March Madness might be a little less crazy this season, if recent trends hold up.
That’s because the numbers indicate that a plethora of great offenses and defenses will take care of business as teams navigate through the early rounds and head into the Final Four.
How do I know that there are lots of great offenses and defenses this year? And how do I know some of the outsiders won’t crash the party?
Well, the stats don’t lie. Really, stats don’t say much of anything. They’re just there, and it’s up to us to find trends and patterns that mean something. And here are a few that seem to matter.
Based on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings, which factor in a whole bunch of different offensive and defensive statistical categories, we have a nice look at how teams compare to one another. We also have a good measure for how much better a team plays compared to the average. Because Pomeroy calculates his efficiency ratings by adjusting for tempo, we can get rid of skewed stats like points scored and points allowed and truly compare teams on an even playing field — or court, as the case may be.
For the purposes of this discussion, I calculated the standard deviation for offensive and defensive efficiency to figure out how many teams in each of the past eight seasons possessed an offense or defense that was at least two standard deviations better than average. In a standard bell curve, those teams would rank among the top 2-3 percent in offense or defense. In more simpler terms, how many teams separated themselves from the rest of the pack with a great offense or defense?
OK, that’s enough with the stats class lesson. Here’s the interesting stuff.
- When there are more great offenses, there are fewer first-round upsets.
- When there are more great defenses, fewer surprise teams reach the Final Four.
- In seasons in which there are just straight up more teams with exceptionally good offenses or defenses, there are fewer upsets throughout the tournament and — logically — not many surprise teams reaching the Final Four.
What qualifies as an upset? I call it an upset if a team seeded three spots worse than the favorite wins. So that No. 10 seed beating a No. 7 in the first round is an upset. A No. 6 seed beating a No. 3 seed in the second round is an upset. But it’s not an upset when a No. 9 beats a No. 8 or a No. 5 beats a No. 4. Those are pretty much toss-up games.
And I should mention that I know the proper tournament terminology these days is the second round and third round for what we all used to know and love as the first and second rounds. I’m sticking with the former terms here because most of the tournaments I reviewed did not have a First Four set of games, just that play-in game between No. 16 seeds.
Back to the good stuff. Entering the Feb. 18 games, there are 19 teams that have an offense or defense at least two standard deviations better than average. In the past eight tournaments, we had four tournaments with at least 19 such teams. In the other four tournaments, there were no more than 13 teams with a great offense or defense.
In the four tournaments with 19 or more great offenses or defenses:
- Average upsets in first and second rounds: 7.5
- Average sum of seeds reaching Final Four: 7.25
In the four tournaments with 13 or fewer great offenses or defenses:
- Average upsets in first and second rounds: 10.5
- Average sum of seeds reaching Final Four: 16.5
So in seasons in which there are more teams with a significant advantage on offense or defense, we have three fewer upsets in the first and second rounds. The more significant difference is in the sum of the seeds that reach the Final Four. It’s more than half the total in years with fewer teams with major advantages. To be clear, the sum here is the total value of the seeds of the four teams in the Final Four. So if all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four, the sum is four. Last year, with No. 3 Connecticut, No. 4 Kentucky, No. 8 Butler and No. 11 VCU, we had a sum of 26, the highest in the past eight years.
As things stand now, we’ve got nine teams with a great offense and 11 teams with a great defense. Only one team has both a great offense and defense, giving us a total of 19 different teams. That would indicate that we’ve got a good shot at mostly favorites advancing through the early rounds and not more than one team seeded No. 3 or worse reaching the Final Four. And that makes sense. As the favorites knock out the underdogs, only teams with the best seeds remain.
Here’s an interesting trend about the national champ. Outside Connecticut last season and North Carolina in 2009, every national champ has finished the season with an offense and defense that ranks as two standard deviations better than average. That means we have a clear national championship favorite right now, whom I’ll reveal shortly. In 2009, North Carolina’s offense was ridiculously good, fueled by Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. The Tar Heels didn’t need an elite defense to win the title, and even then, the team’s defense was only a few percentage points away from qualifying as elite.
Last season, the tournament had its fewest elite teams in any of the past eight tournaments. Only 10 teams had either a great offense or defense, and no team had both. So Connecticut took advantage of the opportunity, riding Kemba Walker’s epic March and April to the national title.
Of course, this entire analysis only makes sense if the teams with the top seeds are the ones possessing the best offenses and defenses. Well that’s mostly true. Based on my bracket projections posted yesterday, 11 of my top 16 teams are part of this season’s Great 19. Florida State and Wisconsin are right there, too, as No. 5 seeds. Of the teams I have slotted to receive a No. 4 seed or better, here are the five that do not have an offense or defense at least two standard deviations better than average (right now): North Carolina, Marquette, Baylor, UNLV and Michigan.
North Carolina is awfully close to having both a great offense and defense, and if the Tar Heels make a run to the Final Four or title game, I would expect that they finish the season with the profile of a champion based on recent history. As for Marquette, Baylor, UNLV and Michigan? These teams have some work to do. Yes, I’m putting them on upset alert.
Here’s your list of great offenses:
- Missouri
- Kentucky
- Indiana
- Duke
- Florida
- Creighton
- Belmont
- Syracuse
- Wichita State
And here’s the list of great defenses:
- Ohio State
- Michigan State
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Florida State
- Saint Louis
- Virginia
- Louisville
- Georgetown
- New Mexico
That means your favorite to win the championship, as of Feb. 18 is…Kentucky!
