2017-18 Conference USA Post-Mortem

Conference USA was a much-improved league in the 2017-18 season. Many in college basketball noticed this. Unfortunately, the ones whose opinion mattered most in March did not.

The plight faced by leagues like Conference USA-almost every single conference outside the TV-approved top 6-7 leagues, in fact-was once again reinforced this March. C-USA made one of the biggest rises in the country in 2017-18. It jumped from an unacceptable 23rd in the conference RPI rankings last year up to 14th. It would finish with seven teams winning at least 20 games.

The league also had some legitimate headline teams, Middle Tennessee State had worked its way into becoming something of a national name after back-to-back years with impressive wins in the NCAA Tournament, and Western Kentucky under Rick Stansbury quickly built a program capable of beating anyone, as shown by a win over Purdue in November. Marshall has gained a following with its three-point heavy offense.

Many were taking note of C-USA’s improvement in January already, predicting that the league had a very good shot at two bids in the NCAA Tournament. Apparently the NCAA Tournament selection committee was not among them. Supposedly more informed than all those on the outside, committee members gave Conference USA the third-class treatment again in March, giving the league just one berth in the tourney, with conference tourney champion Marshall pegged a 13 seed.

Regular season champion Middle Tennessee State-good enough to be in the national rankings just a few weeks before Selection Sunday-was not even among the final four teams left out. Yet a Baylor team that went 17-14 against Division I teams was, as was a Notre Dame team that was essentially allowed to write off 15 games of its season because its best player was injured.

Western Kentucky wasn’t even close to an at-large bid, even after posting a 24 wins. Even outside the NCAA tourney, Old Dominion couldn’t get into the NIT with a 25-7 mark, while that tourney was littered with 13-, 14- and 15- loss teams.

The lack of respect for the league might’ve been understandable for a time. It is true C-USA’s conference RPI declined each of the last five years before this one, plummeting from 11th in 2012-13 all the way to No. 23 last year. Still, the league had posted three consecutive first round wins in the NCAAs from seeds of 14, 15 and 12, the last two years with way-underseeded Middle Tennessee teams. And sure enough, it turned the feat yet again, as Marshall plundered Wichita State in the first round this year to make Conference USA 4-for-4 in the first round over the past four years.

If one is an accident, two is a coincidence and three is a pattern, inquiring minds want to know from the Selection Committee what four is? The old fallback about history not mattering starts to ring hollow when a league repeatedly outperforms expectations.

Besides that, Western Kentucky also won on the road twice and in all defeated three BCS schools to get to the NIT semifinals. Middle Tennessee State made it to the NIT second round, even after being snubbed by the NCAA tourney and with rumors swirling that its coach was on his way out. And North Texas recovered from a late season spin with seven losses in eight games-six of them by six points or less or in overtime-to win the College Basketball Invitational.

A pragmatic view of Conference USA is that the league still has a lot of work to do, especially at the bottom, but its top teams deserve to be recognized in that tier of the best from leagues like the American, Atlantic 10 or Mountain West. This is an NCAA Division I-A football conference (or Football Bowl Subdivision, if you will), and also one filled with schools who sometime in the recent past have had major basketball success.

Programs like Alabama-Birmingham, Louisiana Tech, UNC Charlotte and Texas-El Paso all had seasons ranging from disappointing (La Tech, UAB) to flat-out rock bottom (Charlotte). If the top teams in the league could maintain their level while more of the rest pull themselves up too, there’s no reason why C-USA can’t be a fringe top-10 conference. Maybe even one that starts to get some respect from the Selection Committee.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
Taking a shot in the dark at creating some buzz, or perhaps just trying something wild with a tournament that has meandered around the country and often played to light crowds, Conference USA moved its men’s and women’s basketball championships to Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas. The 12,000-seat multi-purpose indoor stadium facility is best known as the practice facility for the Dallas Cowboys, but for four days it hosted the men’s and women’s hoops tourneys played on back-to-back courts inside the same arena, separated only by a curtain.

The story of the first two days of the tourney was Southern Mississippi, which as the 9 seed stunned top seed Middle Tennessee State 71-68 in overtime in the quarterfinals. Cortez Edwards scored 23 points and the Golden Eagles hit 13 of 25 three-point attempts, while the Blue Raiders stumbled in overtime for a costly loss after fighting back from a seven-point deficit late. Incidentally, Southern Miss almost didn’t even get a shot at MTSU as it blew all of a 15-point second half lead in its first round game against No. 8 Florida International before holding on for a 69-68 win, as Edwards scored 29 points.

The other slight surprise in the first round was No. 10 Louisiana Tech upending 7 seed North Texas 68-62, but Tech would be knocked out in the quarterfinals with No. 2 Old Dominion eking out a 62-58 win in a game that was tied with just over a minute left. Also advancing were No. 4 Marshall (95-81 over 5 seed Texas-San Antonio) and No. 3 Western Kentucky, which blew out 6 seed UAB 98-70.

Marshall took control of its semifinal against Southern Miss early, drilling nine three-pointers in the first half and eliminating the Golden Eagles 85-75. The second semi was a grinder with a pair of heavily inside-oriented squads in Western Kentucky and Old Dominion, and WKU’s Justin Johnson was the difference with 19 points, 13 rebounds and two huge three-pointer lates in the Hilltoppers’ 57-49 win.

The final matched Marshall’s three-point heavy offense against Western Kentucky’s barely any threes play. The Thundering Herd won out, draining 12 triples led by Jon Elmore’s 27 points and seven threes. Elmore scored 20 and hit six from long range in the second half as Marshall pulled ahead by 12 points, but the Toppers still made a run late with 11 straight points late to get within one. Western had two chances in the final 20 seconds to go ahead but came up empty and the Thundering Herd wrapped up their first NCAA tourney bid in 31 years with a 67-66 win.

Postseason Awards
Player of the Year: Nick King, F, Sr., Middle Tennessee State
Defensive Player of the Year: Ajdin Penava, F, Jr., Marshall
Freshman of the Year: Jhivvan Jackson, G, Texas-San Antonio
Newcomer of the Year: Nick King, F, Sr., Middle Tennessee State
Sixth Man of the Year: Deon Lyle, G, Jr., Texas San-Antonio
Coach of the Year: Steve Henson, Texas-San Antonio

All-Conference Team
Ahmad Caver, G, Jr., Old Dominion
Chris Cokley, F, Sr., UAB
Jon Elmore, G, Jr., Marshall
Justin Johnson, F, Sr., Western Kentucky
Nick King, F, Sr., Middle Tennessee State

Season Highlights

• Conference USA won a game in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight year as Marshall topped Wichita State in the first round. C-USA is the first conference ever to win a game in the tourney four straight years from a seed of 12th or lower.
• Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky both won games in the NIT, and WKU advanced all the way to the semifinals in New York City. It was the Hilltoppers’ first trip to the NIT semis since 1954.
• North Texas won the College Basketball Invitational, defeating San Francisco in the best-of-three title series. Also, Texas-San Antonio advanced to the quarterfinals in the CollegeInsider.com Tournament.
• Middle Tennessee State made its first-ever appearance in the Associated Press Top 25 Poll, hanging in the poll for two weeks late in the season.
• Conference USA players were all over the top of the NCAA’s national statistics. Marshall’s Ajdin Penava led the country in blocked shots and blocks per game, helping the Herd to finish fifth nationally as a team in blocks. Teammate Jon Elmore also led Division I with two triple-doubles and was third in minutes per game, free throw attempts and freebies made and fifth in total points. North Texas guard Roosevelt Smart also led the country in three-pointers attempted and was third in threes made, while Florida International’s Brian Beard was fifth in steals.

What we expected, and it happened: Of Middle Tennessee State last year at this time, we said, quote, “even if they can’t duplicate their massive success of (2016-17), it’s not hard at all to envision the Blue Raiders winning 23, 24 games again and getting to the NCAAs.” We were right about the first part (24 wins in the regular season), and should’ve been about the second part too. Also, Western Kentucky proved to be well worth the preseason hype and even without Mitchell Robinson, as a team with a thin roster won 27 games and made the NIT semifinals.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: We thought Louisiana Tech had arrived as a consistent contender in C-USA, but the Bulldogs backslid to a tie for ninth. Injuries and the midseason defection of No. 2 scorer Jalen Harris undoubtedly played a significant part in Tech’s struggles, and Jacobi Boykins was the only Bulldog to start every game-in fact, the only to start more than 20 games.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: We knew Marshall and Texas-San Antonio were teams to keep an eye on, but both were even better than we expected. On a more micro level, who on the planet would’ve expected UTSA to more than double its number of made three-pointers (from 172 to 353), rising a whopping 310 spots (from 326th to 16th) nationally in made triples?

Teams on the rise: North Texas, Texas-San Antonio. Grant McCasland has proven to be a rising star among coaches. He first turned around Arkansas State quickly in just one year, and then did similar work with the Mean Green last year, with a record that could’ve been even quite a bit better if UNT had won a few of the 11 games it lost by seven points or less or in overtime. Former Lon Kruger player/assistant Steve Henson also has done a superb job at UTSA, and the Roadrunners bring back a very experienced team that could challenge for the conference title.

Team on the decline: Texas-El Paso. Tim Floyd’s time with the Miners started off well, but UTEP never had the type of success it appeared might be possible at first when he made his highly anticipated return. After two a two-year slide, the program is now in rebuilding mode, though getting coach Rodney Terry from Fresno State was a nice find.

2018-19 Conference USA Outlook
The penalty of the NCAA Selection Committee overlooking Conference USA is one that has greater consequences than just on Selection Sunday. After winning 24+ games in six of the last seven seasons, Kermit Davis decided to join them rather than keep trying to beat them as he left Middle Tennessee State for Mississippi. A number of other conference schools were affected in some way or another by transfers, something that almost certainly wouldn’t happen as much if the league was perceived as higher on the food chain.

Even after a year with so many plusses, next year includes quite a bit of uncertainty for Conference USA. One thing that appears to be a certainty already is that Rick Stansbury is going to have talent at Western Kentucky, and he’s a better coach at blending it than he gets credit for, too. The Hilltoppers should be solidly in the mix, but so will some others. Texas-San Antonio in particular will be a very enticing pick to make a charge, with four starters slated to be back, including exciting guard Jhivvan Jackson. Marshall also will have four starters back, but the loss of very important big man Ajdin Penava clouds the Herd’s outlook some.

Middle Tennessee State was going to be in a transition period after losing Davis, four key seniors (including league POY Nick King plus the seemingly eternal Blue Raider Giddy Potts) as well as its entire recruiting class. MTSU did still will have the makings of a nice backcourt until a mass exodus in June that now leaves the team decimated. New coach Nick McDevitt did an outstanding job at UNC Asheville, but the Blue Raiders are now the equivalent of an expansion team, an entirely different team than the last one under Davis.

Old Dominion is another team that could challenge, though transfers have hurt the Monarchs’ depth. Expect Louisiana Tech to be better after a rash of injuries torpedoed a promising season a year ago. UAB is another team that was struck by transfers. Coach Rob Ehsan is regarded as having recruited well, but the Blazers were somewhat disappointing with veteran teams the last two years. North Texas can’t be counted out, either, and it will be worth watching to see how quickly new coaches get things going at places like UTEP and Charlotte.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam