Duke has the firepower of an elite team.
Duke has the talent of an elite team.
Duke has the most successful coach in Division I history.
But Duke doesn’t have a chance of going much further than the first couple rounds of the NCAA Tournament unless the Blue Devils figure out how to play better defense. In fact, I’m officially putting Duke on upset alert starting with the first game they play in the tournament.
Unlike past Duke teams, this year’s version of the Blue Devils doesn’t generate a ton of turnovers to spark easy baskets on offense. For the first time in 10 years, Duke is forcing turnovers on less than 20 percent of opponents’ possessions. That MIA Duke pressure has been a hallmark of coach Mike Krzyzewski’s teams for years. But it’s nearly nonexistent this season, as Seth Curry is the only player with more than one steal per game.
Because the Blue Devils aren’t forcing mistakes, opponents have been able to take advantage of the plodding defense of the Plumlee brothers and Ryan Kelly. This team lacks the interior shot blocking presence of Shelden Williams or sheer man-size of Brian Zoubek. Miami pretty much showed everyone exactly how to beat Duke in the 78-74 overtime win yesterday: spread out the defense, isolate a defender off a screen, and let a speedier guard go to work. If Duke’s help defense can recover, which it didn’t for much of the loss to the Hurricanes, a shooter should be open on the wing or in the corner.
Of course, Coach K didn’t surpass 900 wins on sheer luck. This team will make adjustments. It was about this time two years ago that Coach K made Brian Zoubek a full-time starter, and the Blue Devils lost only once for the rest of the season en route to a national title. The Blue Devils don’t have anyone with the size of Zoubek to step and make a difference. But it wouldn’t shock me to see more playing time for sophomore guard Tyler Thornton.
In his post game interview after the Miami loss, Coach K bemoaned his team’s effort, which is something he never has to worry about from Thornton. The sophomore from Washington, D.C, plays with a ton of energy, like he’s cherishing every second that he’s on the court. Thornton is not a great shooter, but if he can become the spark plug that helps Austin Rivers, Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly and the rest of the crew reach they’re full potential, he’ll fill a critical need for Duke.
In other words, Thornton could become the team’s emotional leader, a role that has rarely been hard to find on Duke but isn’t clear this season. With so much talent in the backcourt and enough Plumlee muscle in the post, a shot of energy in this lineup could be enough to help Duke get back on track.
But if the Blue Devils don’t respond, this team could lose to just about any upset-minded team that executes a precise game plan to exploit Duke’s defensive gaps. With a few weeks remaining before March Madness, Coach K and the Blue Devil nation are eagerly searching for someone to fill those cracks.
