One story that has seemingly been a constant this off-season is the life and times of P.J. Hairston. There’s good reason for it: the North Carolina rising junior led one of the nation’s most visible programs in scoring last season and bypassed a weak NBA Draft to return to school. Usually, that would mean a lot of talk about him as a potential All-American the following season and about how high he could go in the next draft with an additional year of development. Instead, he has had an off-season to forget. While his fate is still to be determined, what hasn’t been talked about much is that if he does eventually return to the court, the Tar Heels could be one of those teams that has some early adversity but is much more dangerous later in the season.
Every season, some teams have early personnel adversity they must overcome that is temporary in nature. Often, this takes the form of injuries, but disciplinary issues can come into play as well. The team usually loses a game or two they might not lose with a full squad, but at some point they will have that squad together. When that team is finally whole, they end up much more formidable.
Last year provided one such example with the national champions. Louisville lost Gorgui Dieng to an injury in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, and without him lost to Duke in the championship game. The Cardinals then won six straight before he returned, and in that return game they beat Kentucky. Dieng led the team in rebounding or tied for team-high honors in 23 of the 33 games in which he played. While he was out, Stephen Van Treese led the team in rebounding twice, something he did one other time on the season, and averaged 5.7 rebounds per game in the seven games Dieng missed while averaging 3.1 on the entire season. He led them in rebounding once in the Big East Tournament.
Van Treese is just one obvious example of a player who benefited from Dieng’s absence and helped the team more later in the season. His improvement was something that was necessary for the Cardinals to win while Dieng was out, and it helped make them more formidable later in the season en route to their national championship.
North Carolina’s athletic director said last week that Hairston will miss some games this season. Roy Williams has not taken action yet save for a meaningless suspension, perhaps because with no games for another two and a half months, there isn’t anything he can do that will show he means business. What this punishment ultimately entails is anyone’s guess right now, but one can figure the Tar Heels will take a hit in the early going and might lose a game or two they could win with him. However, that stretch might shape their season’s ultimate outcome.
Without Hairston, the Tar Heels will have to do some other things to succeed, especially offensively. Sophomore point guard Marcus Paige has to grow up faster, although that was already going to be true with freshman Nate Britt coming in to press him for minutes. Britt fits the way Roy Williams loves to run, so he could see good minutes right away and perhaps alongside Paige. James Michael McAdoo will have to be more of a go-to guy early on as well, as he can’t play off Hairston’s shooting ability and the attention it will draw or settle for being a complementary player. Leslie McDonald, probably their best shooter with Hairston out, has to play a bigger role than they probably had envisioned and perhaps be more of a complementary player.
If any of those things happen, it will be a good development for North Carolina, especially if Hairston is back by the time ACC play gets going. If more than one of those developments occur, the Tar Heels could be in great shape in an ACC that looks to be loaded with Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame joining an already strong core and some teams trying to rise up from the middle or lower half of the conference. Anytime a team adds the player who led them in scoring a year earlier, it’s a significant addition, and that would make them more formidable.
Certainly, such a scenario isn’t without challenges. With Hairston out for a lot of practice and game action, integrating him back into the team’s flow can pose a challenge. Roles will change, even if only slightly for some, and newcomers won’t be used to playing with him. Hairston will have a rust factor as well, and that will be true no matter how much he works out on his own as there is a difference between practice speed and game speed.
So getting Hairston back won’t mean a seamless or trivial change. It is, however, a pleasant problem for Roy Williams to have, and clearly better than the scenario of having to adjust after losing a key player for the remainder of the season. It’s always better to add a player than subtract one unless the player has been a cancer on the team.
This scenario also positions the Tar Heels to be another team that has early adversity but gets stronger later in the season. It’s not a given that they will do so and have an outcome similar to the one Louisville had last season, but it is one possibility. It will be up to the Tar Heels to develop without Hairston in such a way that his return and a good adjustment to his return will make them tougher to beat. How they manage without him will probably shape their season.
