2018-19 Big Ten Post-Mortem

The end of the 2018-19 season might’ve marked the end of an era of sorts for the Big Ten, though no one knew that when the conference’s campaign ended when Michigan State bowed out against Texas Tech in the NCAA national semifinals.

When John Beilein in May left Michigan and the college ranks to go to the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers, it meant that the battles between the Big Ten’s two schools from The Mitten State will never be quite the same. And what battles they were, over the last decade but punctuated emphatically over the last several years, including a terrific duel at the top of the standings this year.

It’s been a golden era for the series between Michigan and Michigan State, with the two claiming the last four league tourney crowns. Just in the past two years, Michigan State won two regular season titles, both schools advanced to the Final Four and Michigan made it to the national championship game last year. Going back through the 20-teens decade, the two accounted for a collective six Big Ten regular season titles, six conference tournament championships, five trips to the Final Four and two national runner-up finishes.

This year, Michigan and Michigan State both spent almost the entire season inside the national top 10, which made their regular season home-and-home one of the most anticipated in the country. Sure enough, the two met a third time in the Big Ten tournament. Spartan fans will happily note that their team won all three matchups, including a rally in the tournament final, and MSU also advanced further in the NCAA Tournament, too (the Wolverines were knocked out by Texas Tech two rounds earlier in the Sweet 16). In the bigger picture, though, the results were almost side notes to a degree in a year where the rivalry between the two went national perhaps more than ever before.

Of course, Big Ten basketball has way too much history, way too many resources and too many quality coaches to ever be defined by just two schools. In fact, it wasn’t even Michigan that tied Michigan State for the regular season title, as Purdue finished with the same 16-4 mark as the Spartans in the unbalanced conference schedules part of the season.

The Boilermakers also were a great story, barely skipping a beat despite losing four starters from the year before. Carsen Edwards was one of the top scorers in the country, and a fairly anonymous cast around him meshed into a terrific team. Matt Painter’s bunch dominated at home (15-0 record), and Edwards put the team on his back in the postseason, leading Purdue to the doorstep of the Final Four with several massive performances. The Boilers made their third straight Sweet 16 trip, a testament to the program Painter has established.

The Big Ten set a conference record with eight teams qualifying for the NCAA Tournament, yet even that achievement was almost a mild disappointment. The league finished second among conferences in the NCAA’s new NET ranking, was also the second-ranked league in the old RPI, and posted the best non-conference winning percentage of any league. Indiana and Nebraska both spent time in the national rankings early in the season before falling hard in the conference schedule, both in part due to injuries. Ohio State also sagged after a good start and nearly played its way out of the Big Dance. Even with all that, the Big Ten still posted a collective 13-8 record in the NCAA Tournament-second-most wins of any conference after the ACC’s 15-and seven of its eight entries won at least one game.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
One year after the nonsensical money grab that was the Big Ten tourney being held in that noted Midwestern stronghold of New York City, the event was back to its roots in Chicago this year, incredibly for the first time since 2015.

The Big Ten tourney is always reliable for a double-digit seed pulling an upset or two. This year’s surprising quarterfinalist was Nebraska. The 13th-seeded Cornhuskers first defeated No. 12 Rutgers 68-61, but then also led nearly wire-to-wire in knocking out 5 seed Maryland 69-61. James Palmer (24 points), Glynn Watson Jr. (19) and Isaiah Roby (15) carried almost all of the offensive load in the upset of the cold-shooting Terrapins, and the Huskers also pushed No. 4 Wisconsin in the quarterfinals before falling 66-62.

This year’s tourney was marked by quality games throughout, with nine of the 13 games decided by eight points or less, including two in overtime. No. 7 seed Minnesota’s 77-72 extra-session escape against Penn State was especially important, as the Golden Gophers fought back from an eight-point deficit late to get to overtime and advanced to face 2 seed Purdue. The final of 15 lead changes came from a Jordan Murphy three-point play, and the Gophers sweated out a three-point try at the buzzer by Carsen Edwards for a 75-73 win to effectively wrap up an NCAA tourney bid.

In an event with so many close games, the two notable exceptions were 1) games involving No. 6 seed Iowa-an 83-62 winner over 11 seed Illinois in the second round, only to be drilled 74-53 by third-seeded Michigan in the quarterfinals-and 2) the semifinals. Top-seeded Michigan State jumped out to a 17-point lead on Wisconsin and cruised to a 67-55 win, with Kenny Goins delivering a double-double (13 points, 12 rebounds). Minnesota’s run also ended in the semis, as Michigan handed out a 76-49 beating, leading by as many as 35 points late in the second half.

The championship game will go down as one of the more memorable one’s in this tourney’s 22-year history. Michigan was shooting for its third straight Big Ten tournament crown, and appeared to be well on its way with a 13-point second half lead. Michigan State fought back to tie with 7:15 left, but the Wolverines were back up five when Isaiah Livers drilled a three to make it 6-55 with 2:29 left. Michigan would not score again, and the Spartans finished the game on a 10-0 run. Matt McQuaid initiated it with a three-pointer, his seventh triple of the game and the final of his career-best 27 points. Cassius Winston scored the go-ahead layup with 28 seconds left, and Goins clinched it with two free throws with two seconds left as Michigan State prevailed 65-60. The Spartans won their fourth Big Ten tourney title of the decade and their conference-leading sixth overall.

Postseason Awards
Player of the Year: Cassius Winston, G, Jr., Michigan State
Defensive Player of the Year: Josh Reaves, G, Sr., Penn State
Freshman of the Year: Ignas Brazdeikis, F, Michigan
Sixth Man of the Year: Xavier Tillman, F, So., Michigan State
Coach of the Year: Matt Painter, Purdue

All-Conference Team
Carsen Edwards, G, Jr., Purdue
Bruno Fernando, F, So., Maryland
Ethan Happ, F, Sr., Wisconsin
Lamar Stevens, F, Jr, Penn State
Cassius Winston, G, Jr., Michigan State

Season Highlights

• Michigan State won the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles and advanced to the Final Four for the 10th time, tied for seventh-most in tournament history. The Spartans also followed rival Michigan in making it two straight years for the league having at least one Final Four team.
• The Big Ten sent a conference-record eight teams to the NCAA Tournament, besting the previous mark of seven set in 1994 and 2013. Three teams (Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue) advanced to the Sweet 16 and Purdue joined Michigan State in the Elite Eight.
• The conference was well-represented among the NCAA Division I national leaders. Individually, Maryland big man Bruno Fernando and Minnesota’s Jordan Murphy both tied for the second-most double-doubles in the country with 22 apiece. Michigan State’s Cassius Winston was second to Murray State’s Ja Morant in total assists, finishing with 291, while Michigan’s Zavier Simpson was close behind in fifth with 244. Winston also was third nationally in assists per game (7.5), while Nebraska’s James Palmer was fourth in free throw attempts (282). Purdue’s Carsen Edwards also was third in the country in total points (874) and fifth in three-pointers made (135).
• Michigan ranked second in D-I behind only Virginia in scoring defense (58.3 ppg) and also ranked only behind the Cavaliers nationally in fewest turnovers/game (9.1).. Michigan State also was third in the country in field goal percentage defense (38.1%), on the offensive end ranked third in assists per game (18.3) and also was fifth in rebound margin (+8.8). Iowa also ranked fifth in Division I in free throws made (627).
• The Big Ten did not have a consensus first team All-American but did make up three-fifths of the consensus second team, with Purdue’s Edwards, Michigan State’s Winston and Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ all receiving the honor. Winston was a first team All-American for the Associated Press.

What we expected, and it happened: Michigan State entered the season as a considerable favorite in the Big Ten, and even with a couple head-scratching losses the Spartans delivered on that promise way more than not. Also, just as expected, John Beilein built Michigan right back into a national contender even as reason said the Wolverines were due for a fall after losing much from their 2018 national runner-up.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: Indiana was in or near many preseason top 25 rankings, with Romeo Langford predicted to be right at the top of the freshman crazes for the season. Langford was good but not flawless, and as a team the Hoosiers faltered after a good start, at one point losing 11 of 12 games.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: Maybe some thought Maryland was a cinch for a return to the NCAA Tournament and the top 25, but from here the Terrapins were a pleasant surprise in becoming a solid top-five team in the conference and just missing a trip to the Sweet 16. Similar goes for Purdue, which probably deserved the benefit of the doubt after its two previous excellent years, but then made a charge after a 6-5 start and just missed that elusive first Final Four in nearly 40 years.

Teams on the rise: Purdue, Rutgers. It doesn’t get a whole lot better than three straight Sweet 16 trips including an Elite Eight this year, but Matt Painter’s Boilermakers have arrived as a perennial contender that always has to be accounted for near the top. And is that really the long ridiculed Scarlet Knights listed here? Yes, in fact Steve Pikiell’s team is going to be a chic pick next year, with some predicting their first NCAA Tournament berth since 1991. That may be a little optimistic, but indeed Pikiell has been building the Rutgers program, and

Team on the decline: Northwestern. It has only been two years, but the Wildcats’ first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance feels a lot longer ago than that. The purple & white staggered offensively and fell hard into the Big Ten’s basement this year, and now lose their top three scorers.

2019-20 Big Ten Outlook
Like most leagues at the top of the Division I food chain, some of the Big Ten’s outlook for next year relies on NBA draft decisions, and a few surprises one way or another could impact projections. Even as things stand in May, though, Michigan State looks like a strong favorite next year, and will become a prohibitive one if Nick Ward returns for another year. Cassius Winston’s return alone makes MSU a contender, Joshua Langford’s return from injury would be a major boost, and a bunch of role players around them are slated to return. Even without Ward, the Spartans could be great if Xavier Tillman keeps getting better. Tom Izzo’s team is an almost surefire preseason top 10 team.

Part of what makes Michigan State a relatively easy choice is that almost all of its top competition loses or is likely to lose big pieces. Of course, the major wild card is Michigan with John Beilein now headed to the NBA. Beilein was most certainly a system coach, and there’s a good chance a new coach will adjust if not overhaul what he did, even if one of his assistants gets the job. At the same time, returning the likes of Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske is a good starting point. Moreover: this is Michigan, one of the most recognizable names in college sports. A new coach may do things differently, but the brand name alone means this could easily remain a Big Ten frontrunner.

Iowa would be an almost-certain No. 2 if Tyler Cook came back; without him, the Hawkeyes still have plenty of shooters, but not the player most responsible for their ability to get to the line last year. Maryland would’ve been No. 2 with Bruno Fernando; likewise, the young-but-talented Terrapins are probably still a preseason top 25 team, but missing a difference-maker.

Purdue will sorely miss Carsen Edwards, of course, but also should be much more balanced and should stay solidly in the upper division. Matt Painter has earned the benefit of the doubt. Many will be watching closely the development of Trayveon Williams, to see if he makes a Caleb Swanigan-like jump in his sophomore year after some impressive flashes as a frosh. Wisconsin relied a whole lot on Ethan Happ this year; the 2019-20 season will be a referendum of sorts on Greg Gard’s tenure, as we see how he reloads or tweaks the Badgers and how much those on hand step up their games.

Ohio State will bring back budding star Kaleb Wesson and a number of other impact freshmen, and Chris Holtmann has quickly earned a reputation of squeezing the most out of his teams. Make no mistake, though, the Buckeyes were ordinary at best after their 12-1 start (8-14 the rest of the way) and were quite fortunate to receive an NCAA Tournament berth. Improvement is needed. Minnesota can probably be penciled onto the NCAA tourney bubble right now; the regularly cold-shooting and not-very-deep Gophers return four starters including Amir Coffey, but the loss of Jordan Murphy is a major blow.

Of the rest, Indiana and Rutgers will be expected to take steps forward. The same goes for Illinois, but not everyone can be above average so it won’t be easy. Nebraska will be fascinating with Fred Hoiberg coming in seen as a savior and already grabbing every transfer in sight. Penn State won’t be bad, but it’s hard to see the Nittany Lions gaining much ground, either. Northwestern is quickly falling well behind.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam