For more than a quarter century now, regular season performance has almost always guaranteed postseason advancement for top seeds in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.
The MVC has been coming to St. Louis for Arch Madness for 27 years, including the last 22 as a 10-team event with two first round games on a Thursday or Friday night followed the next day by four quarterfinal games. Just once in all that time has a 1 or 2 seed in the MVC tourney lost in the quarterfinals (Creighton was the guilty party in 1998, falling to No. 7 seed Bradley). For a time of year when upsets are so obviously the norm, it’s a remarkable level of success for top seeds getting to at least the semifinals.
For those who follow the league with any kind of close eye, though, it would surprise just about none of them if this year is different. Seventh-seeded Missouri State and ninth-seeded Northern Iowa are not your average play-in teams in the MVC tourney, and both set up very intriguing quarterfinal matchups in the 2018 edition of this event after UNI opened by defeating 8 seed Evansville 60-50 and Missouri State then held off 10th-seeded Valley newbie Valparaiso 83-79 in first round games Thursday at the Scottrade Center.
The capability of the Panthers and Bears is a commentary on the strength of the lowest-seeded Valley teams this year-regardless of what their conference records may say-as well as the complete inability of almost anyone to break free from the pack in what has been overall a parity-filled but very good year for the MVC.
The Valley has had a few seasons in the last four decades when it was better overall than this year, when it is a very healthy eighth in conference RPI. (2006 when the league nabbed four NCAA bids and sent two teams to the Sweet 16 immediately comes to mind). Certainly it has had seasons with more standout teams. It’s possible, though, that the league has never had less separation between the top and bottom-especially teams two through 10-than this year.
After decisive regular season champion Loyola, the remainder of this year’s MVC was separated by a combined five games from second through 10th. Spots 4 through 9 were separated by two games.
The outsider can see that parity as mediocrity or strength. The resumes of the two winners of this year’s MVC tourney first round games, though, should suggest the latter.
Loyola posted the Valley’s premier non-conference win this season, defeating Florida on the road. The league’s second-best win by RPI, though, was UNI topping North Carolina State in November. Its third- and fourth-best wins? Those both come courtesy of Missouri State-one in a pseudo-road game at Summit League champion South Dakota State, the other in a raucous road environment at a good Western Kentucky team.
Northern Iowa also has wins this season over SMU and UNLV, while Missouri State also took down Horizon League runner-up Wright State. In other words, while both teams’ losses made them at times some of the more perplexing teams in the country, when looking at how capable a team is plus just how tight the MVC pack was, Loyola and Southern Illinois are stuck playing what very easily could be a couple 4 or 5 seeds in their quarterfinal games.
Northern Iowa showed on Thursday against Evansville the form it will need if it is to make another run in March. In a rematch of the 2016 MVC tourney final, the Panthers were outstanding defensively, shutting down Valley leading scorer Ryan Taylor (two points, or 20 below his average). They controlled play inside-Bennett Koch and Klint Carlson combined for 21 rebounds; committed just four turnovers, and also got enough timely buckets from outside, including some from an unlikely source playing the best ball of his career.
Hunter Rhodes is a senior who was lightly used through much of the season, seeing more than 10 minutes in just four games before Jan. 31. His role increased down the stretch with an injury to starting point guard Juwan McCloud, and he moved into the starting lineup five games ago.
In this one he posted season highs with 14 points, six rebounds and four assists. Running the point, he led Northern Iowa’s very deliberate halfcourt offense, took advantage of opportunities to run when they were presented, and even knocked down some big shots at the end of the clock.
“His leadership and communication have made a big difference for us,” said Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson. “What he’s done in transition with our offense, having his eyes up and throwing that ball up ahead. So the ball’s moved pretty well, and he’s got a really good sense for when to push it in transition and when to take a look over and see what we want to run.
“As much as his play, he’s made shots for us and he’s a good three-point shooter. He’s comfortable shooting that pull-up. That’s why we put him in a lot of those isolation spots tonight at the top of the floor because he’s comfortable doing that.”
“I’m just going out there and being as confident as I can,” said Rhodes after the game. “Coach trusts me, and I’m just going out there to play my hardest every day. That’s all I can do when I’m out on the court.”
For Missouri State against Valpo, the story was Alize Johnson. One of the most talented and unique players in the conference, Johnson finished with 22 points, 19 rebounds and six assists, his boardwork in particular keying a 45-29 rebounding advantage for the Bears that was a big difference in the game.
Johnson is a 6-foot-9 double-double machine, but his skills scream those of a guard. As good of a rebounder as he is, he’s not a huge defensive presence inside (just 13 blocked shots all season), even as he can play in the post offensively. What he will do, though, is regularly take the ball and go in transition after grabbing defensive rebounds.
Johnson’s six assists were no accident; his work leading the break at times was superb, as was the shooting of teammate Jarrid Rhodes, who scored 20 points and hit four three-pointers. And it’s the help of players like Rhodes that MSU is going to need if it’s to keep playing in St. Louis.
It’s been no secret that this has been a disappointing season for Missouri State, the preseason favorites in the Valley who got off to a 15-5 start before losing nine of their last 11 down the stretch, some in simply bizarre fashion. There have been plenty of questions about Lusk’s future as coach, but this is also the last go-round for five Bears seniors who still have a chance to rewrite their story this season.
“My time is running down for me and Jarrid here,” said Johnson after the game. “When you’re a senior, I think you’re just so determined to go out with a bang. We had some bumps this year, and we have the opportunity right now, and we want to take it to our full advantage.”
Missouri State’s opponent in the quarterfinals is Southern Illinois, a team the Bears lost to twice this season. The margin in those two games though? The Salukis won by two at MSU, then by a single point in overtime at SIU in their most recent meeting on Valentine’s Day.
As for Northern Iowa’s chances against Loyola, it’s become a well-worn tradition in the MVC Tournament that winners of Thursday night’s 8/9 game give the top seed a good game the next day, at least for a time. Usually it’s not until getting into the second half when the regular season champs gain control as the underdog wilts, perhaps feeling the effects of playing less than 20 hours earlier.
The Panthers are capable of even more than that. They did lose twice to Loyola this season, including by 23 points in their last meeting in Chicago, and their offense has been hot and cold this year, often going as the play of seniors Koch and Carlson goe. This is a team with some postseason experience, though, and both seniors were major players on the 2016 MVC tourney champions that went on to defeat Texas in the NCAA Tournament.
“It’s going to take a great defensive effort, we know that,” said Jacobson. “Also we need to have a little bounce in our step on offense like we did tonight, get that ball moving up and down the floor. We have great players. We’ve just got to have a little bounce in our step and get that ball moving on offense.”
