There are 351 NCAA Division I basketball teams. No more, and certainly no less.
That has always been the guiding principle for how we’ve followed college hoops, from a young age on. Regardless of school budget, or endowment, or how many pros it has generated, or how much TV money it receives from its conference.
Big or small, the fact of the matter is, as Lefty Driesell used to point out, every D-I school gets the same amount of scholarships. In a sport with such limited rosters and where only five players can be on the floor at the same time, good teams can come from anywhere. That’s been proven time and time again in the NCAA Tournament for decades. And in our quest for knowledge, that’s why we’ve always preferred to leave no stone unturned in trying to find good teams.
Which are the “power” conferences? Who are “mid-majors?”
Pardon us if we politely ask: “Who cares?”
Division I is Division I. TV networks can carry the water for a few richest conferences, pushing a perception that their revenues automatically make their teams superior. So can many major media (which, not coincidentally, is often made of alumni from those conferences). We’ll pass.
Indeed, there are vast differences between the programs under the D-I umbrella. Kentucky and Longwood have little in common. If one is being honest, though, they will also admit that other than conference affiliation, UCLA and Washington State also have very little in common.
And there is nothing wrong with that. No matter how big or small the school, there are always stories abounding across the country. That includes in the preseason.
Searching for those stories, we like to find what we simply call our list of teams to keep an eye on coming into the season. Some fall in the category of up-and-coming teams or sleeper picks. Some are powers. Some are just teams we enjoy watching. In most cases, we just think these are teams you’re going to be hearing from before the end of this year. Or we’re just fascinated to see where their seasons wind up going.
It’s a preseason exercise we’ve come to enjoy, particularly in measuring our guesses at the end of the season. Sometimes we hit (we humbly suggest our thoughts on North Dakota before last season or Furman two years ago). Sometimes we miss (we won’t talk about Long Beach State or Sam Houston State last year).
2016-17 20 to watch list
2015-16 20 to watch list
By identifying those teams, one could say we’re putting them in a box. We just hope it’s a box representing the breadth of Division I well.
Albany: The Great Danes are a personal favorite every year. Will Brown’s teams are tough, rebound, fear no one, and are always there in March. And while Vermont is getting all the pub in the America East, it should be remembered that Albany had the top seed Catamounts on the ropes in the conference tourney final last year before UVM rallied late. Vermont returns just about everyone, but the Great Danes also return their top five scorers, including the excellent backcourt of Joe Cremo and David Nichols plus lunch pail big man Greig Stire. Vermont will be good, likely really good. But Albany still might be better.
Ball State: The Mid-American Conference is wide open, and Ball State is an intriguing prospect. The Cardinals shoot the 3 well, have a MAC player of the year candidate in Taylor Parsons, and their schedule has early opportunities to impress with road trips to Dayton, Oklahoma, Oregon and Notre Dame. Win a couple of those, and the hype train would ramp up in a hurry.
Bucknell: The Bison probably should be in everyone’s top 40 going into this season, and might deserve darkhorse top 25 consideration. Nearly everyone returns from a deep team that has two real standouts-a real low-post scorer and defender in Nana Foulland and a versatile swingman in Zach Thomas who can shoot 3s or drive it with equal skill. Add a good point guard (Stephen Brown), plenty of three-point shooting, and even guys who can get their own shot off the dribble. The sky seems to be the limit in Lewisburg, Pa., and coach Nathan Davis scheduled accordingly. Don’t be surprised if his team wins one or more of its chances against the likes of Arkansas, Maryland, North Carolina and VCU.
Cincinnati: Mick Cronin’s Bearcats are always tough, always physical, always good on defense. Quietly, though, he has also been improving this team’s offensive arsenal, and returnees like Jacob Evans, Kyle Washington and Jarron Cumberland are capable of filling it up. If Sacred Heart transfer Cane Broome’s high-scoring game translates to a higher level, UC just might be a Final Four contender.
Evansville: The Purple Aces won’t be a favorite in the Missouri Valley. Some are picking them in the basement. They make this list, though, because Marty Simmons is one of the last coaches left running a true motion offense, as this sport’s obsession with ever-shrinking shot clocks leads to teams running ever-more boring offenses with ever-increasing numbers of ball screens, isolation plays and 2-3 “spacers” standing around. Every purist and aficionado of good, team-oriented offense should enjoy the beauty of players working for a shot, cutting, screening and wearing out a defense without needing 25 dribbles per possession, like the Aces do. While they still can.
Houston: The Cougars under Kelvin Sampson have developed into a perennial wild card in the AAC. Rob Gray-seemingly entering his eighth year at UH-can fill it up, Galen Robinson is the definition of the heady point guard who distributes and takes care of the ball, and Sampson teams always play defense. Houston is counting on Devin Davis and a lot of newcomers up front, but if they produce, an NCAA tourney bid isn’t out of the question.
Jacksonville State: The Gamecocks are no sleeper anymore-that would’ve been last year, when a team picked low in the Ohio Valley surprised from start (a season-opening win at Tulsa) to finish (OVC tourney title and a first-ever trip to Division I NCAA Tournament). Ray Harper quickly engineered a turnaround, and even though Belmont isn’t going away and Murray State is expected to ascend back to its perch as one of the conference’s powers, JSU also should be good. It’s a team with uncommon size for the OVC (see: 7-0 Norbertas Giga) and that is tough defensively and on the glass. Watch them in early season games against the likes of Richmond, Mississippi State and Oregon State.
Louisiana-Lafayette: The Sun Belt is on the uptick, with a number of teams looking capable of making some serious noise this year, almost all of them seemingly with dynamic duos (Texas-Arlington, Georgia Southern, Georgia State and Troy). Add the Ragin’ Cajuns to that list, with Frank Bartley and Bryce Washington-a superb rebounder at 6-6-leading the way, but there’s a lot more around them, including several big-name transfers. The school that likes to be called Louisiana was already good last year-21 wins, including its best non-conference record in nearly three decades and a winning road record. If it all meshes, the Cajuns could have a big year.
Mercer: The Southern Conference has provided some of the raciest jockeying for position at the top the last couple years, a vastly improved and entertaining league that included a three-way tie for first last year. These Bears didn’t finish in that tie last year, or even fourth or fifth, but they’re equipped to make a run this year. All five starters-including a strong backcourt of Ria’n Holland, Demetre Rivers and Jordan Strawberry-return from a team that lost nine games by six points or less. Maybe another year experience reverses some of those. Besides, it’s been a little while since we’ve heard from a Bob Hoffman team. The Bears seem due.
Montana State: In a Big Sky full of intriguing teams with stars and burgeoning stars, the Bobcats are at the top of the list because of Tyler Hall. One of the best-kept secrets in the country the last two years, Hall has played on middling teams (which have still been better than some in the recent past in Bozeman). Now, his task is to carry the Cats-who return all five starters and have huge transfer additions Konnor Frey and Keljin Blevins to add to the mix-to another level and get them to at least the brink of their first NCAA appearance since 1996.
Northern Iowa: A second from the Missouri Valley. With all the hubbub about Wichita State leaving the Valley, it seemed many forgot just how good UNI was not that long ago-top 15 in the country in 2014-15, should’ve been in the Sweet 16 a year later. It is a fact the Panthers were not very good last year, but Ben Jacobson’s teams usually bounce back after subpar years. This is a big-time prove-it year for veterans like Klint Carlson and Bennett (we slipped and typed in brother Adam’s name before) Koch, who have shown in the past that when on they can lead their team to great things.
Oakland: The Golden Grizzlies always are good offensively and always have talent (Jalen Hayes and Martez Walker are all-conference types, and Illinois transfer Kendrick Nunn may well be one, too). What they don’t have yet is an NCAA bid since joining the Horizon League in 2013, though they’ve regularly been in contention. Valparaiso is gone to the MVC and Greg Kampe’s club is primed to become the Horizon’s signature program. Oakland also has quietly improved defensively (notably harassing Valpo’s outstanding Alec Peters last year), and that could make the Grizzlies a team capable of not just making the NCAAs, but winning some games there.
Purdue: We can’t get over the transformation the Boilermakers have made, from a team whose guards were considered a liability to one of the best outside-shooting teams in the country. Isaac Haas and Vincent Edwards are still there inside-and Haas could have a monster year offensively if he ever played 30 minutes/game-but its Purdue’s shooting and experience now combined with an inside game that make the Boilers consistently solid in the regular season, and a team capable of going deep in March.
San Francisco: Saint Mary’s is the team getting all the attention in the WCC, Gonzaga is the perennial top dog, and BYU is perpetually considered the top challenger to those two. Seemingly forgotten is just how quickly Kyle Smith made the Dons a player in his first year on the Hilltop. If experienced USF improves even moderately from Smith’s good first year, a top-three finish and even NCAA Tournament contention is not out of the question at all.
Seton Hall: The Pirates are experienced, with four starters. They have the best rebounder in the country in Angel Delgado. And they’ve now had two straight years as contenders in the tough Big East. Everything would seem to be set up for a big run this year, but the Hall still has room for improvement as poor shooting, turnovers and depth have been issues. If the Pirates can build depth that helps in those other two areas…look out.
South Dakota: Like San Francisco, the Coyotes were one of the most pleasant surprises of last season. They won’t sneak up on anyone this year, but they still will be a favorite in the Summit League. You’ll hear all about South Dakota State’s Mike Daum this year-rightfully so. But USD’s Matt Mooney also could be one of the top scorers in the country.
Towson: College of Charleston is the chic pick to win the CAA and Elon is the popular darkhorse, but the Tigers just might wind up better than both. Like those two, Pat Skerry’s team also is experienced, and the Tigers attack the glass and are tough. If they can score a little more easily this year, they could make their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 27 years. We’ll find out a lot about them during a tough four-game stretch after Christmas including trips to Oakland and Pittsburgh, plus Towson’s first two CAA games-at Charleston and at Elon.
UNC Asheville: The Bulldogs are tenacious defensively, and for once they didn’t have their best players pried away in the offseason. Enjoy watching Ahmad Thomas play defense, knock down 15-footers and play much bigger than his 6-foot-3 frame, and MaCio Teague is a big guard with the potential to dominate the Big South. This is a fun team to watch.
Virginia: Like it or not (and we know, some don’t like their style), the Cavaliers have been one of the premier programs in the country the last four years. Most of the faces who made those teams (Justin Anderson, Malcolm Brogdon, London Perrantes, etc.) are gone. On paper, it might appear the Wahoos may struggle to make the NCAA Tournament, but top-notch programs even without blueblood stature carry on even as faces change (see: Butler). This season will be a great test of the national staying power of UVA.
Yale: Talk about programs that reload-the Elis have reached that status in the Ivy League, a fascinating league that should have a superb race among Yale, Harvard, Princeton and even Pennsylvania. Two starters depart, but 2016 NCAA Tournament hero Makai Mason returns after a foot injury cost him last season. This is another program that no longer fears anyone-see its trip across country to defeat Washington and Markelle Fultz in its season opener last year, its first game without Mason. The Bulldogs open with Creighton and Wisconsin this season and could make immediate noise again.
Five more for honorable mention: Idaho, Kansas State, Mississippi, Murray State, Notre Dame
Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam
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