2017-18 Horizon League Post-Mortem

There’s no getting around it: these are dark times right now for the Horizon League. And the 2017-18 season may have been rock bottom.

Supporters of the league can only hope as much. Once a league that was regularly in the top half of conferences in NCAA Division I, the Horizon League plummeted down the conference rankings, all the way to 26th of 32 conferences in the NCAA’s RPI rankings. It was easily the worst mark in league history, and one for which there is no shortage of events that have led to this point.

Conference shuffling obviously has weathered the league some. Butler’s departure several years back and Valparaiso’s last year were both noted blows, and also lost in the commotion of Loyola Chicago’s fantastic Final Four run was that the Ramblers not that long ago were a part of the Horizon, too.

Coaching turnover has hammered the league. Other than Greg Kampe at Oakland (which itself joined the Horizon just in 2013), not a single coach has been in the Horizon longer than three years. The addition of IUPUI this past summer saw coach Jason Gardner automatically become the league’s second-longest tenured coach: he has been with the Jaguars for four years.

Even worse, it’s clear the conference-much like the Northeast Conference to its east-has picked up a reputation as a steppingstone league to recruits. Transferitis essentially plunged a good Cleveland State program into a complete rebuild, and the two Wisconsin schools-Green Bay and Milwaukee-have been sent almost to the same stage.

Even this year’s regular season champion-Northern Kentucky, which has been a tremendous find for the Horizon-already saw two key players take off shortly after a very successful season. Add in a conference tournament that has been mayhem, making it hard for any school to sustain year-to-year momentum, and it can feel like the bright spots are few for this league.

There were some. Wright State’s hire of Scott Nagy has quickly proven to be one of the most astute of any school in the last couple years. The Raiders won 25 games-including at Georgia Tech in December- were in the title chase all year, and then won the Horizon tourney for their first NCAA bid in 11 years. Northern Kentucky also continued its quick ascent, winning its first Horizon title in just its third year in the league, and made its first-ever NIT appearance.

Milwaukee handled Loyola Chicago in the regular season and blew out Iowa State on the road. And Illinois-Chicago overcame a bad November and December, turning the page to the new year and winning 15 of its final 21, getting all the way to the CollegeInsider.com Tournament final.

Those were positives. The Horizon League just needs a whole lot more of them right now.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
Much as so many of us enjoy the disarray that is busted brackets in March, it’s hard to argue that the Horizon League could use a little less of it of late. We are now up to eight times in the last 14 years where the top seed has not won the conference tourney. The move to a neutral site tourney in Detroit three years ago seems to have only increased the amount of upsets, as for the third straight year the Horizon League tourney featured mass chaos. The top seed has been eliminated in its first game each of those years, and the move away from a previously used double-bye format that was supposed to protect higher seeds (but often didn’t) in favor of a more traditional tourney bracket also hasn’t helped.

The carnage didn’t quite match last year’s, when the semifinals featured teams seeded 4, 6, 9 and 10. This year’s semis merely included even numbers-only: seeds 2, 4, 6 and 8. Top-seeded Northern Kentucky was knocked out in the quarterfinals by No. 8 Cleveland State-which had to sweat out a 72-71 win over Youngstown State in the first round just to get to the quarters. CSU’s 89-80 win over the Norse was one of two quarterfinal surprises, as No. 3 UIC-which had been rolling late in conference play and was a chic tourney favorite-was stung by sixth-seeded UW-Milwaukee 80-75.

The other two quarterfinals saw 2 seed Wright State ease past No. 7 UW-Green Bay 87-72, the Phoenix dropping out one round after a 93-81 win over Detroit Mercy in the 7/10 game. Fourth-seeded Oakland also topped No. 5 IUPUI 62-55, and the draw suggested the Golden Grizzlies were set up for a run at the title.

Wrong. Cleveland State was not done yet. The Vikings buckled down defensively and got a leaner by freshman Tyree Appleby with 32 seconds left, then stopped Oakland twice in the final seconds for a tense 44-43 semifinal win. Wright State then prevailed in the second semi, a 59-53 winner over Milwaukee in another grinder where Loudon Love’s 18 points and 12 boards were the difference.

Cleveland State’s run was a terrific story, but the Vikings finally faded in the championship game. CSU led early, but Wright State took an eight-point halftime lead and then pulled away in the final 10 minutes for a 74-57 win.

Postseason Awards
Player of the Year: Kendrick Nunn, G, Sr., Oakland
Defensive Player of the Year: Tai Odiase, C, Sr., UIC
Freshman of the Year: Loudon Love, C, Wright State
Sixth Man of the Year: Godwin Boahen, G, So., UIC
Coach of the Year: Scott Nagy, Wright State

All-Conference Team
Grant Benzinger, G, Sr., Wright State
Jalen Hayes, F, Sr., Oakland
Drew McDonald, F, Jr., Northern Kentucky
Kendrick Nunn, G, Sr., Oakland
Khalil Small, G, Sr., UW-Green Bay

Season Highlights

• Wright State won the Horizon League Tournament for its first NCAA bid since 2007 and just its third since moving to NCAA Division I in 1987.
• Northern Kentucky won its first Horizon regular season title and appeared in the NIT for the first time in school history.
• UIC advanced all the way to the CollegeInsider.com Tournament title game, winning three games before falling to Northern Colorado in the tourney final.
• Oakland guard Kendrick Nunn ranked second in the country in scoring at 25.9 points per game and led the nation in three-pointers per game (4.5). Also, UIC as a team ranked second in the country in blocked shots per game (6.7) behind only Michigan State. The Flames were led by Tai Odiase, whose 3.1 bpg were fourth nationally.
• Wright State center Loudon Love was one of the most productive freshmen in the country, averaging nearly a double-double (12.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg).

What we expected, and it happened: Wright State under Scott Nagy has quickly emerged as one of the Horizon’s best teams, something that should’ve surprised few who know his history. Also, UIC continued its climb, shaking off a poor start due in part to some early injuries to heat up in league play, and then showing well in the College Insider Tournament.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: Most everyone expected Oakland to be among the heavyweights in the Horizon this year. Despite having high-scoring Kendrick Nunn, though, the Golden Grizzlies regressed defensively and were a disappointment, barely finishing above .500 in conference.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: We didn’t think things could get worse at Detroit Mercy after an 8-23 mark in 2016-17, one that at least included signs of growth in Horizon play. They did. On a more positive note, IUPUI was probably a little more competitive in the Horizon in its first year than some expected, including wins over Oakland and Wright State late in the season to tie for fifth.

Teams on the rise: Wright State, Illinois-Chicago. The Raiders have taken their share of transfer hits, too, but in just two years under Nagy already appear to be the Horizon’s sturdiest program. The Flames also may not have hit their ceiling yet, even after the loss of shot-swatting Tai Odiase inside plus his hard-working backup Clint Robinson. The Flames boast an extremely talented backcourt and jelled as the season went on.

Team on the decline: Detroit Mercy. Even if they haven’t won a regular season crown since 1999, the Titans have typically been a reliable contender in the Horizon, which makes this past year’s mess stick out even more. A bizarre year included a suspension of coach Bakari Alexander for reasons the school never revealed, and his eventual firing in March, while a team with some talent won just eight games and was one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

2018-19 Horizon Outlook
One would hope things can’t get any worse for the Horizon. For all the blows it has taken, this is still a league that as recently as 2012-13 was a top-12 conference in the country. Long-term, that should remain the league’s goal, but in the short-term, stability and improvement are worthy targets.

Wright State has all the looks of becoming a steady, yearly contender, and it will have a big leg up in fulfilling that if they get three more years of Loudon Love. The Raiders should be considered the favorite for now, even as the departure of sniper Grant Benzinger will be felt. Northern Kentucky also has a Loudon-like, skilled post man in Drew McDonald, who also is extremely versatile and can step out to shoot the three or pass it. John Brannen has done outstanding work with the Norse, and while UNK loses three starters and one of its top reserves, he’s earned the benefit of the doubt to believe the Norse will be among the top teams again.

UIC features a host of backcourt talent led by Tarkus Ferguson, Marcus Ottey and Godwin Boahen, played well from January on and certainly could make a run at the title, too, especially if it can cut down on its turnovers. Oakland will never be counted out as long as Greg Kampe is on the sidelines, but on paper this could be one of the Golden Grizzlies’ toughest seasons in years with the top five starters gone.

The outlook is cloudy at best for everyone else. Milwaukee was decimated by transfers. IUPUI also lost its only three double-figure scorers. Green Bay is still recovering from massive turnover the past couple years, though Linc Darner’s history suggests his team might be the one to bet on most if one is looking for a surprise.

Detroit has talent, but still didn’t have a coach in mid-May. Maybe Cleveland State will build on its Horizon tourney run and climb into the first division. Youngstown State will have considerable roster turnover-not surprising after Jerrod Calhoun’s first year-but found some keepers and has a solid recruiting class coming. The Penguins may be another year away from making a move.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam