(11) VCU 71 (1) Kansas61
Will Cinderella’s slipper fit on VCU? At this point, the better question might be: Why wouldn’t it?
Led by coach Shaka Smart and point guard Joey Rodriguez, the Rams have burned through USC, Georgetown, Purdue and Florida State to move within one game of going from the First Four to the Final Four. If they make it happen, the run will look awfully familiar.
Five years ago, George Mason captured the country’s attention by receiving a controversial at-large bid as a No. 11 seed, then tore through Michigan State, North Carolina and Wichita State to set up a meeting with tournament-favorite Connecticut. The Colonials shocked the world with an overtime upset of the Huskies.
This year, the Rams would need to beat Kansas, which has become the tournament’s favorite with Ohio State’s demise at the hands of Kentucky. Before George Mason did it against the Huskies, most people would probably give VCU no hope of winning. But after the Rams’ great play during the past two weeks and with the Colonials’ Cinderella story already written, there are plenty of people outside Richmond who believe in the Rams.
Here are a few critical questions for this match up.
Will VCU’s press frustrate Kansas’ Tyshawn Taylor and Tyrel Reed, who occasionally have mental lapses? The Rams have advanced this far by making opponents uncomfortable and forcing turnovers.
ANSWER: Absolutely. VCU completed its amazing run to the Final Four by sticking to its script. The Rams forced 14 turnovers, and every guard not named Taylor struggled.
If the Rams don’t force turnovers, can they do anything to stop Kansas’ offense? The Jayhawks are a ridiculously accurate team from everywhere except the free throw line. They shoot a Division I-best 57.1 percent from inside the arc and 39.0 percent from three-point range.
ANSWER: Kansas was off its game from every range. Taylor had 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting, and the rest of the Jayhawks’ guards shot 3-of-23, or 13 percent from the field. The Morris twins were solid with 34 points and were 14-of-28 from the field. But as a team, Kansas was 2-of-22 from beyond the arc and 53.6 percent from the free throw line. That’s just ugly.
And when the Jayhawks miss shots, can VCU box out the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson to grab rebounds? Florida State dominated VCU, with 20 offensive rebounds. Kansas is a much better shooting team than the Seminoles are, so VCU can’t afford to let the Jayhawks have that many second chances.
ANSWER: Not really. The Jayhawks were excellent on the offensive glass, collecting 19 rebounds, or 47.5 percent of their misses. But Kansas just didn’t hit enough shots to take advantage of all those second chances. In the end, poor shooting and turnovers doomed the Jayhawks.
Can Kansas contain VCU’s three-point shooters? Jamie Skeen and Brandon Rozzell have been hot for most of the tournament, and Rozzell carried VCU during much of the second half against Florida State. It won’t be easy for VCU, though, because Kansas holds opponents to 29.1 percent from three-point range, which is No. 3 in Division I.
ANSWER: Not at all. Skeen and Rozzell came up huge — again — by draining four three-pointers apiece, and VCU finished with 12 threes on 25 attempts. That’s ridiculously good against Kansas’ defense, and it helped provide the difference in an otherwise tight game. More than half of the Rams’ points came from behind the arc.
(4) Kentucky 76 (2) North Carolina 69
Two of the most successful programs in NCAA history meet for the second time this season, and this rematch has a Final Four berth on the line. The Tar Heels and Wildcats have more than 2,000 wins as a program — and Kansas is the only other team that can say that. Kentucky holds the edge with 2,051 wins to 2,038 for the Jayhawks and 2,033 for the Tar Heels.
In the game earlier this season, North Carolina picked up its first big win of the season by slipping past the Wildcats 75-73 in Chapel Hill. But both teams have evolved since then. North Carolina is playing excellent with freshman Kendall Marshall at point guard. Harrison Barnes’ confidence is soaring through the roof, and he has become one of the top freshmen in the country.
For Kentucky, the Wildcats’ confidence couldn’t get much higher after taking out Ohio State, the favorite to win the national championship. Unlike last season’s squad, these Wildcats shoot very well from long range and attack opponents with a balanced offense.
Here a few critical questions for this match up.
Which freshman point guard will have the bigger impact in running his team’s offense: North Carolina’s Marshall or Kentucky’s Brandon Knight? Knight has two game-winning shots already in the tournament, while Marshall has 31 assists in three games. These two guards can take over games in different ways, but their teams will likely depend on them to play well to have a chance to win.
ANSWER: Knight dominated this match up. The Wildcats’ point guard helped fuel Kentucky’s return to the Final Four with a 76-69 win against North Carolina. He finished with 22 points, seven rebounds and four assists on 7-of-18 shooting, and five of those were three-pointers. In comparison, Marshall struggled with his shot, making only 2-of-10 attempts. He had eight assists, but it wasn’t enough to get the Tar Heels past Kentucky, meaning the Final Four will feature no No. 1 or 2 seeds.
Will Josh Harrellson dominate in the post against Tyler Zeller and John Henson? Kentucky’s big man has emerged as one of the most dominant forces in the NCAA Tournament, shooting 78 percent from the field for 47 points in three games. He’s also got 28 rebounds. Henson and Zeller often get labeled as soft, and the Harrellson challenge will give them a chance to put that indictment to rest once and for all.
ANSWER: No, but he didn’t need to. Coach John Calipari did a masterful job of adjusting his game plan to North Carolina’s defense. The Tar Heels packed the post to avoid letting Harrellson take over or giving the Wildcats’ wings room to drive into the lane. As a result, Harrellson finished with 12 points on just 4-of-6 shooting. However, the rest of the Wildcats’ shooters cut loose from behind the arc and drained 12 three-pointers.
Will North Carolina’s pace tire a shallow Kentucky team that plays only six or seven guys? The Tar Heels like to play around 72 possessions per game, while the Wildcats are more comfortable around 66 possessions per game. If Kentucky shoots well, the Wildcats will have a better chance of controlling the pace. Otherwise, North Carolina’s big men will be looking to make good outlet passes to start the break.
ANSWER: The Tar Heels didn’t come close to making Kentucky uncomfortable. Kentucky occasionally slipped up and allowed North Carolina to get some transition points, but those were few and far between. The Wildcats shot nearly 50 percent from the field and quickly got back on defense to cut off transition opportunities. In addition, Kentucky stayed out of foul trouble, so Calipari did not need to go beyond his seven-man rotation.
Speaking of rebounds, which team will win this battle? North Carolina gets 37.0 percent of its missed shots, which is critical for a team that doesn’t shoot particularly well, especially from three-point range. If Kentucky limits North Carolina’s second chances, the Tar Heels will need an uncharacteristically good shooting day against one of the toughest interior defenses.
ANSWER: North Carolina won the battle, but Kentucky won the war. The Tar Heels collected 35 rebounds to the Wildcats’ 30, but they grabbed only 31.4 percent of their missed shots. Because the Tar Heels were off much of the afternoon, they needed as many second chances as possible, and they didn’t get quite enough.
