Right after the national championship game, we took an early shot at a top 25 for next season. Anyone trying this knows that it is bound to be worth revising later on, as there are always changes in rosters at this time of the year, from late signees to transfers to coaching changes to early entrants to the NBA Draft.
Now, the dust has mostly settled with the passing of the deadline for players to withdraw from the NBA Draft and return to school, as well as a key transfer who was sure to swing a ranking or two. There will be another transfer or three that could shake things up, and there could always be a surprise coaching change or a player getting injured or in trouble with the law, but at this point we’re a lot closer to knowing what we need to know for next season.
So with that, here’s one crack at a top 25 for next season that is still too early, but a little more interesting since we know a lot more now.
1. Kansas
Until someone knocks off the Jayhawks in the Big 12, you pick against them at your peril, and next year’s team should be better than just the best of the Big 12. They will have to replace the heart and soul of the team for the second year in a row, but Bill Self knows how to get the most out of a team and Udoka Azubuike came back to school. The Lawson brothers (Dedric and K.J.) become eligible and will make a big impact right away, as will Cal transfer Charlie Moore, and three McDonald’s All-Americans come in to ensure the Jayhawks will have lots of talent. If LaGerald Vick returns – and that is far from a given at this point – they get even better.
2. Duke
Don’t expect much to change. The Blue Devils will regroup once more with an elite group of newcomers led by R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. There may be a question of who the veteran leaders will be, although Marques Bolden and Javin DeLaurier return, but there is no doubting the talent on this team.
3. Tennessee
The Volunteers are primed for a big year in 2018-19. Grant Williams will anchor this team as one of the SEC’s best players alongside Admiral Schofield, who returned to school after testing the NBA Draft waters, along with Lamonte Turner and Kyle Alexander. The big question is how they will deal with being on everyone’s radar from the outset. They should be the favorites in an SEC that will be loaded once again.
4. Virginia
Yes, the Cavaliers made some pretty bad history a couple of weeks ago, but let’s not get carried away with what that means going forward. This is a team that still returns a great deal, notably their starting backcourt and De’Andre Hunter, who got better as the season went along and will be an All-ACC player sooner rather than later. While Devon Hall, Isaiah Wilkins and Nigel Johnson will all be missed, there’s enough returning and who know how to play the way Tony Bennett wants them to play that we can expect to be better in all areas to keep this team as one of the best in the ACC.
5. Michigan State
The Spartans’ reload looks even better now that Nick Ward is coming back to school. The Spartans’ main returning talent is on the perimeter with Cassius Winston, Joshua Langford and Matt McQuaid, and if you’re going to have most of it be in one place, the perimeter a good one in college basketball. They will miss Tum Tum Nairn, especially from an intangibles standpoint, but the Spartans will be deep enough on the perimeter that freshman Foster Loyer won’t be handed minutes right away. With a good class of freshmen to add depth, the Spartans will be favored in the Big Ten once again starting with the strength of their perimeter unit.
6. Kentucky
The knowns and unknowns with Kentucky are nothing new. We know they will have plenty of talent, and young talent at that. E.J. Montgomery leads the way there, along with Immanuel Quickley and Keldon Johnson, and now Ashton Hagans as he is re-classifying up from the class of 2019. The unknown remains a seemingly age-old question with John Calipari there: where will the veteran leadership come from? Will it be graduate transfer Reid Travis, their most experienced player albeit not in Lexington? He has the capability, and maybe the fact that a lot of other players will be new will mitigate the fact that he is a newcomer to the team. P.J. Washington could also provide some of that, especially now that Wenyen Gabriel is gone. The Wildcats of 2017-18 were more up-and-down than usual, but this team should be more consistent and better.
7. Nevada
Eric Musselman is building something really good in Reno, and next year could be a special year. The Martin twins and Jordan Caroline all return after testing the NBA Draft waters, and that’s a tough trio for anyone in the Mountain West to match. Add the return of Lindsey Drew and Josh Hall, along with talented big man Jordan Brown and another group of transfers, and they will be the team to beat there again.
8. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs regrouped nicely last season after fairly heavy personnel losses from the year before, but this team could really go far since Rui Hachimura and Killian Tille will be back. They lose Johnathan Williams and Silas Melson, two big pieces, but Josh Perkins emerged in a new role, Zach Norvell Jr. will become a go-to guy, Hachimura got better as the season went along and Tillie gives them more size and skill up front. San Jose State transfer Brandon Clarke will be eligible and should help right away in a deep frontcourt. It will be another year, another NCAA Tournament appearance and then some for Gonzaga.
9. Auburn
The Tigers made out well at the NBA Draft deadline, as the only player they ended up losing was Mustapha Heron. While he is not a trivial loss, the Tigers bring back almost everyone else of consequence and will have everyone eligible next season, so they will be right there among the favorites in an SEC that should be crowded and very competitive again.
10. Villanova
The Wildcats have been on an amazing run of late, and there will be changes with the departures of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo and Omari Spellman. They are primed for a drop from grace, but not a tumble. Phil Booth and Eric Paschall are a great place to start, and Albany graduate transfer Joe Cremo will help as a proven Division I player. Jermaine Samuels was a highly-recruited player out of high school who missed crucial time with an injury and should get a bigger role, and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree can get better as well. Without question, though, they will need to get more from freshmen like Jahvon Quinerly, Cole Swider and Brandon Slater than they originally thought. They will still be the pick to rule the Big East, especially since most teams behind them lose a lot as well, but at first glance a Final Four run seems like a long shot.
11. West Virginia
The Mountaineers lose a lot with seniors Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles moving on, but Bob Huggins simply reloads and this team will be no different. They have Esa Ahmad, Sagaba Konate (who can take over a game as a post presence) and a number of other good pieces that will make them more than competitive with the way Huggins’ teams play. Freshman Derek Culver will be a nice presence in the low post as well.
12. North Carolina
The Tar Heels got Luke Maye back, and that’s a big deal. But they will miss Joel Berry II and Theo Pinson quite a bit, as along with Maye they carried the Tar Heels in 2017-18. Also back are Kenny Williams and Cameron Johnson, but the Tar Heels were not all that deep last season and now have questions on the all-important perimeter. The Tar Heels will really need newcomers like McDonald’s All-American MVP Nassir Little and Coby White to make an impact right away, and other holdovers like Garrison Brooks and Sterling Manley to jump into bigger roles.
13. Florida
With Jalen Hudson returning, the Gators will be pretty good once again. They will miss Chris Chiozza, the heart and soul of the team, as well as Egor Koulechov, but this was a deep team with Hudson, KeVaughn Allen, Keith Stone and Kevarrius Hayes all returning, and they add more pieces. If John Egbunu makes it back from his ACL injury, the Gators will get a further boost up front, which they could use as they were last in the SEC in rebounding margin.
14. Virginia Tech
Buzz Williams has it going in Blacksburg, and next year’s team should be even better with Justin Bibbs being the best of the departures – a good, but not irreplaceable, player. Justin Robinson is an underrated floor leader, Chris Clarke could step into a starting role and Kerry Blackshear and Ahmed Hill will be key veterans. Nickeil Alexander-Walker showed promise as a freshman and should be better with a year under his belt.
15. Kansas State
The Wildcats made a run to the Elite Eight that probably few outside of Manhattan saw coming, but next year they won’t sneak up on anyone as they return everyone of consequence. Barry Brown and Dean Wade lead the way, while Xavier Sneed, Makol Mawien, Kamau Stokes and Carter Diarra all return as well for what will be one of the most experienced teams in the Big 12.
16. Oregon
The Ducks couldn’t quite keep the run of NCAA Tournament appearances going, but they weren’t that far off. They return key pieces from this team, led by Payton Pritchard, Kenny Wooten and Paul White, and welcome one of the nation’s best recruiting classes for an immediate boost.
17. UCLA
It’s easy to think of what might have been had Aaron Holiday opted to come back, but even without him, UCLA could be very good next year. They didn’t lose anyone else early, which means they have Kris Wilkes, Jaylen Hands and Prince Ali back, and Cody Riley should play after sitting this season. The Bruins again bring in good recruits who should help right away, led by Moses Brown, Shareef O’Neal and Jules Bernard.
18. Mississippi State
Ben Howland has gotten this program going again, and next year could be the year. The only senior played in just eight games this year, and they begin with the solid foursome of Quinndary and Nick Weatherspoon, Aric Holman and Lamar Peters. Holman and Abdul Ado lead the interior on a team that led the SEC in blocked shots, and they will be boosted by freshman Reggie Perry. Another good freshman talent, Robert Woodard II, will add depth. While the Bulldogs’ season didn’t end well, they showed a lot of promise and making the run to New York will only help.
19. Florida State
Last year was supposed to be a step back for the Seminoles, but they made an Elite Eight run. Do you bet against them again? They lose a couple of seniors plus C.J. Walker, who transferred to Ohio State, but they bring back Terance Mann and Trent Forrest to lead a relatively unheralded but solid core. Phil Cofer was also granted another season of eligibility, and David Nichols comes in as a graduate transfer from Albany. One thing you can usually count on with Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles in recent years is that they will have a lot of length for opponents to deal with.
20. Michigan
Charles Matthews returns, and he found a home in Ann Arbor, and add him to Zavier Simpson, Jordan Poole, Isaiah Livers and Jon Teske and there’s still a lot here to go with a five-man recruiting class led by forward Ignas Brazdeikis. Matthews will be the go-to guy, and John Beilein knows how to coach, in case anyone has forgotten.
21. Syracuse
Quiet as it’s been kept, with Tyus Battle opting to return to school, Syracuse will return almost all of its scoring from last season. On a team where offense is always the big question, that cannot be underestimated, and he’ll be joined by Oshae Brissett and Frank Howard as the mainstays. The 2-3 zone will continue to baffle teams, as we saw in the NCAA Tournament, but with more scoring there is every reason to think the Orange will be a bit safer come Selection Sunday this time around.
22. Clemson
Marcquise Reed and Shelton Mitchell are back, which gives the Tigers a solid backcourt to start with. Javan White comes in as a graduate transfer from Oral Roberts to help up front. Elijah Thomas is a solid presence and will anchor the frontcourt. There should be enough production back for this team to be a solid NCAA Tournament team if they can repeat their work at the defensive end.
23. LSU
The Tigers were a pleasant surprise in Will Wade’s first season, and with Tremont Waters back and a solid cast of recruits, they won’t sneak up on anyone this time around. Skylar Mays is another holdover who will be a key, but watch newcomers like Nazreon Reid, Emmitt Williams and Ja’Vonte Smart as they should all play right away. The Tigers made the NIT this season, but will likely do a little better in Year Two under Wade.
24. Alabama
The Crimson Tide will miss Collin Sexton, but they return just about everyone else of consequence and will be a year older. John Petty was a solid running mate for Sexton last year and won’t be overshadowed by him now, while Texas transfer Tevin Mack becomes eligible and Dazon Ingram and Herbert Jones also return on the perimeter. Donta Hall will offer rim protection up front, and Daniel Giddens returns and remains a fine example of a “potential” player given his length and athleticism. Avery Johnson is building them up, and while the Crimson Tide were inconsistent in 2017-18, that may be one thing they can shed with an older team.
25. Butler
The Bulldogs might be the best pick in a crowded Big East after Villanova, as all of the top teams lose at least one player of consequence and most lose more than one. The Bulldogs will miss Kelan Martin, but Kamar Baldwin will step right into the starring role, and they have just about everyone else back. Also returning is Paul Jorgensen, while Aaron Thompson did a solid job of running the show as a freshman and Nate Folwer also returns up front. Duke transfer Jordan Tucker will be eligible in December and should help right away among the newcomers.
Five more who were heavily considered: Buffalo, NC State, TCU, Marquette, Iowa State
