We’re finally at the time of year when discussion of the proverbial “bubble” and teams’ NCAA Tournament at-large chances are going to fill talk about college basketball. Over the next month, few teams are going to be talked about more than Wofford, and in fact the Terriers are already a hot topic in some channels now.
The Terriers on Thursday continued their impressive, undefeated run thus far through the very tough Southern Conference with a very tough 78-76 overtime win at East Tennessee State. It was an absolutely splendid game, with 10 ties, nine lead changes and with six points being the largest lead by either team in the entire contest. The large majority of the contest was a one-possession game, and Wofford coach Mike Young was absolutely right in saying it “should have been on national television.”
At the end, Terriers star Fletcher Magee was the difference, scoring 32 points, including 11 in overtime. The win in front of a rollicking crowd of nearly 6,000 at ETSU’s Freedom Hall was Wofford’s 11th straight as it improved to 20-4 overall and 12-0 in the SoCon, no easy feat given the league’s strength this year.
NBCSports.com’s Rob Dauster made a case for Wofford earlier in the day, believing that its NET ranking-No. 29 entering Thursday’s game-alone should be weighted heavily by the selection committee. Maybe it should, but most likely it will not be given that the selection committee could’ve been doing such a thing for years, yet almost joyfully ignored high RPI rankings for teams like Wofford, from the time Missouri State was snubbed with a No. 21 rank in 2006 all the way through last year when Middle Tennessee State’s No. 33 mark was left out.
From this view, though, Wofford at this point in time should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and it’s not because of its NET or Pomeroy or any other rank. It’s certainly not because of the Terriers’ great Quadrant 1 performance either-Wofford was just 1-4 in such games entering Thursday night, with its lone win coming in conference at UNC Greensboro.
The win over East Tennessee State may have given the Terriers a second Quad 1 victory, which would help a little bit. Let’s take the worst case view, though, which would be that the win falls just outside Quadrant 1. It makes almost zero difference from here if one is evaluating an entire resume.
Look past Quadrant 1, and you’ll see that Wofford is 3-0 against Quadrant 2. (Add another win to that if the ETSU game falls to that category) Look further and you’ll see a 4-0 mark against Quadrant 3.
That’s a 7-0 (or 8-0) mark against Quadrants 2 & 3 combined. Big deal, you might say? Actually, it is.
Entering Thursday night, just 11 of the top 100 in the NET-in fact, 11 teams in all of NCAA Division I, total-had an undefeated mark in games against both Quadrants 2 & 3. Six of them are inside the NET top 10. Two more (Texas Tech at 16, Iowa at 24) are still in the top 25 and would easily make the field at this time and barring a massive collapse the rest of the way.
Look at almost any team even close to the bubble and you’ll find at least one or two losses in these games, and frequently more. The only teams outside extremely safe NCAA territory to be without a sub-Quadrant 1 loss are Wofford, fellow SoCon member UNC Greensboro and Mississippi.
Indiana has two Quadrant 2 losses. North Carolina State has a Quadrant 3 loss. St. John’s has one of each. Syracuse has two of each. Kansas State has three Quadrant 2 losses. Alabama has a Quadrant 2 loss and a pair in Quadrant 3 L’s. Texas has three Quad 2 losses and two more in Quad 3.
Even Duke and Kentucky had Quadrant 2 losses as of Thursday. Michigan State had two of them, and in just one more chance than Wofford. Purdue and Nevada had no Quadrant 2 losses, but one each in Quadrant 3.
If these games are really so meaningless, then why is it that so many teams lose them, even teams in the top 10? The truth is, whatever Wofford is giving up in the lack of top-notch wins-unquestionably in part because the Terriers played four of those five Quadrant 1 games on the road-it also is gaining significantly on other “bubble” teams in the area of taking care of business regularly in games that supposedly mean less.
Quadrant 1 victories for teams on the fence are frequently the result of opportunity as much as excellence. The quantity of such wins is not entirely insignificant, but it should not get nearly as much attention as it does. The record in Quadrant 1 games also has been largely minimized while that number of victories gets proclaimed as a gospel truth of a team’s quality. Yet as we often note, a team like Indiana or Ole Miss that is 3-7 against Quadrant 1 is only proving that when it has 10 chances at-large caliber competition-which is essentially what the old RPI top 50 was and what Quad 1 is supposed to approximate-they lose 70% of the time.
At the same time, the selection committee has attempted to deem wins against Quadrants 2 and 3 as unimportant. They’re flat-out wrong. Winning these games consistently should absolutely mean something, especially when Quadrant 1 games don’t provide enough of a sample. Victories against even teams in the 150-200 range can be good wins if they’re on the road. A loss or two to such teams isn’t uncommon, so when a team is running the table against them, you bet it should mean something.
The selection committee has badly missed the boat on this in recent years (see: Monmouth in 2016, when the Hawks’ sub-200 losses on the road were dramatized to be a death knell, when in reality major conference teams lost such games at a similar rate the few times they played them). If it was up to us, at this point of the season in early February Wofford would be a lock for the tournament and only a collapse could keep it out, and even UNC Greensboro (5-0 vs. Quads 2 and 3 entering Thursday, though just one of those wins was in Quadrant 2) would be in or very, very close. Meaning that the Southern Conference-ancient and history-rich as it is but never having put two teams into the NCAA Tournament in the same season-would be very, very much in the hunt for at least two bids, and possibly three if an East Tennessee State, Furman or another team won what promises to be a fantastic conference tournament in March.
Side Dishes:
- Thursday featured all kinds of buzzer beaters. Carlik Jones of Radford is quickly becoming one of the premier clutch shot guys that the sport has seen in years. Jones hit the three-pointer that sent the Highlanders to the NCAA Tournament last year, and on Thursday he hit a triple to send the game into overtime AND a game-winning three in Radford’s 101-98 victory over Hampton.
- Jones was hardly the only one to deliver heroics. New Mexico State’s Trevelin Queen hit a three from the wing as overtime expired to give the Aggies a 71-70 win on the blue court (ick) at Cal State Bakersfield. NMSU continues to torture WAC foes, having also topped Grand Canyon on a halfcourt shot last month. Also beating the final horn: Youngstown State’s Garrett Covington drilled a three from the wing to give the Penguins a 72-71 win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Good to see for a program that deserves some success after so many years of struggle. And in the Big Sky, Idaho State’s Chier Maker tipped in a miss with :00.9 left as the Bengals won at Northern Arizona 81-79.
- Besides the wild finishes, there was Houston just continuing to deliver. The Cougars won at Central Florida 77-68 in a game not as close as the final score. Don’t look at the stats to tell the story of this one; Houston was fully in charge and again impressed. Corey Davis scored 26 and Kelvin Sampson’s team won the battle of defense-minded squads to improve to 22-1. One major problem for UCF: free throw shooting, where it was just 14 of 27. Ouch.
- Also in the American, what a win by Cincinnati. The Bearcats trailed by 11 in the second half but came back to beat old Metro Conference rival Memphis 69-64 in a charged up environment. Jaron Cumberland scored 17 and the Bearcats made just enough at the foul line (12 of 22…shaky) to win. UC has a huge one coming up Sunday at Houston, a must-watch game this weekend.
- How about South Florida? The Bulls are now 16-6 overall and solidly in the top half of the American at 6-4 after a 67-66 win at SMU. The Mustangs had rallied with a huge 11-0 run late to take the lead after trailing much of the second half, but David Collins made a pair of three-pointers, the second with six seconds left for what proved to be the winner.
- Iowa picked up a solid road win, while Indiana’s good vibes from beating Michigan State were fleeting. The Hawkeyes won 77-72 at Assembly Hall, with Jordan Bohanon (25 points) outscoring Romeo Langford (22).
- San Francisco got a second chance against the Gonzaga juggernaut after just missing in its chance to beat the Bulldogs at home, but the Zags pulled away to win 92-62. Gonzaga shot 50%; USF wasn’t close to that, and that won’t cut it in Spokane. After a great start to the season the Dons have struggled on the road of late, this being their third straight loss, all away from Memorial Gym.
- After its 16-game losing streak ended last week at Northeastern, it might have been intriguing to see how Hofstra responded in its next game. The Pride pummeled Elon 102-61. Wow. It’s “only” Elon, but that’s a statement. Tareq Coburn made seven three-pointers in the first half and Hofstra led by 35 at halftime.
- Lurking in the CAA are College of Charleston and Northeastern. The Cougars are now quietly 19-6 overall and 8-4 in league after an 83-75 win over Delaware. Charleston also will get the CAA Tournament in its hometown in March. Northeastern also won again, topping William & Mary 72-60 to move to 14-9 overall and 8-3 in the CAA. The Huskies are a different team since Vasa Pusica returned from injury.
- The Pac-12 seems to be doing its very best to be a one-bid conference unless Washington would lose in the conference tournament. Arizona’s at-large chances continue to get thinner after a 67-60 loss at home to the Huskies, a prime chance for a quality win lost. That still wasn’t as bad as Arizona State hosting lowly Washington State and somehow losing 91-70 against the Cougars, who came in 1-8 in this weak Pac-12 and lost to the likes of Seattle, Montana State and Santa Clara out of conference. This is the equivalent of getting drilled at home by a second-division Big Sky team, and common sense should say now that, whatever goodwill the Sun Devils will still get from beating Kansas in December, you can now completely wipe out the good of that win because it’s been matched by a loss of equal or worse value.
- Old Dominion continues to lead Conference USA after a solid 70-59 win on the road at Alabama-Birmingham. Ahmad Caver and B.J. Stith both scored 21 points and the Monarchs’ reliable defense shut down their old Sun Belt rival Blazers to 37.3% shooting.
- The Ohio Valley Conference race remains hot. Belmont (83-65 victors at Eastern Kentucky), Austin Peay (blew out Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 80-45) and Murray State (86-75 over Eastern Illinois) all won and are now in a three-way tie for first. It could’ve been four, but Jacksonville State-so impressive in drilling Murray State last week-lost its second straight, this time falling at Tennessee-Martin 66-64 to drop a game behind the other three.
- Off the court, the big news was at Kansas, where it was announced Lagerald Vick is taking a leave of absence from the team, with no timetable for his return. The Kansas City Star is reporting Vick is returning to attend to family issues in Memphis, Tenn., with his mother saying it would be for “a couple weeks.” Needless to say, Vick’s absence for any length of time could be a huge one for the Jayhawks in their quest to continue their long-running Big 12 title streak.
- One other note off the court, former UCLA All-American Don Johnson passed away Wednesday at the age of 88. Johnson played two years for the Bruins and led the team to a pair of Pacific Coast Conference titles in 1951 and 1952 and was a consensus All-American in 1952. (Note the comparatively modest numbers of top players in those days.) He then went on to have a long and successful career as a junior college coach in California.
Tonight’s Menu:
- A schedule of 12 games in Division I opens with all but three of the games tipping at 7 p.m. Eastern time. The biggest one is in the Ivy League, where ancient rivals Princeton and Yale meet in New Haven. The Tigers are atop the league with a 4-0 mark, with Yale and Harvard one game back. Princeton already has three road wins in the Ivy too.
- Another big one in the Ivy League (where almost all of them have implications as at this point any of the eight teams looks like it could get into the four-team league tourney) is Pennsylvania at Brown. The Quakers are already 1-3, and the Bears are 1-3 too after a strong non-conference run.
- Saint Louis is at Saint Joseph’s (7 p.m., ESPN2), with SLU looking to make it a season sweep and also to build on a convincing win over Dayton earlier this week.
- The Metro Atlantic is wide, wide open. Heavy preseason favorite Rider leads at the moment but a gaggle of five teams is separated by a game at the top. That includes Canisius, which is playing without suspended star Isaiah Reese but will aim for the road win here. (7 p.m., ESPNU).
- The Sun Belt Conference has had a relationship with ESPN since shortly after the network’s birth, and it continues. Georgia State is at Louisiana-Lafayette (9 p.m., ESPN2) with the Panthers sharing the conference lead while the Ragin’ Cajuns have struggled defensively in losing three straight. Also playing tonight is Georgia Southern at Louisiana-Monroe, which has been the league’s hard-luck team (three one-point losses) but defeated co-leader Georgia State last time out.
- One game in the Mid-American Conference and it’s a battle for position in the tough East Division with Kent State at Akron (9 p.m., ESPNU).
Have a great Friday.
Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam
