Don’t be misled by smoke screens after the selection of this year’s NCAA Tournament field.
When we wrote up our expected storylines from the selections for the 2019 NCAA Tournament, we might’ve missed including one more. A story you’re likely to hear after the picks tonight is that conference tournament upsets cost teams like Belmont or UNC Greensboro spots in this year’s Big Dance.
And that will be a load of bunk.
Even with surprise winners in leagues like the Atlantic 10, Pac-12 and West Coast Conference, there is more than enough room for teams like the Bruins and Spartans. This year’s NCAA field is almost certain to include teams with very flawed resumes, poor overall performance against the committee’s sacred Quadrant 1, and a whole bunch of losses giving them ugly records.
Alabama is 18-15. Florida is 19-15. Ohio State is 19-14. Baylor and Oklahoma are 19-13. Louisville and Syracuse are 20-13.
We’re projecting all of those teams will be in the field. As of Selection Sunday, those seven teams-some of who will likely get in comfortably-are a combined 26-71 against Quadrant 1. In a healthy sample size, when these teams play Quadrant 1 games, they lose 73.2% of the time.
What do we seriously expect such teams to do in the NCAA Tournament? Does that really sound like the mark of a Final Four contender?
One thing believed here is that, on the morning of Selection Sunday 2019, there are still a number of spots in the field that can go either way. Though the committee has probably already made its choices, we estimate 11 spots that we would still call ‘open’ counting automatic bids, at-large locks and near-locks.
Amidst those 11 spots, almost any team on that list that we’re projecting ‘in’ would surprise very few if they didn’t get chosen. Baylor and Syracuse might be the closest things to locks, but other than that it essentially comes down to committee preferences.
The numbers can be looked at any way one chooses. Cases can easily be made for most any team on the fence. The committee has been very clear what it prefers the last five years, and we’re expecting the same until proven otherwise.
That’s good news for middling majors the likes of Alabama and Florida and unfortunate yet again for teams like Belmont and UNC Greensboro. The Bruins and Spartans are a combined 51-11 this season, but what they don’t have are quite as many of the occasional high-quality wins that teams like Alabama and Florida have picked up while also missing many chances in them.
Is it Belmont or UNC Greensboro’s fault that they can’t get teams like, say, Ohio State to play at Belmont, to settle once and for all whether a team like the Bruins are worthy of at-large selection? Of course not. But as long as the committee continues to give the Ohio States the benefit of the doubt even as they duck those games, all one can do is hope for change out of the goodness of committee members’ hearts.
Once again, we don’t do daily or weekly (or even monthly) bracket projections here. There are plenty of others who do, many doing an outstanding job of it. We’re not asleep during the season, though, constantly following the sport from a national angle and tracking results and data regularly.
This is our final guess at the field (with some commentary) on this Sunday morning of Selection Sunday. While this isn’t the same bracketology as most do, we enjoy doing it. Following brackets all year is fun and certainly keeps fans engaged. But this method allows us to keep a clearer head about ratings, records and information (a.k.a. we have no preconceived notions from a team’s profile earlier in the season). And we’re also more than happy to opine about not just who the committee will vote in, but who should and shouldn’t make it.
Last year we picked 66 of the 68 teams in the field. We missed having Oklahoma State and USC in and Arizona State and Syracuse out. The year before we hit 67 of 68.
The obvious (50 teams total)
Automatics (26 after Saturday, will be 32 total): Abilene Christian (Southland), Bradley (MVC), Buffalo (MAC), UC Irvine (Big West), Colgate (Patriot), Duke (ACC), Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC), Gardner-Webb (Big South), Iona (MAAC), Iowa State (Big 12), Liberty (Atlantic Sun), Montana (Big Sky), Murray State (OVC), New Mexico State (WAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Northeastern (CAA), Northern Kentucky (Horizon); Old Dominion (C-USA), Oregon (Pac-12), Prairie View A&M (SWAC), Saint Mary’s (WCC), Utah State (MWC), Vermont (America East), Villanova (Big East), Wofford (Southern).
Still to come Sunday are the American, Atlantic 10, Big Ten, Ivy League, SEC and Sun Belt tourney finals.
At-large locks (21):
AAC: Cincinnati, Houston
ACC: Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big East: Marquette
Big Ten: Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech
SEC: Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga
Three of the remaining six automatic bids are certain to come out of this pot of at-large locks (AAC, Big Ten, SEC).
The near-locks. Suppose there’s some chance could be left out, but highly unlikely (seven teams):
Iowa: The Hawkeyes’ 4-10 mark against the top quadrant isn’t great. Still, 7-0 against Quadrant 2 certainly is. Premium wins over Michigan and Iowa State also are likely worth a lot. It’s far from an awesome resume, but it’s certainly good enough, especially this year.
Louisville: Many teams in this category don’t have all that great of records against Quadrant 1, and the Cardinals fall in that group (4-11). What Louisville does have is big-time wins-at North Carolina and (Justin Robinson-less) Virginia Tech and at home against Michigan State. Add in the No. 3-ranked strength of schedule and the Cards are just fine.
Minnesota: The Golden Gophers are a not great 5-10 against Quadrant 1 but have two wins over Purdue, one over Wisconsin and another over Washington. They also excelled vs. Quadrant 2 (7-2), and though their road record shows as 2-9 on the NCAA’s nitty gritty sheet, Minnesota is 6-1 on neutral courts. Unlike most, the Gophers played well late and have earned their spot in the field.
Nevada: The Wolf Pack’s resume, as many have noted, does not match that of a team that has been in the top 20 all season. Still, the record is 29-4, and anyone who has seen it play knows this is a dangerous team capable of a deep run in March. If Nevada is seeded too low, some higher seed that might get stuck with them early won’t be happy about it.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are another team with one of those 4-10 marks against Quadrant 1, but they’re 6-2 against Quadrant 2. The best wins are Kansas and-believe it or not-Wofford. The conference record stinks, but for us they deserve the benefit of the doubt because, unlike so many schools like it, Oklahoma played road games against solid teams like North Texas and Texas-Rio Grande Valley, and won them too.
Seton Hall: The Pirates should be a lock. They’re 7-8 against Quadrant 1-far better than most-and defeated Kentucky, Villanova and Marquette (twice). Their NET is low and many thought they were on the bubble even a week ago, but their Big East tourney run should’ve clinched it.
Washington: The Huskies’ resume is essentially based entirely on their conference, which probably wouldn’t even be inside the top 10 leagues if it didn’t have the money to schedule so favorably. They’re 2-4 in Quadrant 1 games, with the lone wins coming at Oregon and Colorado. Washington is 8-3 against Quadrant 2, but those numbers are probably inflated too coming as they did against a poor Pac-12. The Huskies also laid a golden egg in the Pac-12 tourney final. We’re guessing the Pac-12 title, as well as playing close against Gonzaga and Minnesota even in losses will be enough to get them in.
That puts us at 57 teams in the field, leaving 11 spots still open.
On the fence. In contention for the final 11 spots. We cast a wide net here, to cover anyone who may have a remote chance or at least should be up for brief discussion:
Alabama, Arizona State, Baylor, Belmont, Central Florida, Clemson, Creighton, Florida, Furman, Georgetown, Indiana, Lipscomb, Mississippi, UNC Greensboro, North Carolina State, Ohio State, St. John’s, Syracuse, Temple, TCU, Texas, VCU, Xavier
Bubble-in (11 teams). The predictions here
Alabama: The Crimson Tide are 3-10 against Quadrant 1, but they have a win over Kentucky and also victories over Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Bama is also 7-3 against Quadrant 2 and played the 14th-ranked strength of schedule, as Avery Johnson continues to have no fear playing good teams from outside the Collusion 5 sphere. (Wins include Liberty and Murray State, and the Tide also played UCF and Georgia State). We’re guessing they slip in despite a very poor 18-15 overall record.
Arizona State: Like last year, the Sun Devils will likely ride early season performance all the way to the NCAAs despite performing well below that level the next two months. Wins over Kansas, Mississippi State and Utah State indeed are good. Losses to Princeton, Vanderbilt and Washington State (two of those at home) are not. Objectively, an 8-3 mark against Quadrant 2 is a fair backing point for the 3-3 record against the top quadrant. Subjectively, this is not the same team it was before Christmas, and the committee shouldn’t be pretending otherwise.
Baylor: The Bears are yet another team with a poor Quadrant 1 record (4-9) but they’re also 8-1 against quad 2. There were two early-season Quadrant 4 home losses to Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, and one supposes the committee could use them to make a point again about how they want every game to count the same. We’re guessing, though, that the premium wins over Texas Tech and Iowa State (twice) will do it for the committee.
Central Florida: The Knights’ resume isn’t spectacular-2-5 vs. Quadrant 1-but a road win at Houston is gold, and a home win over Cincinnati helps too. Aside from that, though, perhaps the biggest win is one over fellow fence-sitter Alabama. There’s only one thing even close to a bad loss (against Florida Atlantic by a point in early November). UCF’s steadiness deserves to be rewarded.
Florida: The Gators likely will get in based on those two wins over LSU. The 10-8 road/neutral record is promising. The 4-12 mark against Quadrant 1 is not good, the same goes for overall 19-15 record, and the truth is other than those two wins over the Tigers, there’s not much there-the next best win is at Alabama.
Mississippi: Ole Miss will probably get in the field as much based on its reputation this season as anything else. The Rebels have been a great story, that there is no denying, and they’ve received plenty of attention for it. The facts are Kermit Davis’s team is 4-10 against Quadrant 1 and 7-12 overall vs. the top two quadrants. The non-conference schedule wasn’t that strong, either. We’re pretty sure the Rebels will get in, and probably comfortably. Whether they should is a far different question.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are yet another team with a poor Quadrant 1 record-just 4-10-and there’s really only two high-quality win: at Cincinnati to open the season, and Iowa at home in late February. Really, this resume screams NIT.
St. John’s: The Johnnies have done almost everything imaginable to play their way out of the field. Still, two wins over Marquette and another over Villanova among a 5-7 Quadrant 1 record are likely enough. If SJU doesn’t get in, though, it will have no one to blame but itself.
Syracuse: Many have operated with the idea that the Orange are a lock for some time, and they’ll probably get in. Let’s be clear, though: the resume is far from impressive. The Cuse is 3-9 against Quadrant 1, 3-2 vs. quad 2 and still has two Quadrant 3 losses. The strength of schedule is strong and there’s the win over Duke. Other than that? It’s a lot thinner than many think.
Temple: The Owls are our predicted last team in. Our initial inclination was that they would be safe, but the truth is that, in the committee’s eyes, the resume is probably resting essentially on home wins over Houston and Central Florida. Otherwise, Temple has a 2-6 mark vs. Quadrant 1. That AAC tourney loss to Wichita State really hurt. Easily this bid could go to a North Carolina State or TCU, or maybe a Belmont if the committee is kind to teams like it.
VCU: The Rams had the misfortune of losing Marcus Evans early in their Atlantic 10 quarterfinal loss. The resume has slipped some of late and now has just two quadrant 1 wins (in four chances) as Temple has slipped. VCU dominated the A-10 and notably tried to play a tough non-conference schedule (at Virginia, at Texas, at St. John’s, at Old Dominion, Temple on a neutral floor plus College of Charleston at home). It deserves to be rewarded, but it’s going to be very close.
Bubble-out. We’re guessing these teams miss the field.
Belmont: The Bruins’ resume deserves to be in, even as it has slipped slightly in just the past couple days. It’s still a team that has a 2-2 mark vs. quad 1, 3-1 vs. quad 2, and 13 road/neutral wins. The quadrant 1 & 2 marks should be telling; if Belmont can post those marks in fairly limited opportunities while playing just one of the eight at home, there’s no reason not to think they could’ve won 5-6 games if they got as many opportunities as richer programs. The bottom line is the committee has been downright hostile to teams like the Bruins in recent years, and we’re assuming the same this year until proven otherwise.
Clemson: The Tigers should be an easy case: they’re 1-10 against Quadrant 1. Plenty of opportunities, but other than a home win over Virginia Tech (which was missing Justin Robinson, if the committee worries about that), Clemson missed them all. A similar resume for Louisville last year just about got in, though, so never say never.
Creighton: The Bluejays’ chances have probably waned as leagues like the Atlantic 10, Pac-12 and WCC have claimed extra bids. The resume is flimsy anyway with a 3-10 mark vs. Quadrant 1 and a rather middling 6-4 record vs. quad 2 as well. A 17-14 overall record is just not enough.
Furman: The Paladins are 1-5 against Quadrant 1, 21-2 against everyone else. The one win was impressive-at Villanova-but the committee has made quite clear its narrow-minded approach in recent years that top level wins are king. It’s unlikely that just one will help Furman, regardless of the fact that five of those six quad 1 opportunities were on the road.
Georgetown: The Hoyas probably won’t get in, but we’re guessing it might be closer than many think. They’re a reasonable 5-6 against Quadrant 1 and 6-5 vs. Quadrant 2. There are two Quadrant 3 losses, the NET itself (80) is bad and there hasn’t been much buzz about them all year. But it wouldn’t stun us if Georgetown snuck in.
Indiana: Everyone is pointing at the Hoosiers’ six Quadrant 1 wins (including one downright inexplicable one against a 14-18 Penn State team). What doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough is that IU is a combined 8-15 against the top two quadrants, including 2-6 vs. Quadrant 2. That poor record should keep the Hoosiers well out of the field. Should.
Lipscomb: The Bisons are 2-3 against Quadrants 1 and 2, but their wins are not of the premium variety. The win at TCU ought to give them some leverage in head-to-head comparisons with the Horned Frogs, but Lipscomb also lost twice to rival Belmont and was beaten handily on the road at Clemson, too. The Bisons did schedule well out of conference (there’s also a win at SMU and a blowout win over Vermont) but a late loss to Florida Gulf Coast and a home loss at Liberty likely sealed their fate.
UNC Greensboro: Much like Furman. The Spartans are 2-6 against Quadrant 1, 24-0 against quads 2 through 4. Unfortunately, the committee has proven in recent years that all it cares about is Quadrant 1. Regardless of the fact that seven of those eight Quadrant 1 opportunities came away from home, it’s unlikely that the committee will like UNCG.
North Carolina State: Most know by now that the Wolfpack have the worst non-conference strength of schedule in the country. Not as known is they’re also a poor 3-9 vs. Quadrant 1 (one of them is a paper tiger win over 14-18 Penn State). The best wins are Auburn at home, Clemson at home and in the ACC tourney and Syracuse at home. Though 5-0 vs. quad 2, the Pack also has two Quadrant 3 losses. We know N.C. State pumped up its NET by blowing out bad teams out of conference. The bottom line is: it would set a bad, bad precedent if the committee rewards N.C. State’s non-conference schedule, which was loaded with cupcakes no matter how much some try to argue otherwise.
TCU: See Creighton. The Horned Frogs might’ve had a better chance before the conference tourney upsets. Still, they’re just 3-9 against Quadrant 1. There are two wins over Iowa State plus victories over bubble types like Florida, Baylor and Texas. We wouldn’t be stunned if the Frogs snuck in.
Texas: For all the talk about Indiana, the truth is that if the Longhorns had won even one more game this season, they’d have a better resume than the Hoosiers and would at least be worthy of serious consideration. Their current marks of 5-10 vs. Quadrant 1 and 4-5 vs. quad 2 would likely be improved, but the strength of schedule (sixth) is also far superior to Indiana’s. As it is, a .500 record means the Horns should be decisively out. It would be one horrendous precedent for the committee to set to take a team that is 16-16.
Xavier: That the Musketeers even get to this list is an accomplishment, given where they were a few weeks ago. Xavier is 4-9 against Quadrant 1, won at home over Villanova and wins on the road at Seton Hall and St. John’s are not bad. Just not enough not enough to combat a 5-4 mark vs. quad 2, two Quadrant 3 losses, and an overall poor 18-15 record.
Bubble-in, but should be out:
Alabama: An 18-15 record better mean a team has some special qualities in its resume to still get in. Other than a home win over Kentucky, the Crimson Tide really doesn’t have them.
Florida: The Gators show flashes but overall are a mediocre (19-15) team that is relying essentially on two wins over LSU, one of which came with the Tigers playing without their head coach. That’s not enough from here.
Ohio State: Another mediocre record (19-14). The Buckeyes’ case rests almost entirely on winning at Cincinnati in November. The last several months they’ve looked little like an NCAA tourney team.
Bubble-out, but should be in:
Belmont: The Bruins are 26-5, including 12-3 in true road games. The loss to Murray State in the OVC final came with first team all-conference center Nick Muszynski injured and out, and one of its two Quadrant 3 losses at Wisconsin-Green Bay came on the road 1 1/2 days after an overtime win at Samford, a 900-mile trip. This team blew out most of its competition in the OVC. It belongs in the field
Furman: The Paladins won at Villanova, at MVC regular season champion Loyola Chicago, and were more competitive than the final score indicated in a loss at LSU. Furman is 25-7 against D-I competition and was a strong third in a very good Southern Conference. Reward winning.
UNC Greensboro: See Furman. Seriously though, we acknowledge these two teams’ missing out on a fair share of Quadrant 1 chances and would be inclined to say both deserve to come up just short. Except: of the 14 Quadrant 1 games between them, just two were at home-each teams’ games against Wofford. When neither gets serious chances in these games at home, you have to look at the rest of the resume. Both dominated: Furman is 21-2 against quads 2-4; UNCG is even better at 24-0. It deserves to be recognized, especially the number of road wins by both teams.
Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam
