As we pass by the final day without a Division I basketball game until March, it’s a good time to think about how conferences shape up since non-conference play is almost entirely in the rearview mirror. Back in early November, we took a quick look at each conference, but now we have about two months to go on. In some cases, nothing has changed, while in others, a lot has. So here we go.
ACC: Virginia, Duke and North Carolina will lead the conversation and might be the three main contenders, but one will do well not to sleep on Florida State, Virginia Tech and NC State. Syracuse could be in there as well, but offense could thwart them.
America East: This should come down to two schools that have fought for the top spot a lot over the past decade, Vermont and Stony Brook. The Seawolves are 6-1 in road games.
American Athletic Conference: Cincinnati and Houston look like the two teams to beat. Don’t count out preseason favorite UCF.
Atlantic 10: This one looks as wide open now as it did in November. Who has been the best team thus far? Is it Saint Louis, who has looked really good (wins over Seton Hall, Butler and Oregon State) or so-so (losses to Pittsburgh and Southern Illinois and a recent blowout to Florida State)? Is it VCU, with wins over Temple, Texas and a sleepy good Hofstra team? Is it Davidson, with wins over Wichita State and Northeastern (two over the latter)? Or perhaps Rhode Island, who has beat West Virginia and Harvard but went 1-2 in the Diamond Head Classic, which had a good-but-not-great field? Don’t count out Saint Joseph’s, a preseason favorite who has played a tough schedule.
Atlantic Sun: This one looks to be a three-horse race between Liberty, Lipscomb, and NJIT. What makes NJIT especially dangerous is their 6-1 mark on the road, as they have to travel further for road games than any other school in the conference.
Big 12: Until someone beats Kansas, the Jayhawks are the pick here. Oklahoma, TCU and Texas Tech look like the best challengers; Kansas State and West Virginia are capable of making this interesting but have underperformed thus far.
Big East: Villanova looks vulnerable, so who takes it from the Wildcats if they don’t get it together to win again? St. John’s hasn’t lost a game yet, but if we’re picking someone other than Villanova, Marquette is probably the best pick. Besides those two, Seton Hall has looked better than expected, Butler is good and unspectacular, and Providence has potential but will be without a key player in A.J. Reeves for about half of Big East play. Creighton, Xavier and Georgetown are good enough to influence the race and be sleepers (yes, Xavier as a sleeper – you read that right).
Big Sky: Montana was the preseason favorite, and the Grizzlies have done nothing to change that impression. Weber State and Northern Colorado look like the best challengers.
Big South: Radford’s great start that included wins at Notre Dame and Texas would at first glance make them relatively clear favorites to win it again, but the Highlanders have come back to earth at times. In addition, the Big South has been intensely competitive most of the past decade, so look for Gardner-Webb and Winthrop to push them at the very least.
Big Ten: Michigan has been the clear best team and one of the best in the country thus far. But they won’t have it easy considering the great couple of months the conference has had. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nebraska (yes, Nebraska), Indiana and Ohio State are all very capable as well. Further down, the likes of Iowa, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland, Minnesota and Penn State can all influence the race for the top as they’re all capable of getting the wins to be NCAA Tournament teams.
Big West: UC Irvine has done nothing to disabuse anyone of the notion that they are the favorites here. Hawaii and UC Santa Barbara have had good runs as well.
CAA: This looks like a three-horse race between the three teams picked atop the conference in the preseason. Northeastern has a lot of options and is getting healthier, College of Charleston has had the best couple of months, and Hofstra got hot late and has the guards to contend.
Conference USA: While North Texas has the shiny 12-1 record, they also have three non-Division I wins, so Old Dominion with their 10-3 mark that includes a win at Syracuse looks like a better pick. Louisiana Tech is 10-3 and Marshall is one dark horse as they’re 7-5 but haven’t played a single non-Division I team to go with six true road games. The other dark horse is Western Kentucky because they have enough talent to start winning more.
Horizon League: There may not be a clear favorite here, but leading the way would appear to be Green Bay, IUPUI, Northern Kentucky and Wright State. Only NKU has a great record, but they have all had some tests aside from the two non-Division I wins each one has.
Ivy League: This should be a three-horse race between Harvard, Penn and Yale, and it will be especially interesting if Harvard gets healthier than they have been. Don’t be surprised as well if a team in the bottom half of the standings picks off a top team along the way – the league has good depth, though the top three are a cut above the others.
MAAC: This stretch was not the MAAC’s finest hour, but you can count on this conference to be intensely competitive as usual with teams having taken their lumps. Rider was the preseason favorite and remains so, and it appears wide open after them – but don’t be surprised if someone knocks them off, too.
MAC: Simply put, this will be Buffalo and everyone else.
MEAC: Non-conference only tells you so much about these teams since most of them play a lot of guarantee games. North Carolina A&T looks like the best team thus far, with Howard, Morgan State and Norfolk State also looking like they could be in the mix.
Missouri Valley: Drake and Indiana State not only have the best records, but they also have the best NET rankings and each finished well in a tournament as Drake won the Las Vegas Classic and Indiana State was runner-up in the Diamond Head Classic. Don’t sleep on Loyola, who may be turning a corner after starting slower than expected, or Southern Illinois, who is well-tested.
Mountain West: This should be a race for second place behind Nevada. Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State lead the way in that department.
Northeast: Like the MAAC, this conference is always intensely competitive. This time around, St. Francis Brooklyn, Central Connecticut and Fairleigh Dickinson look like the leaders, but don’t be surprised if someone like Wagner, LIU Brooklyn, Sacred Heart or preseason favorite Saint Francis University – who hasn’t had a great couple of months – takes it.
Ohio Valley: Expect this to once again come down to Belmont and Murray State. Austin Peay and Jacksonville State look to be the teams most capable of pushing those two.
Pac-12: The conference looked wide open before the season, and while it looks less so now, I hesitate to call Arizona State the favorites despite carrying the flag for the conference to date. Washington should be right there, UCLA has the talent to be there and Arizona has been a little better than advertised, with Colorado as a sleeper. Don’t look for more than two or three NCAA Tournament bids from here.
Patriot League: Heavy personnel losses may have made many back away from Bucknell as a favorite, but the Bison have shown well and will enter league play well-tested. Lehigh hasn’t done anything to make you think they aren’t still a favorite, and Colgate has also fared well. Holy Cross is the sleeper.
SEC: Tennessee tops this one, with Auburn and Mississippi State behind them. Kentucky has the talent to be right there, and LSU has looked about as advertised. After that, it’s a bunch of wild cards like Florida, Alabama and Vanderbilt that lead the way. Ole Miss is your sleeper, while Missouri has been better than expected and Texas A&M may be starting to turn a corner after a slow start.
Southern: This should be a fun race to watch based on what teams did out of conference. Furman grabbed a lot of headlines, but East Tennessee State, Samford, UNC Greensboro and Wofford have all given reason to believe they can win it as well.
Southland: Abilene Christian has the best record and could be primed to win this for the first time in Division I, although their three non-Division I wins knock the quality of their 10-2 record down a peg. Stephen F. Austin looks like their best challenger, with Houston Baptist and Lamar also in the mix.
SWAC: Texas Southern is as well-tested as anyone, and they beat Baylor along the way. While no one comes away looking like an overwhelming favorite as this is another conference where teams play a lot of guarantee games and have records that reflect it – no one is even at .500 – the Tigers look like the team to beat once again.
Summit League: This should be South Dakota State’s to lose. The Jackrabbits are 10-5 against a tough slate, plus they have Mike Daum and other teams don’t. (They also have a solid cast around him with guys like David Jenkins, Tevin King and Skyler Flatten.)
Sun Belt: This should be a good race that features two in-state rivals in Georgia State and Georgia Southern, who were among the preseason favorites. Texas State looks like they should be in the mix, as their 10-2 mark includes a 4-2 road record.
WAC: This should be New Mexico State’s to lose. The Aggies came agonizingly close to knocking off Kansas and rebounded from a tough loss to Drake to beat Washington State in Las Vegas. Seattle, Grand Canyon and Utah Valley will certainly try to knock them off.
West Coast Conference: It would be a real shock if anyone knocked Gonzaga off their perch atop the conference, but the WCC has some real depth as they have had a really good couple of months. BYU is one challenger, typical challenger Saint Mary’s has improved all along, while San Diego, San Francisco and Loyola Marymount will enter with some good wins and good records along with the confidence those normally bring.
Side Dishes
From the You Can’t Just Make This Stuff Up files: Earlier this month, Boston College was supposed to travel to take on Texas A&M, but due to mechanical and weather issues, never made the trip, so the game was canceled (and Texas A&M will not go to Boston College next year). On Wednesday night, the Eagles were in Dallas for the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, played at the Cotton Bowl Stadium where Texas A&M has played a number of times over the years. Due to weather issues, the game was… (drum roll) canceled!
Tonight’s Menu
Just one Division I game is on tap today as UMKC visits Creighton in a game tipping at 8 p.m. Eastern on FS1.
