Florida State would have the look and feel of an elite team if not for one gigantic red flag: turnovers.
The Seminoles have one of the worst turnover percentages in the country, based on Ken Pomeroy’s stats. Florida State gives the ball away nearly once every four possessions. That’s brutal for an offense that shoots fairly well but has a tendency to go into slumps.
The result of such inconsistency is an occasional five- or six-minute scoring drought. In the NCAA Tournament, that could spell disaster against a team that catches fire, especially from long range.
But the Seminoles had been improving until Saturday’s ugly win vs. Virginia. Since the calendar turned to 2012, Florida State had kept the turnover percentage to less than 25 percent in all but one game. Against the Cavaliers, Florida State regressed by committing 19 turnovers in 63 possessions, a 30.1 percent turnover rate. That’s just not going to get it done in most games.
Just imagine how good Florida State would be if the Seminoles could somehow trade for North Carolina’s Kendall Marshall. The ACC’s best point guard has a ridiculous 4-to-1 assist to turnover ratio while playing for one of the fastest-paced teams in the land. Under Leonard Hamilton, the Seminoles also like to get up and down the court, and Marshall would turn an average offense into a very good one.
The Seminoles’ defense already ranks as one of the best in the country, anchored by Bernard James, a former Marine who turns 27 Feb. 7. The intelligent, tough senior is wired for defense, and he blocks more than two shots per game and intimidates shooters more than stats will show. Although James’ defensive contributions are the hallmark of Hamilton’s recent Seminoles teams, they aren’t always enough to make up for the offensive inefficiency.
Five Seminole players commit at least two turnovers per game, which is especially concerning when only one of those players logs 30 minutes per game. If Florida State could take better care of the ball and lower the team’s turnover percentage to just the Division I average, Florida State’s offense would jump from ranking around No. 90 in efficiency to the top 50. That shift in balance would make the Seminoles even more dangerous, and the team would start to look like a legitimate Final Four contender.
As North Carolina and Duke have discovered, the Seminoles can beat any team in the country anywhere on any given night. The problem is that Florida State could lose to just about any team if the Noles start getting sloppy with the ball and run into hot shooters. Improve ball security, and the team can better withstand a lucky shooting streak and make some serious noise in March.
