Leading up to the NBA Draft, much was said about how weak it was. The jury on that is out, although going by how a draft looked at the time it certainly appears to be the weakest one in a long time. But a key reason the draft was perceived as such is also the reason it was well worth watching and didn’t disappoint those who figured there would be a lot to take from this.
Just take a look at the eyebrow-raising results on the evening:
- Nerlens Noel, thought by most to be the most likely No. 1, wasn’t selected until No. 6
- Victor Oladipo went No. 2, which was unthinkable even a few months ago
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, hidden away on a mediocre SEC team and off many radars during the season, went at No. 8
- Andre Roberson, a tweener if ever there was one, went in the first round
- Tony Mitchell, thought to be a lottery pick before the season, was among several notable players not to go in the first round
- Ricky Ledo might have been as talented as any player in the draft, but went in the middle of the second round
Who would have imagined any of this back in October when practice began?
There is much to be taken from this draft, however, and it’s not all negative.
For one, player development matters. Oladipo is a story in that, as no one would have ever imagined him being a lottery pick, let alone No. 2 overall when he was in high school. Otto Porter is a similar story, and though a safe pick as he has upside but is probably closer to his ceiling than many others. Kelly Olynyk might be as good a story as anyone in this sense as well, as he made a monumental leap during a redshirt year to go from being a role player to an All-American and now a lottery pick.
On the opposite side of the coin, there are players who didn’t get better and had that reflected on the evening. Lorenzo Brown was a big-time prospect out of high school but was just a good college player, hence his second-round selection. Teammate C.J. Leslie has long been a tease, showing signs of becoming a star before being plagued again by inconsistency. Adonis Thomas looks like the prototype small forward at first glance, but didn’t get much better at Memphis, with injuries playing a role in that. B.J. Young could always score but hasn’t developed much of a jump shot.
In addition, teams are risk averse. Perhaps because this draft wasn’t full of franchise players, teams seemed to go more with safety than upside than they usually do. Anthony Bennett doesn’t have the upside of a Nerlens Noel, but he’s ready to contribute right away and is a safer pick. Noel, on the other hand, has an injury history – besides the ACL tear last season, in high school he broke the growth plate on the same knee. Then there’s Ledo, as talented as anyone in the draft and with a lot of upside, going 43rd overall. Ledo hasn’t played basketball in over a year and his teams haven’t always been big winners, so he was something of a mystery to teams looking more for safety.
Perhaps most of all, as much as any other this draft should drive home that it’s not the 60 best prospects who hear their names called on this night. There is a lot that goes into this, from a team’s salary cap and personnel situation to how a player fits with core players already on the team. Some teams draft international players to stash them away for a year or two because they have a veteran cast and a lot of salary on the books. Some teams draft a player more ready to contribute right away but with less upside because they need some instant help. Some are in a position to take a risk on someone who has more upside but may not contribute much right away because their core is firmly intact.
And because it was a weak draft, some teams saw less risk in some players than they might in other drafts. Witness Roberson, built like a small forward but with the game of a power forward. Rebounding translates at all levels, and perhaps the Thunder saw less risk in taking him as a tweener than others might. The fact that the Thunder don’t need someone to come in and play a big role right away probably helped.
It all added up to a draft that at first glance might seem to have been full of surprises. In fact, it should be looked at as a draft with no real surprises, because it’s debatable just what we should have expected in the first place.
