With the turn of the calendar to January and conference play now fully underway, bracket projections are spreading quicker than ice over a Wisconsin lake. Something we’ll be very curious to watch will be how the NCAA’s new metric tool, the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, affects teams outside the TV Conferences, the six leagues that regularly are appropriated a vast share of at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.
ESPN TV analyst Mark Adams has been at the forefront raising concerns that the NET early on is working to the advantage of the sport’s richest conferences, even more than the RPI did. That would be a development the sport needs about as much as it needs more video reviews, so the statistics are disheartening, and a bit maddening for anyone sick of seeing 14-15 loss teams rewarded with NCAA bids and the possibility that we’ll see even more of them.
Looking at the case of Georgia State, it’s also easy to be concerned. The Panthers-12-4 vs. NCAA Division I opponents-are getting just about no attention for an at-large spot at this time. Yet if one looks at the NCAA’s own Nitty-Gritty sheets as of mid-January, the Panthers are 1-2 in Quadrant 1 games, 3-2 against Quadrant 2, and a perfect 8-0 against quads 3 and 4. The strength of schedule of 81 is competitive.
The Panthers already have a very solid win at Alabama (ask Arizona or Kentucky how easy it is to win in Tuscaloosa), blew out Georgia, topped a good East Tennessee State team, and their four losses are all away from home. Three are against NCAA tourney teams from a year ago (Creighton, Kansas State and Montana) and the fourth is to Liberty, which famously won at UCLA last month. The overall resume is one that certainly at least deserves a serious look halfway through the season.
What’s really curious about Georgia State is, if one looks at the resume through the lens of the Ratings Percentage Index, which was used by the NCAA last year, the numbers (per Warren Nolan.com) are almost the exact same. The Panthers have the same records against all four quadrants, and almost the same strength of schedule (87).
Same performances against quadrants, essentially the same strength of schedule. And yet, Georgia State as of today is ranked No. 37 in the RPI, yet No. 103 in the NET. Which makes the conclusion quite clear: the only reason why there is zero buzz for the Panthers in contention for an at-large spot right now is because of their overall NET ranking.
Comparing the top 80 in the RPI (a broad net that generally encapsulates any team that would be an at-large contender), there’s not a single instance remotely like this with a TV Conference team, where a team deserving at least an at-large look right now gets dinged so heavily by the NET.
The closest might be UCLA, which is 61 in the RPI, 91 in the NET, but even the Bruins get credit for one more Quadrant 2 win in the NET than RPI. On the other hand, a team like Georgia State is Belmont, ranked 62 for RPI and 89 in the NET, with one of its two RPI Quadrant 1 wins also taken away.
As far as the inverse, the closest examples of non-TV Conference teams benefitting from the NET are Buffalo, San Francisco, Murray State and Liberty, but even in their cases the overall effects are negligible. The latter three cases in particular illustrate that there are always outliers between formulas for actual ranks, but a higher number by the name doesn’t guarantee resume help.
The Bulls have almost the exact same rank (14 in the NET; 16 in RPI) but do pick up a Quadrant 1 win with the NET, but they also are credited with just one Quadrant 2 win vs. five with the RPI. Buffalo should be fine, but even one of those Quad 1 wins slipping would be cause for some concern.
USF, meanwhile, moves way up in the NET where it is No. 40 (vs. 79 in the RPI), but the Dons in the NET are still 0-2 vs. Quadrant 1, have just one Quadrant 2 win and even have a Quadrant 3 win dropped to Quadrant 4. Murray State moves up even more drastically-from 96 in the RPI to 42 in the NET, but the Racers still are 0-2 against Quadrant 1, but also lose their only Quadrant 2 win in the RPI. Liberty is 121 in the RPI but 44 in the NET, a massive upgrade, but again, the resume comparisons don’t tell the same story. The Flames in the RPI are currently 1-1 against Quadrant 1 and 2-1 vs. Quadrant 2, but in the NET the Flames are a collective 1-3 vs. quads 1 & 2, losing the Quad 1 win and loss and a Quad 2 victory too.
USF, Murray State and Liberty will see their RPI go up if they dominate in their conferences, likely landing in a 50-70 range at the end of the season. In all three cases, though, the sad truth is that while the NET number is nice and the first two especially look like NCAA Tournament teams, many will quickly pick apart their resumes loaded with Quadrant 4 wins and say there’s nothing there to deserve it, no matter what their NET number is.
Obviously, this is anecdotal evidence and only a current snapshot. These numbers also could even out as the season goes on; just like the RPI, the NET’s numbers will get stronger with larger sample sizes, though the use of efficiency numbers in the NET is supposed to minimize that effect. And certainly, Georgia State could play its way out of any kind of at-large consideration with even 3-4 losses in the Sun Belt.
Nor is this an automatic defense of the RPI, which could’ve been and still could be improved on. At this point, though, the evidence continues to mount that the NET is no friend to teams like Georgia State or Belmont, and little help for the resumes of teams like Murray State or San Francisco, either. That should be concerning for fans of teams like them.
Texas Tech has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, and it has to be said what a pleasure it is to watch the Red Raiders play on both ends, and not just defense, where they’re nothing less than one of the very best teams in the country. Chris Beard coached under Bob Knight, and his team’s motion offense looks a lot like Knight’s Indiana and Texas Tech teams played, with its unselfishness and movement away from the ball. While Jarrett Culver in particular has become one of the top players in the country, most notable is that he’s hardly a ball hog; despite being clearly the Red Raiders’ go-to player and frankly one of the most indispensable players in the country, he doesn’t even rank in the top 250 in the country in field goal attempts. Culver will come off screens or set them, and he rarely wastes a dribble. Tech isn’t going to wow people with huge scoring numbers (it averages just 72.7 ppg as of Tuesday) but its unselfishness is a beautiful thing to enjoy.
From here, Maryland is not a team we thought would become one to really watch this season, but we’re sold on the Terrapins, even after they nearly coughed up a game they had all but won against Wisconsin on Monday. Bruno Fernando has quickly become one of the best big men in the country. He rebounds like a tornado and has some great footwork too. Anthony Cowan is electric with the ball, seemingly shifting from second to fourth gear in a jiffy, and though the Terps are young, they are extra-long. It’s an improved team from outside too from a year ago, when Maryland could look impotent against a zone defense. If we had to pick a team to emerge from the extremely muddled pack behind Michigan and Michigan State in the Big Ten, the Terrapins would be our pick right now.
Loyola Chicago undoubtedly lost some very important leaders from its Final Four team. Still, the Ramblers’ overall inconsistency has been confounding. After ups and downs in November and December, Loyola appeared ready to turn a corner in Missouri Valley Conference play when it shot a combined 59.6% in back-to-back wins over Indiana State and Drake, but then it plunged back to earth making 37.3% in a 19-point defeat at Evansville. The showing was reminiscent of games against Furman (37.0%), Maryland (32.7%) and Saint Joseph’s (34.0%) where Loyola shot badly. Most concerning about the Evansville game and its loss to Nevada when we watched as well was the number of layups the Ramblers missed and overall times when players simply finished weakly around the basket, as well as the Purple Aces-the worst rebounding team in the MVC-posting a plus-9 rebound margin and regularly beating Loyola players to loose balls. Yet just when it looked like the Ramblers may be slipping into a muddled pack in the Valley, Loyola was superb again on Tuesday when it shot 53.3% and had six score in double figures in a rout of previously undefeated Valparaiso.
Ups and downs will be understandable with so many new players being counted on heavily. Even with its losses from a year ago, though, Loyola still returned the MVC’s player of the year (Clayton Custer), an all-conference big man (Cameron Krutwig) and a veteran third starter who has hit clutch shots and has ample postseason experience (Marques Townes). Despite that experience-and despite overall numbers on the season that indicate the Ramblers have been just fine on both ends-Loyola has looked tentative on offense too much and needs more from its veterans while the newcomers continue to come along.
Custer’s numbers are not bad for the season-13.7 points and 2.9 assists per game, 42.7% from three-point range-but they are down slightly to moderately in most areas. He’s hardly the only guard who has had some surprising struggles, though. Joe Rosga is a four-year starter on a Denver team that was expected to challenge in the Summit League this year, but his averages of 12.5 ppg and 39.5% from the field are career lows (the latter is far off his career percentage of 45.9% coming into the year). The Pioneers have been a real disappointment with a 5-14 record and are 0-5 in the Summit. Canisius guard Isaiah Reese also was one of the top players in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference last year, as a sophomore averaging 16.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists and leading the Golden Griffins to a share of the MAAC regular season title. Reese played so well that he declared for the NBA draft before returning for his junior year, but this year has been a rough one. The 6-foot-4 guard has seen noticeable declines in scoring (to 12.4 ppg) and field goal percentage (from 46.3% to 38.1%), and Canisius has scuffled to a 5-11 record. None of these cases are to suggest that one player is costing these teams-in fact, changing team dynamics like the losses of big men like Daniel Amigo at Denver and Jermaine Crumpton from Canisius are much bigger factors. It’s just unfortunate to watch players not play up to their previous standard when they’ve demonstrated to be capable of more.
While we’re rightfully appreciating Mississippi’s surprising start in the first year of the Kermit Davis era-indeed, Terence Davis and Breein Tyree have become an outstanding, take-no-prisoners backcourt and the Rebels are a pleasant surprise-let it also not be forgotten how it has come at the expense to some degree of Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders, of course, lost their coach of 16 years when Davis left MTSU for Ole Miss, but also leaving with him were three recruits. Two of them followed Davis to Ole Miss, and one of them-K.J. Buffen-is a key contributor, essentially the seventh man playing more than 20 minutes per game and the team’s No. 2 rebounder. A third one-Tye Fagan-is playing nearly 15 minutes per game as a freshman at another SEC school, Georgia.
While Mississippi flourishes and Georgia is up and down but not an easy out in the SEC, Middle Tennessee State is struggling to a 3-14 record and is 0-4 in Conference USA, seemingly well on its way to one of its worst seasons in school history after its roster was gutted in the offseason. One can give the NCAA Tournament selection committee an assist on its deconstruction of the MTSU program. It was no surprise Davis would move to greener pastures after the Blue Raiders were way underseeded by the committee in 2016 and 2017 and snubbed from the tourney completely last year despite winning games in the Big Dance both of those years and being ranked in the top 25 late in the season. Recent committees’ over-reliance on big wins cost MTSU and created a standard coaches at many schools like it will find impossible to meet.
Trevion Williams didn’t play much for Purdue early in the season-just 26 minutes total in the Boilermakers’ first 10 games, and only recently saw an uptick with 20+ minutes in the team’s last three games. Boy, does his game show some resemblance to another player who recently wore No. 50 there, though. Obviously Williams has a long way to go to reach Caleb Swanigan standards, but his averaging a double-double the last three games-12.7 points and 12 rebounds-can make the Boilers a whole different team than they were early on, when they relied so much on the perimeter and Carsen Edwards.
We watched tape of Wofford’s game at Oklahoma early this season, a contest that for us was notable as more for Oklahoma looking like a better team without Trae Young than for the Terriers’ play. Wofford was very competitive in the game and even led well into the second half, but the Sooners attacked the basket relentlessly late and took control. The Terriers also weren’t quite clicking on offense, with Fletcher Magee forcing some shots-even by his lofty standards, being one of the best quick draws in the country and regularly making shots when he’s not squared to the hoop-and the rest of the team struggling from the field, too. The Terriers also missed a chance at Mississippi State, unable to hold a big lead, and faded at home against North Carolina late, though they did drill South Carolina on the road in late November.
Wofford’s 72-43 destruction of UNC Greensboro on the road last week, though, completely dominating the defending Southern Conference champs from start-to-finish, was a game that forces one to take notice. The Terriers dominated in every aspect on the road, shooting nearly 50%, holding the Spartans to 32.7% shooting and posting a commanding 41-24 rebounding advantage. Wofford was hot from the perimeter (10 of 21 from three-point land), but also outplayed lengthy UNCG inside, even grabbing 13 offensive boards. The Terriers also go solidly nine-deep (Chevez Goodwin grabbed 10 rebounds in just 17 minutes off the bench), and if they get good play inside from Cameron Jackson and Keve Aluma, it’s a team that could certainly ride hot shooting by Magee and Nathan Hoover to several wins in March.
It’s good to see SaBastian Townes for Bryant wears jersey number 54. How many players do we see anymore wear 54? Seriously-among eligible jersey numbers, there may not be a less-used one in the country than 54. Anyone can wear a single-digit number or teens number. Some teams now barely even have a single jersey number used above 25. Salute to Townes for doing something different, and it’s appropriate for a fun, unique player to watch who at 6-foot-5 can play inside, outside, and everywhere in between.
Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam
