ups between Florida and Butler, followed by Connecticut and Arizona.
(8) Butler 74 (2) Florida 71 OT
In each of the past two NCAA Tournaments that Florida played Butler, the Gators reached the national title game, winning it in 2007 and losing to Michigan State in 2000. These two teams are different from their recent counterparts, and the winner will be one step away from the championship game.
In 2000, Florida squeaked past upset-minded No. 12 Butler in the first round, thanks to a Mike Miller layup at the buzzer. In 2007, the Gators won a fairly tight game against the Bulldogs en route to their second consecutive championship. In 2011, we have No. 8 Butler looking to complete another improbable Final Four against No. 2 Florida.
Florida will have an advantage with more athleticism, especially in the frontcourt with Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin and Patric Young. However, what the Bulldogs lack in athleticism, they make up for in smart play and hustle. Matt Howard is playing like one of the best five players in the NCAA Tournament thus far, and he is utterly clutch in closing moments. In the backcourt, Shelvin Mack will have the size advantage against Florida’s guards.
Here are a few critical questions for this match up.
Can Kenny Boynton prevent Mack from efficiently running Butler’s offense and shooting well from the perimeter?
ANSWER: No, Mack had his way with Florida, finishing with a game-high 27 points. Mack hit four three-pointers and added four assists while committing only two turnovers.
Will Andrew Smith be at 100 percent after injuring his ankle against Wisconsin? Will he and Matt Howard be effective at battling Florida for rebounds and keeping the Gators’ big men from dominating in the post?
ANSWER: Smith didn’t look to be quite at 100 percent, and he got into foul trouble. However, Butler battled Florida for rebounds as a team, with Howard and Smith contributing 13 of the team’s 36 rebounds, compared to the Gators’ 33 rebounds.
Besides Boynton and Erving Walker, the Gators are a mediocre free throw shooting team. Will that weakness come back to haunt the Gators against a Butler team that has a propensity to foul fairly often?
ANSWER: No, it didn’t hurt the Gators. Walker and Boynton made 11-of-13 free throws, and the rest of the team made 7-of-9 free throws. Florida has to be happy with that production, which didn’t cause trouble.
Which team’s bench players will have a bigger impact on this game? Butler gets solid contributions from Khyle Marshall, while Florida has excellent young guys, especially Young, Erik Murphy and Scottie Wilbekin.
ANSWER: Butler’s team effort outdid Florida in the end, and that shows up most obviously in bench production. The Bulldogs outscored Florida’s bench 23-2. Khyle Marshall was outstanding for Butler, with 10 points and seven rebounds, all of which came at the offensive end. As a team, Butler grabbed more than 36 percent of their missed shots.
(3) Connecticut 65 (5) Arizona 63
All eyes will be on Arizona’s Derrick Williams and Connecticut’s Kemba Walker. These two superstars can go off for 30+ points in any game, and they might need at least that much today.
For Arizona, guarding Walker is extraordinarily difficult because he has the ball in his hands so much and can create his own shot from nearly anywhere on the court. The Wildcats have some quick guards and good size, but they’ll need to be careful when switching off screens to avoid leaving Shabazz Napier or Jeremy Lambopen on the wing.
On offense, Williams also will have a significant advantage. He is bigger and quicker off his feet than the Huskies’ defenders. Alex Oriakhi is the only starter with the size to compete with Williams, but he might not have the quickness. Besides his ability to deliver thunderous dunks, Williams can step outside behind the arc, where he makes 58 percent of three-point attempts.
Because Williams and Walker seem destined to put up big numbers, the supporting cast will make the difference. In the first half against Duke, Williams didn’t get much help. But in Arizona’s 19-2 decisive run to open the second half, Williams provided only two of those points. If Arizona can continue to play like it did in the second half vs. the Blue Devils, Connecticut will be in trouble.
Here are a few critical questions for this match up.
Which superstar will have the better shooting day? Both players might finish with more than 30 points, but that’s not necessarily a good thing if it takes one of them 40 attempts to get there.
ANSWER: Neither star had an utterly dominating performance. In fact, they had almost identical games. Williams finished with 20 points on 5-of-13 shooting and grabbed five rebounds. Walker also had 20 points on 7-of-17 shooting with seven assists. He also had some clutch step-back jumpers late in the game to hold off the Wildcats. Walker’s ability to create plays helped make the difference in the Huskies’ narrow victory.
Which superstar will get more support from the rest of his team? Against San Diego State, Jeremy Lamb had a sensational game, with 24 points. But he and Walker did almost everything, scoring 60 of the team’s 74 points. Connecticut might need more than two players to make significant scoring contributions to beat Arizona.
ANSWER: Both teams had two other scorers reach double figures. Arizona’s Jesse Perry was solid with 14 points on 7-of-9 shooting and added seven rebounds. Meanwhile, Lamb was actually the most active shooter for the Huskies, making of 7-of-19 shots for 19 points. Lamb has emerged as an excellent outlet for Walker when defenses collapse on him. He has regularly found open space on the perimeter.
Can Arizona keep Connecticut from collecting a ton of offensive rebounds? The Huskies grab 38.6 percent of their missed shots, good for No. 7 in Division I. The Wildcats are a decent rebounding team but will need to make a concerted effort today.
ANSWER: Absolutely. Arizona won the battle of the boards, 39-28. The Huskies grabbed only 30 percent of their missed shots, while Arizona had second chances off 43 percent of the team’s misses. Perry, Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom were especially productive, with 23 rebounds.
Given that Arizona likes to get a large chunk of its scoring from the free throw line, can the Huskies avoid committing lots of fouls to give a 74.7 percent free throw shooting team easy opportunities to score?
ANSWER: This probably made the difference in the game. Arizona shot only 16 free throw attempts in the game, making 11. That’s about right for the team’s percentage, but the Wildcats didn’t draw enough fouls to make up for a relatively off shooting night at 39.3 percent from the field. The end for Arizona came when Jamelle Horne missed a three-pointer in the closing seconds after the Wildcats grabbed an offensive rebound from a Williams’ missed shot. Arizona was within one made three-pointer of the Final Four but couldn’t get the shots to fall.
