If roster and coaching stability means anything, fans in Tallahassee and Chapel Hill should be optimistic about the 2011-12 season.
Florida State and North Carolina figure to return at least 70 percent of their scoring from this year, and they have tenured ACC coaches at the helm. However, each team has a question mark that could decide whether the Seminoles and Tar Heels become stalwarts of the top 10 or bounce around the Top 25 polls.
For Florida State, the Seminoles are waiting on Chris Singleton to decide whether he’ll return to school or enter the NBA Draft. Like the Seminoles, North Carolina needs to hear from Harrison Barnes before getting too giddy about next season’s prospects. If both players return, the Seminoles would have nearly 85 percent of the team’s scoring back, while the Tar Heels would have an ACC-best 91 percent of the team’s scoring back in action.
In Tallahassee, coach Leonard Hamilton has constructed a defensive juggernaut, and Singleton is one of the most dominating defensive presences in the country. The team’s Achilles heel was an inability to score for long stretches. If this team remains intact and collectively improves its shooting during the off-season, the Seminoles should be competing for a top three seed in the next NCAA Tournament.
For the Tar Heels, Barnes might be the most critical player on a talent-rich squad. John Henson and Tyler Zeller already informed coach Roy Williams that they intend to return to campus for another season. But Barnes is gathering more information about his draft stock, and he figures to be a top five pick. Fears of an NBA lockout could drive Barnes back to Chapel Hill, which would be just fine to North Carolina fans who loved Barnes’ clutch shooting late in games in ACC play.
If Barnes isn’t the team’s most valuable player, it’s probably freshman point guard Kendall Marshall, who blossomed when junior Larry Drew II bolted the team mid-season. Marshall immediately became one of the most impressive facilitators in the country. With Marshall at the helm for a whole season, the Tar Heels have high expectations for a more efficient offense in 2011-12.
Besides Florida State and North Carolina, Miami and Georgia Tech also might return nearly 90 percent of the teams’ scoring from this past season. That will depend on whether the Hurricanes’ Reggie Johnson opts to remain in the NBA Draft. Ditto for Georgia Tech’s Iman Shumpert. For the Yellow Jackets, Shumpert is especially crucial as one of the most valuable players in the ACC. He’s an all-around great player, especially on defense. If Shumpert returns for his senior season, new coach Brian Gregory will have a talented young team with a veteran leader at the helm.
However, Gregory’s ability to lead Georgia Tech to success in his first season will depend on how smoothly the team embraces his style. And there’s no guarantee that every player will be on board for a new coach’s strategy. Miami is in the same boat, except the Hurricanes don’t yet know who their coach will be after Frank Haith left for Missouri. Quite a few fans would love to see the university go after Miami-native Frank Martin, who has led a renaissance at Kansas State. However, he doesn’t appear to be a target of the school’s search right now.
After the ACC received plenty of criticism for having a down season, the conference could have several elite teams once again. Nearly three-quarters of the conference might return at least a third of its scoring. With an influx of talented recruits, ACC teams figure to make strides toward the No. 1 spot among the power conferences after sliding to fourth this season. And stability will be a major factor in realizing that potential.
