Post Thanksgiving turkey notes, observations and musings from the first couple weeks of the college basketball season:
- Whether it’s because teams are still a work in progress, or just had a hard time adjusting in game when things go south, the early season has had some real stinker single-game performances by teams. From Villanova getting blown out at home by Michigan, to solid MAC team Ohio University losing to South Florida-yes, South Florida-by the same score, to wounded-but-still-talented Stephen F. Austin falling by 40 at Miami (Fla.). These occasional early-season results have shown something that is easy to forget: that many teams truly are works in progress, and in November may be nowhere near the club they are in January, or maybe even December. It’s a reason not to overreact too much to one or two early season outcomes. It also is another example of the uphill battle teams from outside TV Conference sphere face, because an Ohio or Stephen F. Austin is essentially expected to be at its best from the start of the season. A lot of times that’s much easier said than done…
- Some might get there quicker than others, though. It shouldn’t be that surprising that Villanova could go from losing twice at home in four days to winning the AdvoCare Invitational. Jay Wright said in the preseason that he thought his team would be good, but that it would take a little time. The Wildcats looked far, far away in their loss to Michigan and not much closer when falling in overtime to Furman…and then went and won the Orlando tourney by handling Canisius, Oklahoma State and then early season trendy team Florida State. And they did it in totally different ways in the last two games, firing up the three-point machine (14-for-30 on triples) against OSU and then scoring 49 of their 66 points in the paint or at the line against the much taller and longer Seminoles. It’s already been fun watching the growth of sophomores Collin Gillespie and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, and along with veterans Phil Booth and Eric Paschall, there’s a good nucleus here.
- Also, as far as the speculation that a school like Villanova is doing itself a disservice when it gets a touted recruit like Jahvon Quinerly and then doesn’t hand him playing time because that’s ‘part of the deal’ for getting those recruits…I’ll personally will trust the judgment of a coach who has won two national championships in the last three years, thank you very much…
- With Villanova rebounding to win the AdvoCare Invitational, many are going to jump to the conclusion that Furman’s win at Nova was a fluke. If one watched the game, they should be exercising restraint before going there. For one thing, it took some serious moxie for the Paladins to win that game. The Wildcats built a 10-point lead late in the first half, responded to a Furman run to go ahead by four in the second half, had several Paladins in foul trouble, and then the hosts came back from five down in the final four minutes to retake the lead late in regulation. In any of those situations and especially the last one, an unheralded team playing on the road at the defending national champion in what was essentially a buy game would’ve withered. Furman was absolutely unflappable.
The Paladins also should have staying power because they run a lot of really good offense and are very sound on defense. Matt Rafferty is having a start that will be worth All-America consideration if he keeps it up, averaging 18.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists from the post, and he is the definition of crafty. Jordan Lyons has stepped in almost seamlessly as the team’s next high-scoring guard following in the line of Stephen Croone and Devin Sibley; Clay Mounce provides size, athleticism and versatility, and talented 6-foot-8 freshman Noah Gurley appeared to be growing up in front of the eyes against Villanova, asserting himself late with some bold drives to score against none other than Eric Paschall after deferring to others most of the game. Furman will lose some games this season, and there’s no guarantee it will even get out of a Southern Conference that is loaded at the top and is performing exceptionally well in early power rankings. But its win over Villanova was not an accident… - Who would’ve thought Michigan would hardly miss Moritz Wagner a bit, and had a freshman coming in who was posting equal and in quite a few cases better numbers than the Wolverines’ best player last year? It’s almost as if Michigan got several more years of Wagner when it brought in Ignas Brazdeikis, who looks nothing like a freshman and is averaging 16.9 points, 5.7 rebounds and is doing it all efficiently, shooting 54.9% from the field and 78.6% from the line. While Brazdeikis was a touted recruit and Michigan’s defense also has been exceptional again, he has been a true wild card in John Beilein’s team far outperforming expectations. One interesting thing about the Wolverines, though: they’re basically playing a seven-man rotation already early in the season. That’s just fine if everyone stays healthy…
- The West Coast Conference’s start cannot be ignored. There are a crazy number of metrics to measure teams and leagues with now, but to look at some basic, free, quick-and-easy to read numbers found here, under the old RPI, as of Wednesday the conference was sixth of 32 conferences. It also was a strong seventh in the first release of the NCAA’s new NET ranking. As of Wednesday, the WCC was 7-10 against RPI top 100 squads-far and away better than the Pac-12’s 5-16 (including 0-12 against the top 50…oy), as well as the American Athletic Conference’s 3-17 mark. Besides Gonzaga’s obvious excellence, San Diego and San Francisco have both looked capable, Loyola Marymount has been sky-high in early power ratings, and both BYU and Saint Mary’s will still lurk. The Zags, USF and LMU are all still undefeated as of Thursday, and the league was a collective 41-19 against Division I competition. Obviously it’s still very early, but if the success continues, it means conference games are going to help power ratings a lot more than hurt them as the season goes on. And if a couple of teams can separate from the pack a bit at the top, there’s a real chance for this to be a three-bid league in the NCAAs in March, and some of them may be teams not typically in that position…
- You can have Zion Williamson. For the money here, Murray State’s Ja Morant is the most exciting player in the country this season. And if one watched him last season, it’s really not even that surprising. Shooting, scoring, passing, rebounding, dunking-Morant is talented to the max. (Let’s just keep those turnovers down a little bit though)…
- Central Florida has struggled mightily to score for several years (it predates the Knights’ spate of injuries that diminished last year’s team). Thus, it was an eye-opener to see UCF shooting 55.2% in blitzing Saint Joseph’s in what on paper appeared to be a competitive game, and then doing it again the next game against Western Kentucky with 50.9% shooting to win the Myrtle Beach Invitational. The Knights also hit 10 three-pointers in both games, shooting 48.8% from three over the games, and had numerous players stepping up. Aubrey Dawkins was the obvious one, earning tourney MVP honors, but Terrell Allen also scored a career-high 22 against St. Joe’s, and Juco transfer Frank Bertz also provided shooting and hustle off the bench. UCF is already excellent defensively; whether the improved offense continues all season will determine if the Knights can get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005…
- By the way, if UCF continues to play well, then Florida Atlantic’s win over the Knights may be one of the most underrated ones of the early season. The Owls are playing very well under first-year coach Dusty May, a former Florida assistant, and 6-foot-7 Jailyn Ingram has particularly blossomed, averaging 18.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and already making more three-pointers (12, in just 27 attempts) than he did all of last year. FAU is 6-1 and its only loss came to Georgia Southern, which was undefeated until Tuesday night, and the Owls could easily get to 10-1 before a late December big-name double at Miami and then Illinois before the start of Conference USA play…
- Remember as last year went on and the idea started to gain some steam that Trae Young’s increasingly poor shot selection at Oklahoma was out of necessity and because of how bad his teammates were? Young is off to the NBA, yet the Sooners are 6-1 now and have a win over Florida, defeated Dayton, and also have pulled out gritty wins at home over the likes of good North Texas and Wofford teams and on the road at Texas-San Antonio. Christian James (over 19 ppg) and Jamuni McNeace (producing 10 points, seven rebounds and over two blocks a game) have both played better, and OU also is a far better defensive team so far…
- Wait-we just said ‘shot selection’ above. Is there anyone who even cares about shot selection anymore in college basketball? It saddens us to see that working for a good shot continues to be reduced in importance, coming at the expense of three-point bombs anytime, anywhere, and end-of-shot-clock plays that often lead to poor shots, even if they occasionally go in. Unfortunate…
- On that note, we didn’t get to see a ton of Oklahoma State last year, but it’s good to see Mike Boynton is still running a lot of the same spread motion offense as his predecessor Brad Underwood. Still honestly don’t understand why more coaches haven’t adopted Underwood’s offense, which was incredibly successful at Stephen F. Austin, energized Okie State quickly and is doing the same at Illinois this year (the Fighting Illini are just 2-5 but are averaging 79.9 ppg). It seems so many are under the spell of the ball screen or the ‘spacer’ offenses, with two guys standing in corners and the rest essentially playing 3-on-3 with a pick-and-roll guy. Many of the offenses of today are more reliant on 1) hitting the pick & roll or 2) guys making plays (let’s call it ‘Dudeball’) than on scheme. It’s always seemed to us that, unless a school has a nose for finding ‘dudes,’ that it would behoove them to have offensive or defensive schemes that are hard to guard and prepare for. And Underwood’s offense is certainly that, even as it may be more structured than recruits may be used to…
- College of Charleston is still a very good team-it showed as much by topping UAB and then Memphis in the AdvoCare Invitational, as well as defeating Rhode Island earlier. The Cougars have two fantastic players in Jarrell Brantley and Grant Riller, but have looked too much like a two-man team early on, and are another team that is still a work in progress. Charleston’s offense spent a lot of time on the perimeter against Oklahoma State, but the team has struggled from outside. The two stars are part of a collective effort that has really struggled from three-point range (just 27.2% as a team, after hitting 36% from there last year), with Riller just 6-for-30 from there (20%, after hitting 39.4% in 2017-18) and Brantley making 9 of 31 (29%, also nearly 10 percentage points off his rate last year). Just 68 assists through seven games also says a lot. Charleston really could use a return from guard Marquise Pointer, who was poised for a bigger role this year after the graduation of Joe Chealey but has been out with an elbow injury…
- Thanksgiving weekend just wasn’t the same without the Great Alaska Shootout. Newer fans probably won’t understand it considering the event was diminished in recent years and not on ESPN, but for many those of us who have followed the sport for 30 years or more, the loss of the Shootout was a tough one. So many great games over the years there, but Alaska also had uniqueness, something the non-conference season sorely needs more of now. Having games in a cold-weather locale like Alaska and not just in warm tropics or tourist areas-this is an indoor sport, after all-is a flavor that college basketball has lost…
- Iona seems to never change under Coach Tim Cluess. The Gaels again have guards that can score (E.J. Crawford, Asante Gist, Rickey McGill), still shoot a ton of threes, still play a ton of zone, and still struggle to rebound. Iona also has again come up just short in some high-profile opportunities early against New Mexico and Providence, but will be just fine in the Metro Atlantic. The Gaels do have a real find in 6-foot-9 junior college transfer Tajuan Agee, who is a battler inside, is a skilled passer and can even step out and shoot the three-pointer, and should only improve as he gets more acclimated to Division I ball. Agee played well in Iona’s loss to Providence over Thanksgiving weekend, and sure enough he stepped up even more with a season-high 23 with eight rebounds in the Gaels’ loss at Ohio on Tuesday…
- One of those many teams quietly lurking early in the season: Texas State. The Bobcats are off to a 6-1 start, drilled Portland of the WCC on the road by 23, topped Air Force and Rice, and their only loss is to Drake. It’s not high-class competition, but TSU is beating teams by an average of 18.6 points per game, in part due to Danny Kaspar’s trademark terrific halfcourt defense (37.0% defensive field goal percentage. Texas State is another team like Central Florida that has seemed to perpetually struggle to score (in part because it plays at one of the most deliberate paces in the country), but the Bobcats have been good on that end (47.4% from the floor, 38.4% from 3), and junior Nijal Pearson has become a full-fledged stud, averaging 21.0 ppg so far, including an incredible 53.2% from three-point range. Along with Georgia Southern, Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette, this is another to watch in the Sun Belt…
- Our final early-season thought on the NCAA’s NET ranking, which we discussed in the Morning Dish earlier this week. Obviously it’s way, way, way too early to get bent out of shape about early rankings, and the only measure of if the ranking is any good won’t come until the end of the season. What we will say is that, at the end of the season, if the NET becomes just yet another tool that gives the TV Conferences even more of an advantage, then we’re not in favor of it. For as much as the RPI was ripped in the past, it was often overlooked that, at the end of the year, it also was frequently more friendly (and we’d argue fairer) to teams and leagues that don’t play 90% of their games in November and December at home or neutral sites than other metrics have been.
Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam
