When the NCAA released the first edition of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (or ‘NET’), its replacement for the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), did a single soul honestly, really expect that the reaction to it would be: “Golly gee, what a splendid rank! Best thing ever!”
To steal the colorful words of the late college football coach Jim Wacker: “Fiddle, no.”
For one thing, it’s a ranking, and rankings breed arguments and complaining. And with much of our culture’s discourse now driven by social media, arguing and complaining have never had better homes to fester in.
The NET also has 2 1/2 immediate strikes against it for many because it is from the NCAA, a veritable punching bag in social media circles (and for a few high-profile sports commentators who know that taking jabs at it is good business for them). As if that’s not enough, the NET also attempts to use some of the efficiency numbers that have become so adored by some in the sport and by a very vocal segment of social media.
That the despised NCAA is daring to trod into Twitter followers’ sacred territory of advanced metric statistics should’ve been seen as a combustible mix from the start. To put in some terms of the season, the NCAA could’ve tossed the RPI into the garbage, boxed up a new power rank with a mix of everyone’s favorite mathematicians as a Christmas gift, and social media would’ve pitched a fit because they used the wrong brand of tape on the wrapping paper.
The NCAA did release its first initial NET ranking on Monday, and as anyone with a pulse could’ve predicted, it brought plenty of the proverbial social media outrage. Go figure.
The objections were for the reasons above, and also for the simple fact that early-season rankings have limited data, and thus are especially susceptible to producing head-scratching numbers. The NCAA probably should’ve waited a while to release the rankings, but apparently was eager to show off its enlightenment by way of a shiny new toy.
Regardless, it should’ve been established as most basic knowledge years ago by now: early-season power ratings are just about meaningless, and no one should get bent out of shape about them until we’re into at least late January. It’s pointless to stress about any ranking so early in the season; there’s no reason for rush to judgment.
There were some legitimate points made about the NET. Jerry Palm of CBS had a number of excellent ones, though the cynic could easily question whether members of a committee who famously guard their selection process are ever really interested in transparency. Palm and others also have pointed out that the NCAA’s supposed cap on margin of victory is a farce, when one of its main components is something that essentially replicates margin of victory.
And yet…isn’t the NCAA giving many exactly what they wanted? Didn’t they want a rating that encourages teams to run up scores, the way efficiency ratings have been doing for years now? And haven’t many of those people also been enthralled with the genius of so-called advanced metrics that also do not reveal their entire formulas? (and thus, in this opinion, have always made us question them more than apparently most do)
It’s quite possible the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee made a mistake the moment it tried to create a metric with more street cred, and that it should’ve stuck with the old RPI with a few tweaks. Contrary to the constant grousing on social media or by some college basketball media, the RPI-regardless of what one thought of its formula-never was as bad at measuring teams as some wanted to think.
Yes, it had outliers. Which made it absolutely no different from any other rating. Otherwise, the things it was most guilty of were 1) being old, 2) being from the NCAA and 3) not always matching every single person’s exact thinking.
Its simplicity was a positive, and some adjusting to put more weight on winning, less on schedule might’ve made more sense given that the committee has been clear in the past that it didn’t want margin of victory in its ratings. That’s a perfectly sensible view in a sport where margin at the end of games can be affected by a multitude of factors, and a three-point game with a minute left can quickly become 10 points because of free throw shooting.
The men’s basketball committee, which was urged on by the National Association of Basketball Coaches, among others, went against its former policy in approving the current NET formula. If it was for organic reasons, so be it. But if it was in reaction to social media outrage…we’ve seen over and over by now that overreacting to loud social media sentiments rarely works out, and usually is just empowering more outrage in the future.
By the way, for those who missed it yesterday and for those who care so early in the season, the first NET release had Ohio State at No. 1. There were a few early-season surprises (Loyola Marymount at No. 10; Radford at 22), otherwise the names near the top were pretty much the same as one will see in the RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, Haslametrics or any other ranking. Meaning that, at the end of the day, the ratings should be good for a little light debate, and little else. Which is really all they’re ever issued for at this time of year in the first place.
Side Dishes
- Gonzaga moved up to the No. 1 ranking in the national polls on Monday, squeezing past Kansas in both the Associated Press and USA Today polls. The Bulldogs are numero uno for the first time since 2017 and have now been in the top spot in three of the last seven seasons. The Zags celebrated by struggling with North Dakota State for a little bit before cruising to a 102-60 rout of the Bison.
- The biggest story on the court for the night also came out West, and late in the night, where Texas Southern did it again. Playing their sixth straight road game to start the season, the Tigers stunned 18th-ranked Oregon 89-84, coming back from a halftime deficit to score 57 in the second half. TSU also defeated Baylor on the road to open the season. Trayvon Reed scored 23 and made all nine of his field goals, and Jalyn Patterson neared a triple-double with 13 points, seven boards and 11 assists. That’s two great wins for the Tigers, who had eight days off since their last game and, if one wonders how much heavy travel can affect teams like this, lost their last game by 22 to Evansville. For the Ducks, Bol Bol scored 32 and added 11 rebounds, but even with that Oregon was out-rebounded by TSU 35-30. Wow.
- Nebraska got what may be a signature win, taking down Clemson 66-64 on the road. Emphasis on ‘may be.’ The Tigers have looked shaky early this year, not as strong as last year’s Sweet 16 outfit, and it’s possible in the mighty competitive ACC that they don’t end up as an NCAA Tournament squad. Regardless, it’s a solid road win for the Cornhuskers, who had James Palmer (20 points, nine rebounds) as the best player on the floor.
- Boston College came back to handle Minnesota 68-56, evening up the ACC/Big Ten Challenge after the first night. With the star backcourt of Ky Bowman and Jordan Chatman, it was the less-heralded Nik Popovic, Wynston Tabbs and Steffon Mitchell pacing the Eagles. Popovic scored a game-high 18 and shot 9-for-9 from the field, Tabbs totaled 17 plus five assists, and Mitchell added eight points, 13 rebounds and four assists. For the Gophers, icy shooting returned: just 29.2%, including 5 of 30 from three-point range. Yeesh.
- Wofford was close against North Carolina and at Oklahoma and lost a chance for a name-brand win at Stanford when the game was cancelled due to the California wildfires. The Terriers got one last night, though, pulling away from South Carolina for a decisive 81-61 win. This team is not just Fletcher Magee; Nathan Hoover scored 30 points and hit nine three-pointers, both career highs. The Southern Conference race this year with Wofford, UNC Greensboro, East Tennessee State and Furman-plus improving Citadel-is going to be some kind of fun.
- Alabama outlasted Murray State 78-72 at home, with Kira Lewis scoring 20. The Crimson Tide hit eight straight free throws in the final 25 seconds to finish this one off. The real story, though, was the Racers’ Ja Morant, who put on a show with 38 points, grabbed nine rebounds and added five assists in nearly willing MSU back from a 13-point deficit.
- TCU is getting a big lift with Kouat Noi and Jaylen Fisher both returning to health from injuries. Noi scored 27 and Fisher added 12 plus five assists as the Horned Frogs handled Eastern Michigan 87-69. The Frogs shot 60.7%, shredding the Eagles’ 2-3 zone.
- Bethune-Cookman topped Stetson 84-74 in the two schools’ crosstown rivalry, the Wildcats’ ninth win in 32 all-time meetings. Bethune still looks good as a favorite in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, as Cletrell Pope had 15 points and 14 rebounds and the Wildcats pounded the Hatters 54-35 on the glass.
- Northeastern had injury problems even when it caught attention by handily defeating Alabama in the Charleston Classic, and things have gotten worse for the Huskies. Star guard Vasa Pusica-one of the top players in the Colonial Athletic Association and the star of that Bama win-is out 4-6 weeks with a wrist injury.
Tonight’s Menu: It’s a schedule that starts rather slow but gains momentum as the night goes on
- The night on TV starts early with Maryland-Eastern Shore at St. John’s (6:30 p.m. Eastern, FS1). A game that, frankly, does not belong on national television. More worthy is Fairleigh Dickinson at Providence (8:30 p.m., FS1). The experienced Knights are one of the better teams in the Northeast Conference and take a shot at the Friars at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center.
- Virginia Tech has been red hot to start the season, but the Hokies haven’t played a true road game yet. They will tonight when they go to Penn State (7 p.m., ESPN2).
- A fascinating regional matchup will have UNC Charlotte and its Virginia-inspired style of play at offense-minded Davidson.
- Solid MAAC vs. MAC game: Iona will go to Ohio University. The Gaels fared respectably in road trips to New Mexico and Providence but came up short in both, and once again will face a team with some significant size in the Bobcats.
- Illinois is at Notre Dame in a matchup of two entertaining offensive teams (7 p.m., ESPNU).
- North Florida is 2-4 but hasn’t been an easy out. The Ospreys have enough to make Florida nervous if the Gators can’t get their offense on track (7 p.m., SEC Network).
- Highly underrated game between two former Southern Conference foes: East Tennessee State is at unbeaten Georgia Southern.
- Louisville will have a golden opportunity for a signature non-conference win when it hosts Michigan State (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Should be a charged up atmosphere that definitely could aid the Cardinals.
- One of the more anticipated non-conference matchups of all of November has Nevada at Loyola Chicago in a replay of last year’s superb Sweet 16 game. Somehow this one gets punted to ESPNews (8 p.m.), and on a night where it will certainly be buried behind some other high-profile programs playing.
- Undefeated North Texas puts its 8-0 record on the line at Oklahoma. The Sooners have performed well in dangerous games like this so far this year.
- Of course, the biggest spectacle of the night will be Indiana at Duke (9:30 p.m., ESPN). Interested to see how the Hoosiers respond after struggling to beat Texas-Arlington and UC Davis, if this team still has a ways to go or if it will play up to competition.
- Temple is at Missouri (9 p.m., SEC Network), with the opportunity for a solid win available for both.
- North Carolina State has played a pillow-soft schedule so far, but now takes to the road to face Wisconsin in what should be a great clash of styles (9 p.m., ESPN2).
- Pittsburgh is still unbeaten at 6-0; the Panthers face easily their toughest test so far as they’re at Iowa (9 p.m., ESPNU).
Have a super Tuesday.
