In theory, a credible player rating system should allow you to begin to compare teams. After all, a team is the sum of its parts, right?
Well, it’s not that simple, as evidenced by the fact that North Carolina State’s players produce a Total Impact Quotient sum of 133.7 in comparison to 109.9 for Duke. Are the Wolfpack really substantially better than the Blue Devils right now? Is that possible even though NC State dropped to 5-3 today after losing at Stanford while Duke is 7-1?
In short, no. But the Wolfpack sure look better than Duke on paper.
- Two NC State players are averaging more than 3.0 assists per game, with Lorenzo Brown averaging 6.3 apg. And the Wolfpack average about 17 per game as a team. No one on Duke averages more than 2.8 apg, and the team average about 12 apg.
- NC State has 38 blocks through the team’s first seven games. Duke has 23.
- The Wolfpack collect offensive rebounds on 40 percent of their missed shots. Duke gets the rebound on offense only 29.5 percent of the time.
Those statistical advantages add up for NC State, which has guys like Lorenzo Brown, Richard Howell and C.J. Leslie putting up TIQs better than 30. Each player has a specialty that helps boost his impact for the Wolfpack.
Brown has been a beast at both ends of the court thus far. He’s averaging 6.3 apg while grabbing 3.0 steals per game. He also rebounds well for a guard, pulling down eight offensive rebounds and nearly five total per game.
Howell is the real beast of the boards, averaging better than eight rpg. He’s also a reliable shooter, making 35 of 69 attempts from the field.
Leslie also has been excellent from the field in his first four games for the Wolfpack, shooting better than 55 percent. He also has 10 blocks and eight steals. That’s about one block or steal every six minutes that he’s on the court. Opposing offenses beware.
Looking beyond the stats, we don’t need to dig too deep to figure out why NC State isn’t on the same level as Duke. If you’ve watched both these teams play, it comes down to getting defensive stops and performing in the clutch. Duke has played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far, and the Blue Devils have found ways to get past Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan and Kansas. They looked tired in a blowout loss at Ohio State, but in every other game, Duke has executed coach Mike Krzyzewski’s game plans to perfection.
NC State probably is still adjusting to new coach Mark Gottfried and his style. They’ve been competitive in losses to Vanderbilt, Indiana and Stanford, but the best teams in the conference — like Duke — find ways to win rather than simply remain close. At times, the Wolfpack have been incapable of guarding perimeter shooters, and they have a horrible habit of getting into foul trouble.
And that’s where stats won’t help. A ton of blocks, offensive rebounds and assists will get players gaudy TIQs. But it matters when the players are getting those stats. Yes, Duke ranks among the bottom 10 percent in assists. But when the Blue Devils needed to convert late in the game against the Wolverines or Volunteers, they made it happen.
I expect the TIQs of the Wolfpack players to start falling by late January when the Wolfpack start playing some tougher competition in the ACC. Until then, this team will likely feast on the likes of NC Central, Western Carolina and Delaware State. They should even fare well early in ACC play against Maryland, Georgia Tech and Boston College. The biggest test of the next six weeks will come Dec. 17 when Syracuse comes to Raleigh.
On the flip side, Duke’s stats should rise. The lack of assists is not terribly surprising with a freshman point guard in Austin Rivers. Doc’s son is a good scoring point guard like his predecessor at Duke, Kyrie Irving. But unlike Irving, Rivers hasn’t emerged as an effective facilitator yet, with about 2.3 turnovers and assists per game. Through hard work in practice and experience in games, Rivers will grow more comfortable running Duke’s offense. If he doesn’t, Coach K won’t hesitate to find someone who can, especially if the losses begin to mount.
So the statistics might not lie, but they certainly don’t tell the whole truth.
In case you’re curious, the only chance NC State will have in the regular season to prove whether it’s better than Duke or not is Feb. 16 at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
And that’s no easy task regardless of how much of an advantage a team might have on paper.
