Each year for four years now, we’ve enjoyed taking a wide view of the NCAA Division I hoops landscape to identify teams that we’re watching for the season.
We’ve done so again this year. In the spirit somewhat of others’ lists of national title contenders, hot “mid-major” teams or other, we again present a list of 20 teams we’re especially keeping an eye on this season.
The list is always intentionally open-ended. Some teams are national powers. Some are national sleepers. Some are teams we think are coming up in their conferences and could surprise. Some face pivotal seasons coming off significant success. Some we think are just fun to watch.
It’s an exercise we’ve enjoyed doing, to see where these teams’ seasons go. Sometimes we come out of it humbly feeling like we were ‘on’ a team ahead of others (Houston and Louisiana-Lafayette were a few last year). Other times we flop. But we think all of them and their respective success or failure will form their conference races and some of the national picture as well.
Presenting our 20 to watch for 2018-19:
Austin Peay: The Governors were one of the more pleasant surprises in the country last year, as former Frank Martin assistant Matt Figger took over and quickly formed the team in his (and his former boss’s) image. Peay denied all over the court on D, forced a ton of turnovers, played its collective tails off, and the reward was a rise from 11 wins to 19 and a third-place finish in the Ohio Valley. The team also featured a freshman in Terry Taylor who was so good that he kept Murray State’s deservedly acclaimed Ja Morant from being OVC Freshman of the Year. This is a fun team to watch and should be in contention again in an OVC where Belmont and Murray State have to reload a bit.
Bradley: The Braves have been on a steady, step-by-step climb ever since Brian Wardle took over in 2014-15. This is his fourth year, and the rebuild of a proud program is right on schedule. Bradley brings back four starters, and experience often wins in the Missouri Valley Conference. Few teams are more intense defensively, the only question is if the Braves can score enough to graduate from very good to NCAA/NIT level. Darrell Brown is the top candidate to carry the offense, but he needs growth from those around him.
Denver: There’s no question that South Dakota State led by Mike Daum is the headliner and a heavy favorite in the Summit League this year. The Pioneers are getting closer, though. Denver ran some productive offense and rebounded well last year; the main thing keeping them from bigger things were way too many turnovers. Joe Rosga is a sniper, though, Ade Murkey is a do-it-all offensive guy from 15 feet and in, and grad transfers Ronnie Harrell from Creighton and Tory Stewart-Miller of Colorado bear watching on a team that has a good bit of size up front to replace the departed Daniel Amigo.
Grambling State: We happily include the Tigers of the Southwestern Athletic Conference on this list. Few understand just what a job coach Donte Jackson has done at the Louisiana school. Far more than just its stunning win at Georgia Tech, GSU last year won its first league title since 1989 and its 17 wins were the most for the school in 35 years. That came in a year where Grambling was ineligible for the NCAA tourney due to NCAA APR sanctions, and also after a stretch from 2011-16 when it won a combined 18 games, including a winless 2012-13 season. The Tigers are eligible for the NCAAs this year, have a possible SWAC player of the year in Ivy Smith, and could make their first-ever trip to the Big Dance.
Houston: The Cougars are the rare repeat on this list. Despite losing high-scoring guard Rob Gray and top frontcourt holdover Devin Davis, we think Kelvin Sampson’s team has some staying power. Three-point bombing Corey Davis-103 triples last year-can take on more scoring load, Galen Robinson is still one of the best pass-first point guards anywhere, and we think Fabian White is ready for a bigger role up front. Maybe the loss of Gray’s versatile all-around offensive game will be too much, but the Cougars defend and rebound superbly, and that shouldn’t change a bit.
Lehigh: The Mountain Hawks (it has been nearly 25 years, yet we still reflexively first think and prefer ‘Engineers’) finished last year strong, winning eight straight down the stretch before a Patriot League tournament semifinal loss. And in a league where rival Bucknell appears to be reloading, they’re as equipped as anyone to take advantage. Lehigh has great inside-outside balance, shot the three well last year and also converted nearly 78% from the foul line. Four-year backcourt star Kahron Ross will be missed, but Lance Tejada provides plenty of firepower to make up for it, and the Mountain Hawks should have a deep frontcourt that gives them a chance against most anyone even out of conference, where the schedule offers opportunities against teams like Kansas State, Miami (Fla.), Princeton, West Virginia and Yale.
Lipscomb: The Bisons (with an ‘s’) return six starters: five from last year, plus their point guard (Nathan Moran) from two years ago. How he meshes back in Casey Alexander’s go-go offense will be fascinating to watch because, prolific in scoring as it was last year, Lipscomb wasn’t a very good three-point shooting team-just 32.8%. Moran could provide an antidote to that and make this team even considerably more lethal. After years of being an NAIA power in the 1980s and 90s, Lipscomb made its first-ever NCAA Division I tourney appearance last year, and will be a heavy favorite in the Atlantic Sun.
Michigan: On paper, there’s not a lot to suggest the Wolverines are a top 25 team or anything more than a borderline NCAA Tournament squad, at best. Moritz Wagner is a huge loss, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson took quite a bit of scoring with them, too. John Beilein has essentially earned the Bo Ryan treatment at his program, though, where one should consider his teams will find a way to be terrific until proven otherwise. Moreover, Michigan turned into an excellent defensive team last year, and that may be its best hope with lots of size and length again throughout the roster. It is true the Wolverines missed the NCAAs in 2015 (and should’ve in 2016, too), so it’s not unfathomable that they could again.
Northeastern: It’s hard not to love the Huskies coming into this season. There’s experience (five returning starters), efficient offense (48.4% from the field including 302 three-pointers at 37.6% rate last year), star power (Vasa Pusica is the preseason Colonial Athletic Association player of the year) and size (big guards, plus three returnees of 6-foot-8 or bigger up front, as well as three more in the recruiting class). Bill Coen’s team also plays a great schedule, one loaded with opportunities to impress from early games against chic Ivy pick Harvard and Alabama to open the Charleston Classic to trips to Davidson and Syracuse. CAA matchups against College of Charleston also are must-see games this year: the two teams tied for the CAA regular season crown last year, but the Cougars won all three meetings of the two teams and also bring back plenty of talent, experience and toughness.
Pennsylvania: The Quakers tied for the Ivy regular season title last year, won the conference tourney, return four starters, and somehow have become an afterthought this year. Regular season co-champ Harvard is the trendy team with essentially six starters back (including Bryce Aiken, who missed last season), but Penn has plenty of talent, shot it better than the Crimson last year, and Steve Donahue’s team just knows how to play and execute. A.J. Brodeur is an outstanding frontcourt player on both ends, Ryan Betley is a scorer, and the Quakers were excellent on D last year, especially defending the three-point line.
Rider: When the Broncs surprised Penn State in December last year, many used it as a butt of jokes about both the Nittany Lions as well as power ratings that had Rider ranked well inside the top 100 at the end of the season, mainly under the rather lazy premise wondering how good a school called ‘Rider’ can be. We found out as the season went along that the Cranberry and White were good-co-champions in the Metro Atlantic-and make no mistake, Rider is a huge preseason favorite in the MAAC this year. Kevin Baggett’s team brings back five starters, nine of 10 from its rotation, and at least five could challenge for all-conference honors. Now if only they can win in the MAAC Tournament; the Broncs haven’t gotten past so much as the league tourney quarterfinals since 2011.
Saint Joseph’s: Every several years the Hawks rise up unexpectedly and have a huge season, and this could be another of them. Of course, the caveat to that is if SJU stays healthy, for the last two seasons have been affected significantly by injuries. If everyone stays healthy and Lamarr Kimble and Charlie Brown pick up where they left off, though, then there’s a lot of interesting pieces, from the talented returnees from injury to 6-foot-9 three-point shooters (Taylor Funk) to underrated rebounders (Pierfrancesco Oliva). The Hawks could stand to be more efficient offensively (just 42.3% from the field last year) but they did finish hot, winning seven of eight before a narrow Atlantic 10 tourney loss to Rhode Island. We also enjoy watching how Phil Martelli molds teams to the talent around them, as he is never averse to trying something different if his team’s skills suggest to do so.
San Diego: The seemingly eternal search continues for someone to unseat one of the West Coast Conference’s big three of Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and BYU (only San Francisco in 2013-14 has broken it in the last seven years). The Toreros are a lukewarm pick for that in some circles, and it’s understandable why the buzz over them isn’t greater, after a 9-9 WCC mark a year ago and chaos at the end of the season with coach Lamont Smith’s arrest and resignation. It’s easy to forget that for the first half of last season, USD looked like it might be a top 50 team, with wins over Colorado and New Mexico State and a stern challenge of Saint Mary’s on the road. The Toreros this year have four starters back, proven scorers including the Isaiahs Pineiro and Wright, defend the three-point line superbly, and last year’s taste of success and later stumbles might’ve been the experience needed before taking the program to another level.
Stephen F. Austin: If one is hunting for the next Butler-, Gonzaga- or Wichita State-type to go from obscurity to legit national contender, placing some chips on the Lumberjacks is a good choice. The Lumberjacks are talented again-Shannon Bogues is a pure scorer, Kevon Harris can fill it up too and T.J. Holyfield begins seemingly his eighth year as one of the Southland’s best frontcourt players on both ends. They’re deep, too, are recruiting well, play a distinct style with their frenetic denial defense forcing turnovers everywhere, and it’s clear this is a program that expects to win when it faces name brand competition. SFA defeated LSU last year, lost a hard-fought game at Missouri, and led Texas Tech much of the way before slipping late in the NCAA Tournament. This is a national-caliber program.
Toledo: Buffalo is a prohibitive favorite in the Mid-American Conference and Eastern Michigan appears to have captured the crown of chic-albeit distant-challenger to the Bulls. Tod Kowalczyk’s Rockets have a chance to be every bit as good as Buffalo, though. Kowalczyk is one of the better offensive coaches in the country, and this year’s team has all sorts of firepower, even with the loss of MAC Player of the Year Tre’Shaun Fletcher. Jaelan Sanford will challenge for POY honors this year, and watch for point guard Marreon Jackson to emerge after showing a propensity for hitting big shots last year as a freshman.
UC Irvine: The Big West has quietly become a competitive, enjoyable mid-level league to follow, and this year’s league race will be a dandy. Even with defending regular season champ UC Davis returning four starters (plus defending player of the year T.J. Shorts) and defending tourney champ Cal State Fullerton with four starters including a dynamic trio with Khalid Ahmad, Kyle Allman and Jackson Rowe, though, we’ll take the ultra-deep, ultra-tall Anteaters. UCI returns all five starters, is always long and always tough defensively, and the backcourt led by Evan Leonard and Eyassu Worku could challenge for the league’s best, too.
UNC Greensboro: The Spartans have become a personal favorite team to watch in recent years. Wes Miller’s team plays sticky defense that includes a regular three-quarters court zone press that wears out opponents. UNCG also has more size and athleticism up front than some might expect from a Southern Conference school, including shot-swatting James Dickey. There’s also a quality backcourt with depth led by terrific guard Francis Alonso. It would be no surprise if the Spartans are back in the NCAAs for the second straight year.
Virginia Tech: The Gobblers (Hokies) of VPI (Virginia Tech) are a fashionable top 25 team entering the season, and it’s fairly easy to see why with four starters back from an ACC team that has made two straight NCAA Tournaments. Four double-figure scorers returning led by the outstanding Justin Robinson, plus the coaching energy of Buzz Williams, also recommend this team well. Still, it’s hard to get by just how short the Hokies are. Kerry Blackshear may be one of the most important big guys in the country, because without him this team has one big donut in the middle. It will be fascinating to see if Tech can take it another step up this year, or if the teams of the last two years are just what the Hokies are.
Weber State: Like a number of teams on this list, the Wildcats are overshadowed by a titan in their league, in this case Montana which won the Big Sky regular season and tourney titles last year and returns four starters. Weber brings back four starters too, though, including Jerrick Harding, the latest in a growing line of scoring machines at the school that recently has included Damian Lillard and Jeremy Senglin. The Wildcats shoot it well from outside, have a formidable frontcourt, and way-underrated coach Randy Rahe also recruits exceptionally well. If the freshmen step up to provide quality depth behind an experienced top six, Weber State is very capable of taking back the Big Sky.
William & Mary: Tony Shaver’s Tribe deserve a perpetual spot on this list. No team is more fun to watch on an annual basis, and last year’s squad was an offensive buffet even more than normal as the first in NCAA history to shoot better than 50% from the field, 40% from three-point range and 80% from the line. There are no boring isolation plays or guards pounding the ball for 25 seconds with this team. Nathan Knight, Justin Pierce and Paul Rowley all are ultra-skilled big men and Matt Milon will provide the three-point bombing. Point guard is the major-league question mark, and along with defensive improvement will determine if the Tribe can go further than the usual top 4-5 team it is in the CAA.
Five more for honorable mention: Hartford, Illinois-Chicago, Saint Mary’s, TCU, UC Davis
Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam
