So what’s new in the past couple of days?
Well to start, we have lots of automatic bids that have gone out. Teams like Western Kentucky and Detroit surprised conference favorites to grab a ticket to the Big Dance. With 15 more automatic bids left to go, there will be plenty more excitement and unexpected champions in the next few days.
There hasn’t been much movement in seeding as most of the teams predicted to receive a No. 8 seed or better haven’t been in action since last weekend. In the No. 9-12 lines, we’ve seen some movement, with Connecticut moving north in the seeding for the first time in a couple of months. The Huskies won their seventh consecutive Big East Tournament game and second of 2012 by beating West Virginia Wednesday. That gives UConn a No. 10 seed, up from No. 11 a couple of days ago. It also means Connecticut is safely in the field regardless of what happens today against Syracuse.
West Virginia is anything but safe. The Mountaineers slip down to one of the final four teams to reach the NCAA Tournament. And the final four among bubble teams means playing in the First Four games next week. It would not surprise me to see the selection committee bump West Virginia in favor of Drexel. However, I just don’t believe the Dragons have the quality wins on the résumé to justify knocking out 13-loss West Virginia, which has wins against Georgetown, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Miami, Akron, Oral Roberts and South Florida. Drexel has 27 wins, but 19 of them came against teams with an RPI worse than 150.
Seton Hall joins Drexel on the wrong side of the bubble after losing to Louisville in the second round of the Big East Tournament. Those two are my first two teams out of the tournament. With the Pirates’ loss, I’m going with Tennessee over the Pirates. The damage for Seton Hall was done last weekend when DePaul obliterated the Pirates. You can’t lose to a team with an RPI hovering around 200 by 30 at this time of year if you’re on the bubble. Tennessee, on the other hand, is playing very well and has a season sweep of Florida plus wins against Vanderbilt and Connecticut. The Vols’ four losses outside the RPI top 100 put them in a dicey spot as the last team in the field, so they can’t afford to pick up a 14th loss until at least the SEC semifinals.
Check out a slew of other bracket predictions at the Bracket Project.
