We’ll start with the obligatory disclaimer: accuracy isn’t the real goal here. There is so much unknown at this point, from who will leave early for the NBA Draft, who will stay, who will transfer, and where high school players that haven’t committed as of yet end up. With the NBA Draft, there is annually a player or two who projects to go high but opts to come back to school, so our best guesses are just that – guesses.
But even with all of that, this can be a good and fun exercise. We get a sense of who looks to be in the best place depending on what is still to be decided. So let’s make the first pass at a preseason top 25 for 2019-20.
1. Virginia
The national champions had just one scholarship senior in the just-completed season, but should lose De’Andre Hunter to the NBA Draft since he is projected to go in the lottery. It would be a little surprising if anyone else besides Ty Jerome were to leave early, and Jack Salt is the only senior who departs. With the stellar perimeter trio of Jerome (if he returns), Kyle Guy and Kihei Clark all back, along with some solid support up front with the likes of Braxton Key, Mamadi Diakite and Jay Huff, you can expect more great defense that is this program’s trademark, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them playing on the final night of the season again next season.
2. Michigan State
Don’t expect the Spartans to fall apart next season at all. They will certainly miss Kenny Goins and Matt McQuaid, but those are the only seniors and the only underclassman who seems a solid candidate to leave for the NBA Draft is Nick Ward, and he’s far from a given. Cassius Winston should be back to run the show again, while Ward, Xavier Tillman and Aaron Henry lead the way up front. If Joshua Langford stays healthy after they got the Final Four without having him for most of the season, just imagine what they can do with him and Kyle Ahrens healthy again and freshmen who add depth.
3. Kentucky
As is usually the case, you can expect the Wildcats to see a few players walk out the door to the NBA Draft. In this case, P.J. Washington is one, and Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro could as well, but any others would be a bit surprising. Ashton Hagans settled the point guard spot and set the tone defensively, while there is still a world of untapped potential up front in Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery. Kahlil Whitney, Tyrese Maxey and Dontaie Allen should all make an impact right away as well, and Bucknell graduate transfer Nate Sestina should be very much like Reid Travis was to this past season’s team.
4. Maryland
After a fine season where the Terrapins were no small part of the Big Ten’s resurgence, they should be a big part of what happens there next season. Bruno Fernando may leave for the NBA Draft, but if he does, the Terrapins shouldn’t take a big hit there as they will bring back all but two seniors who barely played. Anthony Cowan Jr., Eric Ayala, Darryl Morsell and Aaron Wiggins lead a deep perimeter unit, Jalen Smith will return up front and the Terrapins’ recruiting class features twin big men Makhi and Makhal Mitchell, the former of whom is much better and should make an impact right away if needed.
5. Duke
There’s no reason to believe any of Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett or Cam Reddish will be back. But Tre Jones says he will return, and he’ll run the show with Javin DeLaurier, Marques Bolden, Jack White and a good recruiting class that features big man Vernon Carey and wing Wendell Moore, and you have to figure will still get another addition. Right now, it’s hard to put this team up there as a national title contender since they lacked depth this year, but that should change in the weeks to come.
6. Tennessee
The big question facing the Vols right now is whether or not Grant Williams will return. With Rick Barnes still running the show, if Williams returns this team should not fall far with Williams and what will be a senior perimeter trio of Jordan Bone (if he returns), Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden all returning and Josiah James ready to make an impact right away.
7. Florida
The Gators were maddeningly inconsistent in 2018-19, but should certainly be better next season. They will lose three of their top four scorers, but KeVaughn Allen and Jalen Hudson are not irreplaceable and newcomers Scottie Lewis and Tre Mann are good enough to make fans forget about the departed quickly. Andrew Nembhard has the makings of a nice floor leader and should only get better now that he has a year under his belt, as should classmate Noah Locke, who will be their top returning scorer. They should manage to make up for losses of Keith Stone and Kevarrius Hayes up front, in part with freshman Omar Payne.
8. Iowa
The Hawkeyes started the season off really well, and got going during Big Ten play, but faded down the stretch. They regrouped in time to beat Cincinnati and give Tennessee all they could handle after a big early deficit in the NCAA Tournament. They did all of this with just one senior in Nicholas Baer, so a team that has a lot of experience together should return mostly intact next season. That means leading scorer and rebounder Tyler Cook will lead the way if he returns, with Luke Garza, Jordan Bohannon (Mr. Clutch), Joe Wieskamp and Isaiah Moss among the main support. This team should be very deep and among the best challengers to Michigan State in the Big Ten.
9. Michigan
It’s possible that the NBA may snag someone early such as Ignas Brazdeikis, but the only fourth-year player on this team is Charles Matthews, who started the season looking like an All-American but wasn’t the same player down the stretch. He could return, however, and he would boost this team even further, but even if he doesn’t, there should be plenty returning to win with, from Zavier Simpson and Jordan Poole on the perimeter to Jon Teske and Isaiah Livers up front. John Beilein remains on the bench, and that is no small factor as well.
10. Louisville
Chris Mack’s first season at the helm was better than many could have expected given that there was a cloud hanging over the program from Rick Pitino’s firing as a result of the FBI investigation, as well as the NCAA stripping the program of the 2013 national championship. But the Cardinals were a solid NCAA Tournament team, and with a great recruiting class entering, will be even better next season. The big question is if Jordan Nwora and Steven Enoch will return, especially the former. If they do, the Cardinals will be a solid top 10 team.
11. Arizona
A lot depends on what happens with Sean Miller and any aftermath, but the Wildcats should be a much different – and better – team next season, including from a talent standpoint. They’ll start with holdovers Brandon Williams, Brandon Randolph and Chase Jeter, but a top-notch recruiting class headlined by Josh Green and Nico Mannion will provide a big boost. If there isn’t a big disruption, the Wildcats should be one of the favorites in the Pac-12.
12. Xavier
The Musketeers figured to take a step back this season, and they did just that – but they came alive late to once again finish with at least a .500 record in conference play, something they have done 36 years in a row. Next season, it wouldn’t be a stretch to pick them as favorites in the Big East. They will return their top four scorers, top two rebounders and top three assist men, then add in a nice recruiting class that will add depth.
13. Baylor
Only three teams in the country had fewer returning letterwinners than the Bears did in 2018-19, so this was sure to be a team that was figuring things out for much of the season even if they stayed healthy. Now, you can figure that they will get Tristan Clark back to go along with Mario Kegler, Jared Butler, Devonte Bandoo, Mark Vital and Freddie Gillespie, while Macio Teague becomes eligible after sitting out. Add in the way this program always seems to have the next man ready when someone moves on – in this case, Makai Mason and King McClure are the departures – along with the resilience they showed this year, and the Bears should be among the top Big 12 teams.
14. Marquette
The thinking here is that Markus Howard will return, which means the Golden Eagles would figure to return their top eight players and add Utah State transfer Koby McEwen, who will be a solid addition to the perimeter unit. The Hauser brothers are solid supports, Theo John remains the rim protector and Ed Morrow is the warrior inside. They should be right there with Xavier and Villanova in the Big East once again.
15. Texas
The Longhorns’ NIT title came after a season where they were consistently inconsistent, getting nice wins but head-scratching losses and letting some games get away. Next year’s team will be more experienced on the whole, though Kerwin Roach II and Dylan Osetkowski are not small losses and Jaxson Hayes is likely to depart for the NBA Draft. But Matt Coleman III, Courtney Ramey and Jase Febres give them a solid nucleus that gained more valuable experience in their NIT championship run.
16. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs will still be the pick to rule the West Coast Conference, but they figure to take a pretty good personnel hit this time around. Josh Perkins is done and Rui Hachimura should be off to the NBA, as should Brandon Clarke, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if Zach Norvell went as well given how weak the draft should be. Their leading returning scorer might end up being Cody Kispert. But if Killian Tillie is healthy all year, he’s a solid piece up front alongside Filip Petrusev, who showed promise as a freshman, and the Bulldogs already have one of the nation’s best recruiting classes and might very well add a transfer or two. The question will be if anyone can settle the point with Perkins gone, and that’s not a trivial matter in college basketball.
17. Arizona State
Luguentz Dort is probably off to the NBA, but he and Zylan Cheatham will be the only significant losses from this roster. Remy Martin is the leader, and he along with Rob Edwards, Romello White and Kimani Lawrence are a solid group to build around. They add Jaelen House, the son of former star Eddie, along with junior college star Alonzo Verge Jr. to lead the newcomers.
18. Kansas
A lot can change, but right now it’s hard to pick Kansas very high even if you figure they will find a way. The reality is the Jayhawks were not what they usually are this season, and then watched the Lawson brothers both move on – Dedric is off to the NBA Draft and K.J. is transferring again. Udoka Azubuike is a wild card, because he could leave given that his injury history adds risk or stay because his stock is low. But they still have talent on the perimeter with Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes (who should be better with a year under his belt), Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji all back. The big question is what the frontcourt will look like and if it will include an appreciably better David McCormack, who was serviceable but needs to get better. The Jayhawks are in the mix to add a late player or two from the high school ranks, but if they don’t, entering the season not as Big 12 favorites might not be the worst thing about their situation.
19. VCU
The Rams’ great run this year was a bit unexpected, but such success next season will not be. Mike Rhoades will watch just two players walk out the door from this team, and neither was more than a bit player. With Marcus Evans, De’Riante Jenkins, Isaac Vann and Marcus Santos-Silva all returning as double-digit scorers and four more quality players right behind them, the Rams should be the preseason favorites in the Atlantic 10.
20. Oregon
If Louis King returns, the Ducks will jump a bit. Although they could stay in a weak draft, Peyton Pritchard and Kenny Wooten seem more likely to return, and they along with. They will certainly miss Paul White and Ehab Amin, while they won’t miss Bol Bol so much because they barely played with him. Victor Bailey Jr. and Will Richardson will be among the perimeter keys, and Chris Duarte should play right away coming in from junior college. Miles Norris and Francis Okoro showed promise as freshmen up front, but they’ll get pushed by C.J. Walker, who figures to make an impact right away, as well as Isaac Johnson and Chandler Lawson, two other highly-touted newcomers. There will be plenty of talent in Eugene again next season.
21. Villanova
The makeover from the championship years continues on the Main Line, with Phil Booth and Eric Paschall now gone along with Joe Cremo and Jahvon Quinerly. Quinerly never fit in with what Jay Wright was trying to do, so he isn’t a big loss, though losing him is a hit from a talent standpoint. They have plenty of talent returning, including some who had injuries and/or had to wait their turn, but none have the experience and intangibles that Booth and Paschall had. A good class of newcomers will also help, but they may not enter the season as Big East favorites this time.
22. NC State
The Wolfpack were a polarizing team in the discussion of the NCAA Tournament bubble due to their non-conference schedule, but the Wolfpack should have a chance next season with Torin Dorn the only significant contributor that they lose, although Wyatt Walker was third on the team in rebounding and also departs along with Eric Lockett. A little will depend on whether or not Jalen Lecque arrives on campus, as he is looking into whether or not he is eligible for the NBA Draft as a prep school player. If he does, he will be a great addition to a strong perimeter unit. They will bring back one of the best point guards in the ACC in Markell Johnson, and C.J. Bryce, Braxton Beverly and Devon Daniels will return alongside him. D.J. Funderburk leads the holdovers up front, and Kentucky transfer Sacha Killeya-Jones will help as an experienced Division I player.
23. Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga was light years better than everyone else in the West Coast Conference this past season, but that doesn’t appear likely next season in part because the Gaels should be better. They will miss Jordan Hunter, but that’s the only notable loss. They will return a star in Jordan Ford and solid supports alongside him with Tanner Krebs and Tommy Kuhse, while Malik Fitts broke out and will lead the frontcourt next year with some good help from Elijah Thomas and Matthias Tass. It looks more and more like Randy Bennett will still patrol the sideline as well, which is one more plus.
24. Texas Tech
After this past season, how do you not pick this team as at least a preseason top 25 team? At least this time around, they figure to have a few players return, though they will still lose key pieces in Matt Mooney, Tariq Owens, Norense Odiase and Brandone Francis, and Jarrett Culver should be off to the NBA Draft. But they will return Davide Moretti and promising younger players Kyler Edwards and Deshawn Corprew on the perimeter, which isn’t a bad place to start. They also bring in a nationally ranked recruiting class led by junior college transfer Khalid Thomas, two guards from Texas and a big man, and if history is a guide, they will land a graduate transfer or two who will also help a la Mooney. They also had Khavon Moore and Kevin McCullar redshirting. As long as they defend the way they have, they will have a chance.
25. Wichita State
The Shockers were in a definite rebuild this season, but they closed it out well by making a run to New York in the NIT. They did so with a trio of freshmen on the perimeter who should all be back to anchor them, and as a result, they shouldn’t miss Markis McDuffie as much as they might under other circumstances. Teddy Allen will be eligible and should also help them after he tried to get eligible this past season, and as long as Gregg Marshall is coaching them up, they will be a team to be reckoned with.
The next five: Auburn, Florida State, TCU, Houston, Seton Hall
