The Morning Dish – Monday, December 25, 2017

A very Merry Christmas to our readers.

With a challenge comes an opportunity, whether on the athletic playing field or in the office. For New Mexico State, that is what this Christmas will bring: the challenge of playing USC, with the opportunity to win a tournament championship and get some time in the spotlight.

For so long of late, the Aggies have been hidden away while they have done a lot of winning. This is their chance to move out from under the radar, if only for a spell.

But it is also an opportunity for USC, though not as many will think of it that way. This is a Trojans team from which much was expected – high rankings in the polls, serious contention in the Pac-12, and a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. But if Selection Sunday was yesterday, instead of over two months away, the Trojans might have to sweat it out a bit. Pac-12 play is around the corner, and they will have a lot more work to do than anyone might have imagined.

USC has an RPI in the low 40s, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They have two top 50 wins, but one of them – UC Santa Barbara – will probably decline in value, perhaps significantly, the rest of the way. The other one, Saturday’s win over Middle Tennessee in the semifinals, may decline in value, but not nearly as much, although basketball people realize that beating Middle Tennessee is a quality win. Their other top 100 win came over North Dakota State, and it’s another one that will surely decline in value, as will their win over Cal State Fullerton, who sits a little outside the top 100.

You get the idea: the Trojans need a quality win. They beat Vanderbilt, but the Commodores’ RPI is closer to 200 than 100. They whiffed on their other big chances, losing by double digits to Texas A&M and at SMU while dropping a close one to Oklahoma at the Staples Center. Their loss to Princeton just before heading to Hawaii won’t help, either, though the Tigers will contend for the Ivy League title along with Harvard and Yale.

The Trojans’ play is part of a conference-wide phenomenon, as the Pac-12 hasn’t fared very well thus far. Arch-rival UCLA gave the conference a boost with their win over Kentucky in New Orleans on Saturday, but that won’t make up for what has transpired thus far. Half of the conference ranks in the top 75 in RPI, but three of those teams have losses against teams with RPIs that have three digits.

New Mexico State’s RPI is in the top 40, and while a win over the Aggies might decline a bit in value the rest of the way given the WAC’s overall weakness, basketball people understand that New Mexico State is quality team. This is one more opportunity to get a good win before conference play, one more opportunity to look like a team that did not over-schedule, one more opportunity to look a little like the team many expected them to be before the season.

USC still has plenty of opportunities to reach the potential they were thought to have before the season. Monday night’s championship game in the Diamond Head Classic is a key, though, because for a team to get a high seed in the NCAA Tournament, some non-conference success is a necessity. The Trojans haven’t had quite enough of that yet, but they have one last chance for it, and one last chance to make their mark before Pac-12 play.

Tonight’s Menu

Only the final day of action in the Diamond Head Classic is on tap, so there are four games.

• The seventh place game will lead it off with Akron taking on Davidson (12:30 p.m.)
• Next up, host Hawaii will take on Princeton in a battle for fifth place (2:30 p.m.)
• The third game is the championship game, where USC will take on New Mexico State (6 p.m.)
• The tournament concludes with the third place game, where Miami takes on Middle Tennessee (8:30 p.m.)