We’re heading into the final week of the regular season, and Selection Sunday is just a little more than two weeks away. Teams must make their final pitch now for a bid to the tournament or a better seed in the brackets.
At the top of the field, Kentucky and Syracuse look like locks to be No. 1 seeds. And their regions seem certain as well, with the Wildcats likely heading to the South region, where the Cats would play Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Syracuse will probably get the East region, where the Orange would play in Boston for the regional semifinals and finals.
The other No. 1 seeds are still in play. Right now, Duke and Michigan State are pretty much even. Kansas is right behind those two, and Missouri isn’t far behind. And that means the Jayhawks or Tigers will pick up a monstrously important victory Saturday when the two clash in Lawrence. Duke gets Virginia Tech this weekend, while the Spartans face Nebraska. Neither team will gain separation from the winner of the Kansas/Missouri clash against opponents of such ilk.
At the other end of the spectrum, the bubble is pretty sloppy. Arizona, Colorado State, VCU and Dayton are new arrivals this week, primarily because they avoided bad losses and generally didn’t do anything embarrassing. Texas is the first team out because the Longhorns just don’t enough heft on the résumé. Games with Texas Tech and Oklahoma in the next week won’t help, while a road date at Kansas seems unlikely to produce a victory. For Texas to find its way into the tournament, the Longhorns will need a bubble team ahead of them to falter or at least two or three wins in the Big 12 Tournament.
The toughest decision this week was whether to dismiss Miami or Texas from the field. I kept Miami primarily on the strength of the Hurricanes’ road win at Duke. Texas has almost no road victories, and neither team has a major advantage in wins vs. the top 50 or 100. So Miami’s road win against a possible No. 1 seed is a major advantage over the Longhorns. For that matter, the strength of that victory is enough to keep Miami ahead of VCU and Dayton but not enough to get Miami out of a date in the First Four against Arizona.
Let’s get to the brackets. If you want to check out a whole slew of bracket projections, check out the fantastic matrix provided by the Bracket Project.
