So many thought it might never happen, myself included. There were a few close calls, but for some good reasons, it was hard to imagine a No. 16 seed ever knocking off a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
And now that it has happened, it is as shocking as one might imagine. There are so many things about UMBC’s 74-54 win over Virginia that are historical and unbelievable.
First, though, the background. We have seen No. 15 seeds win games – it’s happened four times just in the past ten years – and Florida Gulf Coast even made the Sweet 16 back in 2013. But No. 16 seeds were often a little different when they go up against No. 1 seeds. Nowadays, two of the No. 1 seeds play a No. 16 seed that had to win a play-in game. Also, it hasn’t been uncommon for those seeds to be taken by teams that didn’t exactly contend for the regular season title in their conference, or even to have a losing record. In other words, there’s often a wider gulf between No. 15 and 16 than between No. 14 and 15.
Given that, and what often feels like a widening gap between the haves and have-nots in college basketball, especially with the NCAA Tournament, you can understand why some might have felt like it might never happen.
UMBC shocked the world. Jim Nantz called it the greatest upset in the history of the NCAA Tournament on the TV broadcast, a sentiment echoed by Grant Hill (a guy who played in a few of them in his day), and I’m not inclined to disagree. Where this ranks among upsets in all of sports history will be a fun point to be debated, at another time of course.
For starters, UMBC did this against the unquestioned top team in the country. Virginia won the ACC regular season title by four games and set a new ACC record for conference wins in a season with 17 (add in the ACC Tournament, and they had 20). They lost just twice from November to mid-March. They quietly dominated, doing all of this without a whole lot of fanfare. Yes, the Cavaliers were without De’Andre Hunter, a key reserve who was the ACC’s Sixth Man of the Year and will be an All-ACC player in the future, but they still had plenty with which to win.
They didn’t beat a team that backed into a No. 1 seed. They beat the best team. And while UMBC was not the worst of the No. 16 seeds – they’re a pretty good team that came in with 24 wins on the season – they didn’t win the regular season title in their conference and had to go on the road to get here. There, they beat a Vermont team that basically dominated America East the last two years. And before that two-year stretch of Vermont’s dominance, UMBC changed coaches as they had struggled mightily after winning the conference championship in 2009.
Then there is the fact that this game did not come down to the end. The outcome was not in doubt by the last media timeout. This was not a buzzer-beater; it was a blowout. The final score is not even indicative of the game, because it didn’t even feel like a 20-point game. The game was tied at halftime, and first round games between these seeds have been close at the half before, only to change entirely in the second half. Well, that actually happened. But in the past, it always changed with the top seed pulling away.
This time, it was the underdog that pulled away, as UMBC scored 53 points in the second half. Mind you, Virginia’s opponents on the season averaged 53 points for an entire game. The Cavaliers held 15 of 33 opponents below 53 points for an entire game on the season. UMBC shot nearly 68 percent from the floor in the second half against a team that allowed opponents to shoot 37.5 percent all year. Also, the Cavaliers guarded the three-point line incredibly well all year, holding opponents around 30 percent from deep, but UMBC was 12-24 from beyond the arc.
How heavy a favorite was Virginia in this one? I’ll let colleague Seth Davis give you an idea; take note of the time:
Virginia. Sharpie.
— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) March 17, 2018
UMBC shocked the world on Friday night. We will be talking about this one for quite some time.
NCAA Tournament Roundup
Before UMBC’s win, it looked like the story of the day was going to be what happened in San Diego in the afternoon. There, No. 13 Marshall held off No. 4 Wichita State 81-75, with the Shockers not playing well down the stretch. The Thundering Herd join Buffalo as No. 13 seeds to win this year. Also in San Diego, another No. 13 had a chance to pull it off, but No. 4 Auburn held off College of Charleston 62-58. Earlier in the day, No. 5 West Virginia beat No. 12 Murray State 85-68, and No. 5 Clemson closed out the night with a 79-68 win over No. 12 New Mexico State, a trendy upset pick.
The day in Charlotte began with No. 7 Texas A&M edging No. 10 Providence 73-69, then No. 2 North Carolina pulled away from No. 15 Lipscomb 84-66. Before the game of the night, No. 9 Kansas State took out No. 8 Creighton 69-59.
In Detroit, the day began with No. 2 Purdue taking care of No. 15 Cal State Fullerton 74-48, but they did not escape unscathed (more on that coming up), then No. 10 Butler jumped out on No. 7 Arkansas early and then closed out the Razorbacks 79-62. In the evening, No. 3 Michigan State held off No. 14 Bucknell 82-78, then No. 11 Syracuse pulled out a 57-52 win over No. 6 TCU.
Finally, we go to Nashville, where the action began with No. 2 Cincinnati wearing down No. 15 Georgia State 68-53 after the Panthers stayed with them for a while. No. 10 Texas then led No. 7 Nevada for a good while, including by nine at the half, before the Wolfpack rallied to send the game to overtime, where they ended up 87-83 winners. In the evening session, No. 1 Xavier cruised past No. 16 Texas Southern 102-83, and No. 9 Florida State took care of No. 8 Missouri 67-54.
Side Dishes
Speaking of Florida State, they didn’t win on Friday night without some concern. Terance Mann twice injured his groin during the game, and the second time he headed to the locker room and never returned. The junior was sounding optimistic about playing in their second round matchup with Xavier on Sunday.
Kansas expects to have big man Udoka Azubuike on Saturday, albeit for somewhat limited minutes. Head coach Bill Self liked what he saw enough that he could envision playing the sophomore for 15-20 minutes. He missed the Big 12 Tournament due to a left knee injury, then played just three minutes on Thursday in the Jayhawks’ win over Penn.
On the other hand, the career of Purdue big man Isaac Haas is over, as he suffered a fractured right elbow in Friday’s win over Cal State Fullerton. Haas fell on the elbow while going for a rebound, and though he stayed in the game X-rays later revealed the fracture.
The next head coach at Pittsburgh may be starting over more than we already have reason to believe. Part of the struggle this season was due to inexperience, but that might remain the case as seven Panthers have received their release to transfer should they so desire. This does not mean all of them will, but it opens up that possibility.
Tonight’s Menu
Second round action gets going today, and we will know half of the Sweet 16 teams by the end of the day.
- The day starts in Pittsburgh, where No. 9 Alabama takes on No. 1 Villanova (12:10 p.m.), then No. 7 Rhode Island takes on No. 2 Duke.
- Boise is the next site to get going, with No. 13 Buffalo battling No. 5 Kentucky (5:15 p.m) followed by a potential dandy as No. 5 Ohio State takes on No. 4 Gonzaga.
- Games in Dallas tip next, with No. 11 Loyola-Chicago taking on No. 3 Tennessee (6:10 p.m.), then No. 6 Florida plays No. 3 Texas Tech.
- Finally, games in Wichita get going, first with No. 8 Seton Hall playing No. 1 Kansas (7:10 p.m.) and the day closing with No. 6 Houston battling No. 3 Michigan.
- There is an NIT game on the slate with Penn State visiting Notre Dame (noon)
- The CIT also has a game on the slate, which is Portland State at San Diego (10 p.m.)
