Selection Sunday is here. We’re down to the final hours before the selection committee reveals this year’s NCAA Tournament bracket, and there’s still potential for drama this afternoon.
Based on my latest projections, Tennessee should be very nervous. The Volunteers are the last team in right now, which means they’d be the first team out if St. Bonaventure wins the Atlantic 10 title and grabs an automatic bid. Xavier is already safely in the field, so the Musketeers wouldn’t drop out with a loss. In addition, a victory by the Bonnies would mean Southern Miss drops into the First Four and play against Drexel as a No. 13 seed.
At the top, I guarantee that the brackets as I outline them below won’t hold up past this afternoon. That’s because the No. 1 seeds will shift based on the outcome of the ACC and Big Ten championship games. A North Carolina win would keep things pretty simple. The Tar Heels would be the third overall No. 1 seed, playing in the Atlanta/South region, and Michigan State or Ohio State would be the last No. 1 seed, playing in the Phoenix/West region. That would bump Kansas to a No. 2 seed in Phoenix, with the loser of Michigan State vs. Ohio State getting the No. 2 seed in Atlanta.
Florida State could muck all that up though. And really, if John Henson sits for the Tar Heels, I would expect the physical Seminoles to outwork North Carolina on the boards and in the post. Barring a hideously bad shooting game — which the Seminoles are perfectly capable of — Florida State should win if UNC is without Henson. In that scenario, it gets messy. But in the end, the Big Ten champ would be the third No. 1 seed overall and Kansas would be the fourth. North Carolina would join the loser of the Big Ten title game as a No. 2 seed.
If Vanderbilt somehow wins the SEC title, I don’t think much will change. Kentucky would remain the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament. The Commodores could potentially move up to a No. 4 seed. However, I’ve already got them slated as a No. 5 seed, which I feel is a little generous. Yes, a win against the Wildcats would be an elite win. But I don’t think I’d wreck my bracket balance just to move Vandy from a No. 4 seed to a No. 5, especially because the Commodores would still be playing in Portland or Albuquerque.
I’ll have one final bracket projection posted after the early championship games conclude. After that, it’s time to sit back and await the arrival of the official field. As always, you can find a matrix of a bunch of bracket projections over at the Bracket Project.
