Non-conference play is almost over, and it has been quite a stretch. We’ve learned a good deal about a lot of teams, while some are still a mystery for various reasons – injuries, suspensions, ineligibility and a light schedule are all possible reasons. In addition, a few conferences have already seen a game or two mixed in with the non-conference schedule.
Conference play is right around the corner, and while a non-conference resume doesn’t tell the whole story, it does shed some light on teams and conferences. In conference play, there is more familiarity since teams play each other every year, although the changing landscape is starting to diminish that factor a bit. That’s one reason why we see some teams put forth a very good non-conference showing, including some good wins, then go on to have a mediocre showing in conference play.
With that in mind, here’s a look at how every conference in America shapes up.
ACC: Duke has emerged as a relatively clear favorite with a very impressive non-conference run. North Carolina can’t be ruled out, while Florida State has been tough to figure out but may be trending in the right direction now and Miami and Maryland could be in the mix as well. The team no one may want to play come February is Georgia Tech, which may be a year away from reaching the full potential with this core but has had a nice non-conference run to this point.
America East: This should come down to Vermont and Stony Brook, with Albany as another possibility as they have had a good run despite a difficult schedule. Boston University could be an X-factor even though they are not eligible for the conference tournament.
Atlantic 10: Charlotte has the best record and could be a dark horse, but the favorites right now look like Butler, Temple and VCU. La Salle and Dayton have had good non-conference showings, while preseason favorite Saint Joseph’s has not. No one should run away with this conference, as Saint Louis, UMass and young Xavier could be factors as well. The spoiler could be Rhode Island, which is rebuilding but looks capable of knocking off a top-four team at home late in the season.
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast has a win over Miami as part of its 8-5 mark and along with Mercer looks like the favorite. Mercer is 3-3 on the road, something not to be dismissed.
Big 12: No surprise here: Kansas comes away looking like the favorite, but after them is a group of solid teams with no clear leader. Oklahoma State, buoyed by Marcus Smart, has been excellent, while Baylor has loads of talent and Iowa State and Kansas State could be factors. Texas is the toughest team to project.
Big East: There are plenty of candidates to come out on top here, but perhaps it’s worth noting the pleasant surprises – Cincinnati and Notre Dame. It’s not a surprise that Louisville, Pittsburgh and Syracuse have been very good, or even Georgetown. Seton Hall and Providence have nice records but are tough to project because neither has played a tough schedule.
Big Sky: Weber State and Montana have the early lead with 2-0 marks in conference games, and that’s not a surprise since they projected as favorites before the season.
Big South: Don’t be surprised if the champion comes from the South Division, where Gardner-Webb, Winthrop and UNC-Asheville have been arguably the three best teams. Radford is battle-tested in the North but has lost four in a row.
Big Ten: Indiana and Michigan might look like the class of the conference, but they won’t run away with this. Michigan State and Ohio State are very capable, while Illinois has emerged as the pleasant surprise and Minnesota and Iowa may be the dark horses, although the latter doesn’t have a resume loaded with good wins.
Big West: Cal State Northridge has the best record, and only two others are above .500. But it would be a mistake to write off Pacific and Long Beach State, the latter with just a 4-7 record, as both have played very tough non-conference schedules. Pacific has wins over Xavier and Saint Mary’s
Colonial: It has not been a good couple of months for this conference on the hardwood. George Mason has had the best non-conference showing and has the most talent, but Drexel may be coming around and Delaware will be battle-tested from a very tough schedule. Northeastern will be a dark horse now that they have their leader back, and don’t sleep on James Madison, who started 1-5 but has come alive and has a good mix of veterans and talented freshmen.
Conference USA: Houston and Tulane have the best records, but Memphis should still be the team to beat. East Carolina and SMU have played easy schedules, so don’t read too much into their records (East Carolina has three wins against non-Division I teams).
Great West: NJIT is battle-tested and the only team with a winning record. It’s fair to crown them as the favorites based off the non-conference slate.
Horizon League: Illinois-Chicago has emerged as the favorite, but Valparaiso should still be right there and Loyola has been a pleasant surprise.
Ivy League: Harvard has managed well despite being very young and not very deep. The expectation before the season was that this would come down to them and Princeton, and thus far Ivy teams haven’t done much to dispute that although Columbia could be a dark horse as the Lions have had their moments with wins at Villanova and American.
MAAC: Loyola (Md.) was thought to be the favorites before the season, and they still figure to be right there. Fairfield has won four in a row and may be trending in the right direction, and the real surprise is Canisius, the only team to go 2-0 in early conference games.
MAC: Ohio should be the team to beat here, and they haven’t done much to dispel that thus far. Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan look like the best of the West Division, with Eastern having played an odd schedule featuring two non-Division I teams and some tough teams (Syracuse, Michigan).
MEAC: Don’t be surprised if Norfolk State, which has had some personnel adjustments including injuries, comes out on top again.
Missouri Valley: Creighton and Wichita State look like the clear favorites here, but there is good quality in this conference as they have had a very good couple of months. Illinois State is right there, most notably, and the middle of the pack isn’t bad.
Mountain West: While San Diego State and UNLV still figure to be favorites, there are several teams who could knock one or both of them off along the way. Start with New Mexico, who scored a nice road win at Cincinnati on Thursday night, then go to Wyoming, who is 12-0 even if it is against a schedule not loaded with world-beaters (two non-Division I teams). The Cowboys do have a win against Colorado and at Illinois State. Colorado State has a good record with wins at Washington and against Virginia Tech (neutral). Boise State also looks like they can be a factor as well, as could Air Force.
Northeast: Robert Morris may be the team to beat, but don’t sleep on a Wagner team that has a new coach but a lot of veterans. LIU should still be in the mix as well, but Julian Boyd (season-ending knee injury) is a huge loss. Bryant may be the sleeper, as they have confidence from a winning record and the chemistry is coming together. Central Connecticut could be another now that Matt Hunter has settled into his role complementing Kyle Vinales.
Ohio Valley: Murray State is once again the class of this conference. Belmont is capable of pushing them, and Eastern Kentucky has a 10-2 record that will give them confidence.
Pac-12: Arizona is a clear favorite as they have been superb thus far. Colorado probably had the second-best showing of any team, while Oregon and California have shown promise. UCLA is a tough team to figure out and as much a mystery now as before the season – a team with plenty of potential but questions as to whether they will harness all of it. Arizona State has a nice record against a light schedule.
Patriot League: As expected before the season, this should come down to Bucknell and Lehigh. A few other teams figure to be tough outs, but the teams to beat are the ones we expected.
SEC: With Kentucky having a few question marks (namely point guard play and upperclassmen leadership), this looks to be there for the taking between Missouri and Florida. After those three, it’s wide open. Ole Miss and LSU have nice records but a lack of significant wins, so they are unknown quantities.
Southern: Davidson and College of Charleston look like the best teams here, although Elon is battle-tested with a win over South Carolina to its credit.
Southland: This looks like Stephen F. Austin’s to lose as their 9-1 record includes a 3-1 mark on the road, with one coming at Oklahoma, but also four wins over non-Division I opponents. Northwestern State and McNeese State have played tougher slates but also have three wins each over non-Division I opponents, and Sam Houston State might be the one not to sleep on because they have played the toughest slate of any in this conference with a winning record.
Summit League: Western Illinois is off to a 2-0 start in early games, and North Dakota State and South Dakota State are nipping at their heels. It should come down to those three.
Sun Belt: Is Western Kentucky back? They look like the team to beat here and are 3-0 in early conference games, although South Alabama has the same record. The Hilltoppers won’t be dealing with an in-season coaching change, though. Middle Tennessee should be right there as well.
SWAC: As usual, teams in this conference have played road-heavy slates, but only two – Southern and Jackson State – have road wins. Prairie View and Southern look like the favorites here based on non-conference performance.
WAC: This is probably Utah State’s to lose, although Louisiana Tech has had a nice stretch as well. Neither has played a very daunting non-conference schedule.
West Coast: Gonzaga is the team to beat. Little more needs to be said. Saint Mary’s and Brigham Young could give chase, and Santa Clara could be a sleeper, but there looks to be a little separation this year.
