Through the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament, which conferences are off to the best start? The answer — mathematically speaking — might surprise you: the Atlantic 10 and Big East.
Yes, the Big Ten has four teams in the Sweet 16, the same number as the Big East. But the Big Ten was supposed to do well with five teams receiving a No. 4 seed or better. In comparison, the Big East had one fewer team among the protected seeds.
In looking at teams’ actual performance vs. expected performance based on seeds, the Atlantic 10 and Big East are shining stars among conferences that sent at least three teams to the Big Dance.
The Atlantic 10 has only one team in the Sweet 16, No. 10 Xavier, and its top team, Temple, went down in an upset in the first round. However, none of the conference’s teams received a seed higher than No. 5. With the Musketeers’ run to the Sweet 16 and Saint Louis’ upset over Memphis, which had been a trendy pick to make a run to the Elite Eight, the Atlantic 10 has three wins in the tournament. Based on seed expectations, the conference should only have about 2.58 wins, so it’s doing 16 percent better than expected.
Seed expectations look at the historical performance of teams that have received that seed to calculate an expected number of wins in the tournament. Not surprisingly, the top seeds are supposed to do well. No. 1 seeds are expected to win 3.32 games — it’s Final Four or bust, in other words. No. 2 seeds are expected to win 2.41 games. Teams seeded No. 3-6 are the only other ones expected to win more than one game. So Xavier’s run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed gives the Musketeers two wins when the average No. 10 seed gets only 0.66 wins. Of course, the average No. 10 seed doesn’t get to play a No. 15 seed in the third round, but that’s not accounted for in the averages. So yes, the Atlantic 10 has caught some breaks to exceed expectations.
However, it’s hard to argue with the Big East. Despite having four teams seeded No. 4 or better, the conference is still outperforming expectations. No. 6 Cincinnati and No. 4 Louisville are a big reason for that. The Bearcats handled No. 11 Texas in the second round before taking out No. 3 Florida State, a team many experts figured could reach the Final Four. That gives Cincinnati two wins when the average No. 6 seed collects 1.28 in the Big Dance.
Equally important, the Big East’s top teams have avoided upsets, with only No. 3 Georgetown and No. 7 Notre Dame bowing out earlier than expected. An upset by No. 12 South Florida against Temple pretty much made up that difference in seed performance. So through the first few rounds, the Big East is outperforming its seed expectations by about 14 percent. That’s tops among the power conferences.
| Conference | Expected Wins (so far) | Actual Wins | % More/Fewer Wins vs. Expected |
| Atlantic 10 | 2.58 | 3 | 16.28 |
| Big East | 9.68 | 11 | 13.64 |
| SEC | 4.58 | 5 | 9.17 |
| ACC | 6.94 | 7 | 0.86 |
| Big Ten | 9.25 | 9 | -2.7 |
| West Coast | 2.39 | 2 | -16.32 |
| Pac-12 | 1.5 | 1 | -33.33 |
| Big 12 | 7.66 | 5 | -34.73 |
| Missouri Valley | 1.84 | 1 | -45.65 |
| Mountain West | 4.21 | 1 | -76.25 |
| Conference USA | 1.27 | 0 | -100 |
On the flip side, no conference is having a more disappointing tournament than the Mountain West. Its four teams were expected to produce 4.21 victories in the Big Dance. Only New Mexico scratched out a win before losing in the third round to Louisville. The conferences No. 6 seeds, UNLV and San Diego State, both lost in the second round to No. 11 seeds. That hurts the performance vs. expectations. Overall, the Mountain West delivered 76 percent fewer wins than expected.
Among the other power conferences, the SEC is having a good run thanks to No. 7 Florida’s trip to the Sweet 16. The ACC and Big Ten are pretty much right on schedule. The Big 12 brings up the rear, largely because of Missouri’s shocking loss to No. 15 Norfolk State. Although the ACC also had a No. 2 seed fall, the success of No. 11 NC State has made up for that. The Big 12’s two lower seeds, No. 11 Texas and No. 8 Kansas State, collected only one win between them, a little less than expected for those two seeds. Meanwhile, No. 2 Kansas and No. 3 Baylor have done what they’re supposed to.
It’s still fairly early in the tournament, and the conferences represented in the Final Four will have the most to crow about. But entering the Sweet 16, the bragging rights among multi-bid conferences go to the Atlantic 10 and Big East. And the Big 12 has some work left to do to get over the black eye that Missouri delivered in the Tigers’ early exit.
