2018-19 WAC Post-Mortem

The Western Athletic Conference continues to get better.

Unfortunately for eight members of the conference, so does New Mexico State.

The 2018-19 season was yet another renaissance year for the WAC, still a hidden gem success story that hasn’t received the notoriety it deserves. The WAC showed staying power in 2018-19, sitting solidly in 16th among NCAA Division I conferences in both the NCAA’s new NET ranking and the old RPI (per WarrenNolan.com). That was just one spot behind its finish in the RPI a year earlier, and in fact the WAC was ever-so-close to overtaking the conference full of its former members, finishing just .0007 behind the Mountain West.

In fact, WAC teams finished with a 6-3 record against the Mountain West. They also were a more-than respectable 4-5 vs. the vastly richer Pac-12. The league also dominated regional peers such as the Big Sky (9-2 record) and the Big West (6-1) and went 9-4 against the Summit League, including a 6-3 win in a head-to-head challenge.

Seven of the league’s nine teams posted winning records and went to the postseason. (Yes, six of the seven were in the CBI or CIT, some pooh bears might point out. To which we’d counter: 78% of membership playing in March is impressive by any standard.) Four of them won at least 20 games. Three teams finished inside the NET top 100. Two were inside the RPI top 70.

And this is all from a conference that ranked 30th of 32 Division I leagues in the conference RPI four years ago, and three years before that appeared in serious danger of going out of in business.

With a member widely considered on the rise (Grand Canyon) and unsung but capable programs like Utah Valley and Cal State Bakersfield, it’s taken considerable legwork by a number of schools to move the WAC from the D-I depths to being a solid mid-level league nationally. Still, even as others have raised their games, New Mexico State has continued to as well.

With four starters gone, including arguably the WAC’s top two players in Jemerrio Jones and Zach Lofton, it was thought to be a year when the Aggies were ripe to be overtaken, and in some circles Grand Canyon was a chic pick to win the WAC entering the season.

Nope. A year after winning 28 games and threatening the national rankings, New Mexico State was even better. The Aggies finished 30-5, lost just once in conference play and won the WAC tourney and the league’s NCAA Tournament automatic berth for a remarkable seventh time in eight years.

New Mexico State did it with almost mind-boggling balance and unselfishness. A whopping 13 different players averaged at least 10 minutes per game, and only one more than 25 minutes per contest (point guard A.J. Harris, just over the threshold at 25.5 mpg). Just one player averaged more than 10 points per game (junior guard Terrell Brown, at 11.3 ppg). Ten different players led the team in scoring in a game. One literally never knew where the lightning could strike from with the Aggies.

Head coach Chris Jans regularly rode hot hands, meaning players’ minutes could fluctuate from night to night. It takes some kind of buy-in and some self-sacrifice to get a team to excel in such a system, but NMSU did and was a pleasure to watch-and successful, winning 19 straight before an NCAA Tournament first round loss to Auburn.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
For the ninth consecutive year, the WAC played its postseason tourney at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, which continues to be a solid neutral site for a tourney the way they ought to be, perfectly symmetrical with eight teams on hand.

The top four seeds all advanced out of the quarterfinals, though two of them had some trouble. Top seed New Mexico State blasted No. 8 Chicago State 86-49 and 4 seed Texas-Rio Grande Valley earned its first-ever win in the event, topping fifth-seeded Cal State Bakersfield 85-70 thanks to 56.3% shooting. No. 2 Utah Valley received a big scare, though, trailing seventh-seeded Missouri-Kansas City much of the second half and by as many as nine, but finished the game on a 12-2 run for a 71-64 win. The fourth quarter also saw higher seed Grand Canyon trailing No. 6 Seattle at halftime, but the third-seeded Antelopes got 31 points from Carlos Johnson-22 in the second half-in an eventual 84-75 win.

The semifinals included a pair of excellent games, and New Mexico State got a test before moving on. UTRGV fell behind by 19 in the second half but clawed back within three before the Aggies finally finished off a 79-72 win led by Terrell Brown’s 19 points. The second semi saw Grand Canyon’s Johnson explode again, with the junior guard scoring 35 points. The Lopes trailed at halftime but had all the answers throughout a close second half and held off Utah Valley 78-74, setting up GCU and New Mexico State in the final for the second straight year.

Grand Canyon got off to a smoking start in Saturday night’s title game, scoring the first eight points of the game. The Lopes were unable to keep that pace, though, and New Mexico State slowly asserted control. Trevelin Queen starred off of the Aggies’ ultra-deep bench-a career-high 27 points, including six three-pointers. Ivan Aurrecoechea also added 16 off the bench, unsung Clayton Henry scored 14 points with four triples, and NMSU hit 17 three-pointers in all, pulling away to win going away, 89-57 for its third straight WAC tourney crown and incredible eighth of the decade.

Postseason Awards
Player of the Year: Jake Toolson, G, Jr., Utah Valley
Defensive Player of the Year: Javon Levi, G, So., Texas-Rio Grande Valley
Freshman of the Year: Wyatt Lowell, F, Utah Valley
Newcomer of the Year: Milan Acquaah, G, So., Cal Baptist
Don Haskins Coach of the Year: Chris Jans, New Mexico State

All-Conference Team
Milan Acquaah, G, So., Cal Baptist
Terrell Brown, G, Jr., New Mexico State
Michael Finke, F, Sr., Grand Canyon
Jarkel Joiner, G, So., Cal State Bakersfield
Jake Toolson, G, Jr., Utah Valley

Season Highlights

• New Mexico State won a school-record 30 games, including a 19-game winning streak to close the regular season. The Aggies also won their fourth regular season title in five years and wrapped it up with their seventh WAC tourney championship in eight years to advance to the NCAA Tournament.
• One year after tying a school record for wins, Utah Valley set a new mark with 25 wins while also winning a game in the College Basketball Invitational for the third straight season.
• Seven of the WAC’s nine teams played in the postseason, including three each in the CBI and CollegeInsider.com Tournament. The WAC finished 4-7 in those tourneys, with Utah Valley making it to the quarterfinals in the CBI and Cal State Bakersfield advancing that far in the CIT. Cal Baptist also appeared in the CBI in its first year making the transition to full Division I membership.
• WAC teams were well-represented in the NCAA national statistics. Cal State Bakersfield was second in the country in offensive rebounds per game (14.65), while Texas-Rio Grande Valley was third in steals/game (9.3) and free throws made (641) and attempted (923), fourth in total steals (345) and turnovers forced (17.7) and fifth in turnover margin (+4.9). New Mexico State also was third nationally in rebound margin (+9.3) and fifth in winning percentage (85.7).
• Individually, UTRGV sophomore guard Javon Levi was second in the country in steals (109) and third in steals/game (2.95).

What we expected, and it happened: Despite some preseason projections otherwise, New Mexico State was the team to beat, and it delivered. Again. We wouldn’t cop to predicting the Aggies to have won 30 games, but this is the WAC’s heavyweight and always the place to start until proven otherwise.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: Seattle took a slight step back in Jim Haysford’s second year, though there were good reasons for it. The Redhawks actually were impressive out of conference, entering WAC play with a 12-3 record and two wins over Pac-12 teams, but a rash of injuries and even a team-wide flu bug left the team with six healthy scholarship players at one point.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: We thought Utah Valley would remain competitive in the WAC, but the Wolverines were even better than that and were a solid top-100 team nationally. Also, fresh off big success first in the NAIA and most recently in NCAA Division II, Cal Baptist was a factor right away in Division I. The Lancers scored respectable non-conference wins over Oral Roberts and SE Louisiana, nearly knocked off Tulsa and UC Irvine, and in their first-ever WAC game slayed New Mexico State, the Aggies’ only conference loss this year.

Teams on the rise: Cal Baptist, Texas-Rio Grande Valley. The Lancers have a history of success, a sparkling new arena and considerable support at a fast-growing school. If that sounds quite a bit like another recent WAC addition (Grand Canyon), it should. Meanwhile, former Lon Kruger assistant Lew Hill has done tremendous work with a UTRGV program that has long struggled, going back to its days as Texas-Pan American. The Vaqueros are built from defense first, and with what should be a number of key players returning could move even further up the standings.

Team on the decline: Utah Valley. The Wolverines were up this year and appeared to be a program ready to challenge New Mexico State for conference supremacy. The outlook next year is far bleaker, though, after almost everyone jumped ship when coach Mark Pope moved on to BYU.

2019-20 WAC Outlook
First off: it has to be pointed out how badly national TV networks are missing the boat not covering this league. New Mexico State is an NCAA Tournament regular. Grand Canyon has a raucous fan environment not seen out West since UC Santa Barbara’s Thunderdome heyday. Cal Baptist’s is headed that way. Also, programs like Utah Valley and Cal State Bakersfield have proven plenty solid in recent years. There’s no way a CBS Sports Network, NBC Sports Network, or even-their current indifference towards the sport aside-ESPN can’t get this league on the air a couple times a year. This is a good conference, an entertaining one, and it would fit perfectly in a late night TV window.

PSA aside, the WAC next year once again goes through New Mexico State. The Aggies return a good share of the many who pitched in this past year. They have ballhandlers, shooters, post players, rebounding, defenders, glue guys. The only minor concern is size; NMSU could use a bit more of it when facing top-flight competition. The Aggies have been knocking on the door of an NCAA Tournament win for a couple years now. They’re 0-8 in this decade-with three of those by a single possession or in overtime-and dating back to 1993 have lost their last 12 in the Big Dance.

The competition should remain capable, if a step below New Mexico State. Grand Canyon is well on its way to perennial contender status, and the Lopes will be solid even as continued improvement offensively is necessary. Seattle did not have a single senior last year, and though shooter Matej Kavas jumped on the transfer-go-round, most others should be back, including guard Terrell Brown, who will battle the player of the same name from NMSU for the title of best Terrell Brown in the WAC. Texas-Rio Grande Valley also should be a solid first-division selection, playing sticky defense and attacking the basket relentlessly.

Utah Valley would’ve been a real challenger for the title in 2019-20, but the Wolverines have been decimated by transfers after coach Mark Pope left for BYU, including three (so far) going with him to Provo. Cal State Bakersfield is always stingy defensively but lost its top three scorers. Cal Baptist still has another three years’ wait before it’s eligible for the postseason, but the Lancers should remain competitive. UMKC is rebooting, but made an excellent hire in former Wright State coach Billy Donlon. Expect the Kangaroos to become a good defensive team under Donlon, whose teams took no prisoners when he was the coach at Wright State. Chicago State will try to make incremental progress in Lance Irvin’s second year.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam